Coronavirus outbreak

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Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Snowball » 21 Mar 2020 19:31

windermereROYAL
Zip We are going to be at Italy’s numbers in a couple of weeks. Why the hell are garden centres still open and why the hell are elderly people going to them? Close them down.
The message needs to be hammered home.

I understand why supermarkets remain open but much much more should be done on home deliveries. Get the army in to help.

Horrible times ahead.


We are still some way behind our near continent neighbours with a less than 2% mortality rate, I believe Italy is something like 6%, Germany is remarkably low considering the amount of cases.




Hi Windy

Italy is officially 9%

53,578 4,825 9.01%

But, apparently OAPs dying in care-homes are not included in the statistics.



For confirmed cases the UK death rate is now 4.6%

5018 230 4.58% Death Rate
5018 233 4.64% Death Rate (EDIT 20:43 Hours) 56 died

also
the death rate (official cases) is RISING quite steeply
more than 1% in 6 days

UK Death Rates

3.56% Monday
3.64% Tuesday
3.96% Wednesday
4.41% Thursday
4.44% Friday
4.58% Saturday


I have a contact in Germany (met climbing Etna) who says Germans in Germany
are reporting 1% not the 0.3% we see here.
Last edited by Snowball on 21 Mar 2020 21:17, edited 1 time in total.

windermereROYAL
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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by windermereROYAL » 21 Mar 2020 19:36

Snowball
windermereROYAL
Zip We are going to be at Italy’s numbers in a couple of weeks. Why the hell are garden centres still open and why the hell are elderly people going to them? Close them down.
The message needs to be hammered home.

I understand why supermarkets remain open but much much more should be done on home deliveries. Get the army in to help.

Horrible times ahead.


We are still some way behind our near continent neighbours with a less than 2% mortality rate, I believe Italy is something like 6%, Germany is remarkably low considering the amount of cases.




Hi Windy

Italy is officially 9%

53,578 4,825 9.01%

But, apparently OAPs dying in care-homes are not included in the statistics.



For confirmed cases the UK death rate is now 4.6%

5018 230 4.58% Death Rate

also
the death rate (official cases) is RISING quite steeply
more than 1% in 6 days

UK Death Rates

3.56% Monday
3.64% Tuesday
3.96% Wednesday
4.41% Thursday
4.44% Friday
4.58% Saturday


I have a contact in Germany (met climbing Etna) who says Germans in Germany
are reporting 1% not the 0.3% we see here.


Yep miscalculation on my part, maths was never my strong point.

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Jagermesiter1871 » 21 Mar 2020 20:17

Snowball
windermereROYAL
Zip We are going to be at Italy’s numbers in a couple of weeks. Why the hell are garden centres still open and why the hell are elderly people going to them? Close them down.
The message needs to be hammered home.

I understand why supermarkets remain open but much much more should be done on home deliveries. Get the army in to help.

Horrible times ahead.


We are still some way behind our near continent neighbours with a less than 2% mortality rate, I believe Italy is something like 6%, Germany is remarkably low considering the amount of cases.




Hi Windy

Italy is officially 9%

53,578 4,825 9.01%

But, apparently OAPs dying in care-homes are not included in the statistics.



For confirmed cases the UK death rate is now 4.6%

5018 230 4.58% Death Rate

also
the death rate (official cases) is RISING quite steeply
more than 1% in 6 days

UK Death Rates

3.56% Monday
3.64% Tuesday
3.96% Wednesday
4.41% Thursday
4.44% Friday
4.58% Saturday


I have a contact in Germany (met climbing Etna) who says Germans in Germany
are reporting 1% not the 0.3% we see here.


Yeh but these rates are all fairly meaningless when we're not testing the majority of people who are suspected or have symptoms, no?

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Jagermesiter1871 » 21 Mar 2020 20:21

windermereROYAL
Zip We are going to be at Italy’s numbers in a couple of weeks. Why the hell are garden centres still open and why the hell are elderly people going to them? Close them down.
The message needs to be hammered home.

