Coronavirus outbreak

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Hound
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hound » 03 Apr 2020 10:27

Snowball
================================================

For about the fortieth time, the flattening of the curve is NOT designed to mean less people will get Covid-19. The flattening is to try to prevent very high infection peaks when a LOT of people get Covid at the same time thus making the NHS run out of beds and intensive care gear.


I think everyone understands that. However it is flattening A curve, not flattening THE curve

It’s a valid concern as to where we go from this point. Permanent on/off lockdown until (if) and vaccine is discovered and mass produced? That will devastate the economy and drive people nuts

If we spend the next couple of months in lockdown and then come out again - other than being better prepared, with the NHS Better funded/equipped - we’re back at square 1 really. There won’t be any herd immunity as those who have had it as a percentage is still tiny. Maybe just being better prepared is as good as we can hope for

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 03 Apr 2020 10:37

If we come out of lockdown in say June I suspect a significant proportion of the public are going to be very reluctant to go back to work in their usual way knowing they are going to contract this virus.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hound » 03 Apr 2020 10:40

Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 03 Apr 2020 10:52

Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term


Just because you flatten the curve doesn`t mean the virus has gone, the sad fact is COVID-19 is here to stay, you can reduce the infections but it will come and come again. in short until there is a vaccine we have to live with it in or midst.

It`s anyones guess when we will see normal life again, let alone football.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hound » 03 Apr 2020 10:57

windermereROYAL
Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term


Just because you flatten the curve doesn`t mean the virus has gone, the sad fact is COVID-19 is here to stay, you can reduce the infections but it will come and come again. in short until there is a vaccine we have to live with it in or midst.

It`s anyones guess when we will see normal life again, let alone football.


Yep exactly. Which is why I think we need to start thinking quite quickly about what life looks like in a months time (and communicating this out) rather than just suggesting that ‘locking down’ everything as much as possible now is any kind of fix


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 03 Apr 2020 11:12

windermereROYAL
Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term


Just because you flatten the curve doesn`t mean the virus has gone, the sad fact is COVID-19 is here to stay, you can reduce the infections but it will come and come again. in short until there is a vaccine we have to live with it in or midst.

It`s anyones guess when we will see normal life again, let alone football.

If we could shut down transmission so that the average patient infects less than one person, then it would die out.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 11:17

Oh, agreed on lockdown, the curve, a curve, curves, but the crucial thing is keeping the numbers sick at any time below the maximum number the NHS can manage.

It's a horrible set of choices between damaging/collapsing the economy, straining the NHS, "allowing for" extra deaths, triaging = letting old people die, but the idea (mooted by the moron Cummings) of letting people just get it, herd immunity etc was just plain BONKERS.

Those who suggested that forget that most of our so-called "herd immunities" didn't come from letting everybody just get the disease, it came from vaccinations like MMR. Experts (I think it was the WHO said about 3-4 weeks ago that China would have gone to 9 Million Cases (140 times as many as they actually had, but that would then have doubled every 4 days.

We have had measles epidemics, polio epidemics, mumps, cholera, typhoid, the plague. We know how many deaths can occur in a world where there were nothing like as many people, where we weren't so densely packed, where travel was less frequent, slower, and in far smaller numbers.

4-Day Doubling

24-Feb 75,815 WUHAN ONLY CASES
28-Feb 151,630
04-Mar 303,260
09-Mar 606,520
14-Mar 1,213,040
19-Mar 2,426,080
24-Mar 4,852,160
29-Mar 9,704,320
03-Apr 19,408,640 <<<<<

That is China alone would be 19 times what the world is now suffering, the health system would have collapsed weeks ago.

08-Apr 38,817,280
13-Apr 77,634,560
18-Apr 155,269,120
23-Apr 310,538,240
28-Apr 621,076,480
03-May 1,242,152,960
08-May 2,484,305,920
13-May 4,968,611,840... five BILLION, most of the world. That's what "unchecked" does
17-May?

My point is that we have to stop the death toll, whatever it costs economically. We can recover from wars, we have done more than once. We can't recover from being dead.

This will almost certainly change the world, and we will probably be feeling the effects for decades, but we have to slow the virus then stop the virus, or reduce each peak until a virus comes along. (By then it may have muted, but that's another story).

In 1918 politics made governments down-play that virus. That went well.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