I understand why supermarkets remain open but much much more should be done on home deliveries. Get the army in to help.

Horrible times ahead.


We are still some way behind our near continent neighbours with a less than 2% mortality rate, I believe Italy is something like 6%, Germany is remarkably low considering the amount of cases.
We have every right to be concerned but while we have a relatively low number of cases at the moment people are of the mindset it won`t happen to them, checkout queues at the supermarkets are still crammed with no social spacing.
In conclusion the public are that uneducated b*stards until it happens to them or their families,

I`m prepared to isolate for as long as it takes no matter how uncomfortable, just hope some prick doesn`t infect me when I go shopping.


Basically food shopping is the only window of opportunity I can see for catching it which i imagine is the case for a lot. If they could get same day home delivery and shut down all shops we'd all be better off. I have no idea what level of resources that would require mind.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Snowball » 21 Mar 2020 20:50

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball
windermereROYAL
We are still some way behind our near continent neighbours with a less than 2% mortality rate, I believe Italy is something like 6%, Germany is remarkably low considering the amount of cases.




Hi Windy

Italy is officially 9%

53,578 4,825 9.01%

But, apparently OAPs dying in care-homes are not included in the statistics.



For confirmed cases the UK death rate is now 4.6%

5018 230 4.58% Death Rate

also
the death rate (official cases) is RISING quite steeply
more than 1% in 6 days

UK Death Rates

3.56% Monday
3.64% Tuesday
3.96% Wednesday
4.41% Thursday
4.44% Friday
4.58% Saturday


I have a contact in Germany (met climbing Etna) who says Germans in Germany
are reporting 1% not the 0.3% we see here.


Yeh but these rates are all fairly meaningless when we're not testing the majority of people who are suspected or have symptoms, no?


No, not meaningless. They mean, for one thing, that those being tested positive die at rate X

We may be only catching 10% (say) and it may therefore be that the overall (tested or not) rate is .43%

Whatever that multiple is in a way doesn’t matter (at least until we hit 50 million infected)...

As the total deaths rise we can predict the total deaths more and more accurately whatever the testing regime.

I think Boris was misleading or mistaken when he said 250,000 a day would be being tested. That would be almost two million a week, the whole UK population in 264 days.

AND unless they’ve changed the test they would still miss 40% of positives. If 66M were tested and 80% (50M) had it the current test would INCORRECTLY clear 20 million people!


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royals and Racers » 21 Mar 2020 21:17

From 2007 !!!!! this is part of the full article https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection
Vincent C. C. Cheng, Susanna K. P. Lau, Patrick C. Y. Woo, Kwok Yung Yuen
DOI: 10.1128/CMR.00023-07

SHOULD WE BE READY FOR THE REEMERGENCE OF SARS?
The medical and scientific community demonstrated marvelous efforts in the understanding and control of SARS within a short time, as evident by over 4,000 publications available online. Despite these achievements, gaps still exist in terms of the molecular basis of the physical stability and transmissibility of this virus, the molecular and immunological basis of disease pathogenesis in humans, screening tests for early or cryptic SARS cases, foolproof infection control procedures for patient care, effective antivirals or antiviral combinations, the usefulness of immunomodulatory agents for late presenters, an effective vaccine with no immune enhancement, and the immediate animal host that transmitted the virus to caged civets in the market at the beginning of the epidemic. Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination (375), which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.

Snowball
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 21 Mar 2020 21:21

The escalation is staggering

WHO announced new virus 31-December, we are 8 days short of three months

SARS was 9 months



Passed 300,000 Official Cases, virtually 13,000 deaths


20:43 303,001 222,001 12,944 9,707 4.27% 4.37%

That's

222,001 Non-China Cases

9,707 Non-China Deaths

4.37% and rising death-rate for confirmed cases

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 21 Mar 2020 21:24

Royals and Racers From 2007 !!!!! this is part of the full article https://cmr.asm.org/content/20/4/660

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus as an Agent of Emerging and Reemerging Infection
Vincent C. C. Cheng, Susanna K. P. Lau, Patrick C. Y. Woo, Kwok Yung Yuen
DOI: 10.1128/CMR.00023-07

SHOULD WE BE READY FOR THE REEMERGENCE OF SARS?
The medical and scientific community demonstrated marvelous efforts in the understanding and control of SARS within a short time, as evident by over 4,000 publications available online. Despite these achievements, gaps still exist in terms of the molecular basis of the physical stability and transmissibility of this virus, the molecular and immunological basis of disease pathogenesis in humans, screening tests for early or cryptic SARS cases, foolproof infection control procedures for patient care, effective antivirals or antiviral combinations, the usefulness of immunomodulatory agents for late presenters, an effective vaccine with no immune enhancement, and the immediate animal host that transmitted the virus to caged civets in the market at the beginning of the epidemic. Coronaviruses are well known to undergo genetic recombination (375), which may lead to new genotypes and outbreaks. The presence of a large reservoir of SARS-CoV-like viruses in horseshoe bats, together with the culture of eating exotic mammals in southern China, is a time bomb. The possibility of the reemergence of SARS and other novel viruses from animals or laboratories and therefore the need for preparedness should not be ignored.


Well-spotted!

There's a lot of very good stuff on SAGE UK Scientific Advisory Group

Like, for example, an average of 3,003 people per day were leaving Wuhan
mostly on vacation for each day January 1st - January 16th, totally untested

==========


ACTIVE CASES

300,001 Confirmed Cases
091,669 Recovered
012,950 Died
211,332 Still Ill <<<<<<<<<<<<<


If we had zero more infections from this moment we should expect
many further deaths (people now ill)

a minimum of another 9,028 Deaths at the current predicted death rate

20,000 at the Italian death rate.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by John Madejski's Wallet » 21 Mar 2020 21:41

Snowball I think Boris was misleading or mistaken when he said 250,000 a day would be being tested. That would be almost two million a week, the whole UK population in 264 days.

AND unless they’ve changed the test they would still miss 40% of positives. If 66M were tested and 80% (50M) had it the current test would INCORRECTLY clear 20 million people!

Where are you getting this stuff about the test missing positives? :?


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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Jagermesiter1871 » 21 Mar 2020 21:52

Snowball
Jagermesiter1871
Snowball
Hi Windy

Italy is officially 9%

53,578 4,825 9.01%

But, apparently OAPs dying in care-homes are not included in the statistics.



For confirmed cases the UK death rate is now 4.6%

5018 230 4.58% Death Rate

also
the death rate (official cases) is RISING quite steeply
more than 1% in 6 days

UK Death Rates

3.56% Monday
3.64% Tuesday
3.96% Wednesday
4.41% Thursday
4.44% Friday
4.58% Saturday


I have a contact in Germany (met climbing Etna) who says Germans in Germany
are reporting 1% not the 0.3% we see here.


Yeh but these rates are all fairly meaningless when we're not testing the majority of people who are suspected or have symptoms, no?


No, not meaningless. They mean, for one thing, that those being tested positive die at rate X

We may be only catching 10% (say) and it may therefore be that the overall (tested or not) rate is .43%

Whatever that multiple is in a way doesn’t matter (at least until we hit 50 million infected)...

As the total deaths rise we can predict the total deaths more and more accurately whatever the testing regime.

I think Boris was misleading or mistaken when he said 250,000 a day would be being tested. That would be almost two million a week, the whole UK population in 264 days.

AND unless they’ve changed the test they would still miss 40% of positives. If 66M were tested and 80% (50M) had it the current test would INCORRECTLY clear 20 million people!


25,000 a day was what he stated but even that sounds pie in the sky for the moment at least.

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Jagermesiter1871 » 21 Mar 2020 21:54

John Madejski's Wallet
Snowball I think Boris was misleading or mistaken when he said 250,000 a day would be being tested. That would be almost two million a week, the whole UK population in 264 days.

AND unless they’ve changed the test they would still miss 40% of positives. If 66M were tested and 80% (50M) had it the current test would INCORRECTLY clear 20 million people!

Where are you getting this stuff about the test missing positives? :?


Are the tests we're using not improving as well? My understanding is the testing done in china initially had on average 3 false negatives.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by John Madejski's Wallet » 21 Mar 2020 22:09

UK is using the standard WHO test, with a few minor tweaks depending on the hospital lab

But there are only so many machines to run the tests on and so many labs in which to do them

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 21 Mar 2020 23:01

If there is a lockdown the current panic buying will seem like a tea party compared to what`s coming next.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 21 Mar 2020 23:10

windermereROYAL If there is a lockdown the current panic buying will seem like a tea party compared to what`s coming next.


I can't see how it isn't coming but you are still allowed to leave the house for food shopping.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Snowball » 22 Mar 2020 00:15

John Madejski's Wallet
Snowball I think Boris was misleading or mistaken when he said 250,000 a day would be being tested. That would be almost two million a week, the whole UK population in 264 days.

AND unless they’ve changed the test they would still miss 40% of positives. If 66M were tested and 80% (50M) had it the current test would INCORRECTLY clear 20 million people!

Where are you getting this stuff about the test missing positives? :?


It started for me when I rang my doctor to say I'd tested negative (after being really unwell) and he told me that he was near-certain I had it. He then told me (paraphrasing) that experts were very unhappy with the quality of the testing.

I started Googling and found all sorts of evidence that stated that though the test didn't produce false positives it was very poor at picking up people who actually HAD the virus. One place was The Washington Post that said patients in China were getting as many as six consecutive negatives before a positive (that's patients under treatment). The WP said that it was so bad in China that their criteria for calling someone confirmed was NOT the test but based on symptoms. The average case in China was two negatives before the third test showed positive.

One contact (Sicily - we went up Etna together and he is in isolation) told me that in Sicily if you get a negative you automatically get a second test 1-2 days later because the test is a"a long way from 100% accurate"

Without trawling through the various places *I* found, here are a few examples (Googled right now)


===========

BBC: There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51491763

==========================================


A study published by a team at the Tongji Hospital in Wuhan on 26 February 2020 showed that a chest CT scan for COVID-19 has greater sensitivity (98%) than the polymerase chain reaction (71%).[21] False negative results may occur due to PCR kit failure, or due to either issues with the sample or issues performing the test. False positive results are likely to be rare.[61]

Bai Y, Yao L, Wei T, Tian F, Jin DY, Chen L, et al. (February 2020). "Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19". JAMA. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2565. PMC 7042844. PMID 32083643.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/co ... negatives/

"The accuracy rate of the test is only 30 to 50 per cent, said Wang Chen, president of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, during a CCTV interview on Wednesday." .... "Liferiver, a Shanghai-based biotech company, took 20 days from development of its kit to market launch, a company representative told the Post. Such a process usually takes two to three years."

==============================

FALSE NEGATIVES

But there is growing concern that those NATs are producing large numbers of false negatives.

In an interview with Chinese state broadcaster CCTV last week, Professor Wang Chen, an expert in critical diseases and director of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said one characteristic of the virus was that "not all of those infected by it return positive NATs".

"Even patients who definitely have the disease only come back positive 30 per cent to 50 per cent of the time," Prof Wang said. "Testing throat swabs (from potentially infected people) also returns a lot of false negatives."

Tests like NATs are especially important in people who may have contracted the virus but have not yet shown symptoms. Emerging trends in local infections mean that many such patients may have been sent home by hospitals after their NATs came back negative, doctors told Caixin.

"At the moment, more and more cases in Wuhan are flaring up collectively in family groups, and the majority are of the concealed onset type," said Dr Zhang Xiaochun, a deputy director of the medical imaging department at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, one of the institutions at the centre of the outbreak.

"They may have undergone one or even several NATs and shown no clinical symptoms, but keeping them under observation at home is bound to spread the disease further."

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east- ... 30-minutes

===========================================================================================


Hotel worker, 56, is diagnosed with coronavirus after testing negative EIGHT TIMES in 17 days during quarantine
The 56-year-old from Sichuan Province went into isolation earlier this month
Medical workers gave her eight tests, and none of them came back positive
She was found to be infected yesterday after doctors performed further tests


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ntine.html


=================================================================================

BREITBART

Dr. Nicole Saphier told Breitbart News Daily on Friday morning that the reason the U.S. had rejected coronavirus test kits from abroad is that they had a 48% false negative rate, meaning sick people would believe, falsely, they were fine.
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/0 ... tive-rate/


https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main ... key=228250




https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... irus-test/

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zeal ... virus.html

https://stillnessinthestorm.com/2020/02 ... -reagants/

https://coercioncode.com/2020/02/14/cdc ... negatives/

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Re: Coronavirus outbreaky

by Snowball » 22 Mar 2020 00:17

Jagermesiter1871 [


25,000 a day was what he stated but even that sounds pie in the sky for the moment at least.


and he added, "and on up to 250,000

A journey asked him to clarify and he passed the buck to the scientist who waffled
but did not confirm

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 22 Mar 2020 01:28

Uke
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2 world wars, 1 world cup
Yes they are being tested (already started) but they have obviously been produced in order to be tested.


There was an interview a week with a woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had the injection....



The correct phrasing is a "woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had an injection"

It's to early to use "the"


Yes.

Btw My initial point was a vaccine HAS been produced. And it was made quite early on too, much quicker than expected. Of course it has to go through required tests. But it’s there. The context of my statement is that many feared it wouldn’t be so easily made, or would be delayed. It was on the contrary easy.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 22 Mar 2020 01:34

2 world wars, 1 world cup
Uke
Nameless
There was an interview a week with a woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had the injection....



The correct phrasing is a "woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had an injection"

It's to early to use "the"


Yes.

Btw My initial point was a vaccine HAS been produced. And it was made quite early on too, much quicker than expected. Of course it has to go through required tests. But it’s there. The context of my statement is that many feared it wouldn’t be so easily made, or would be delayed. It was on the contrary easy.


Until the fat lady sings, a virus HAS NOT been produced.

A woman has had an injection...

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 22 Mar 2020 01:44

Uke
2 world wars, 1 world cup
Uke

The correct phrasing is a "woman in the States who had volunteered to be tested with a Vaccine and had had an injection"

It's to early to use "the"


Yes.

Btw My initial point was a vaccine HAS been produced. And it was made quite early on too, much quicker than expected. Of course it has to go through required tests. But it’s there. The context of my statement is that many feared it wouldn’t be so easily made, or would be delayed. It was on the contrary easy.


Until the fat lady sings, a virus HAS NOT been produced.

A woman has had an injection...


Let’s not get into conspiracy theories about the virus being produced.

And I’ve no interest in exploring your definitions of what constitutes production. Play that game on your own. Or go talk to the guys I studied with up the road on your own. Nothing to do with fat ladies in America. It’s not my job to educate sorry buddy. Believe what you will. Peace.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Millsy » 22 Mar 2020 01:49

Snowball, you are showing signs of anxiety and I have nothing but respect for you I hope you are well.

But chill. And step back from trying to analyse something out of your area of expertise. It will do you no good.

If you must, carrying on from my observations of German etc stats, what do you make of the stats from the Diamond Princess, quite possibly the most accurate stats we could have except for its unnaturally vulnerable population.

Keep safe but keep sane, fellow Redingensians.
Last edited by Millsy on 22 Mar 2020 02:09, edited 1 time in total.

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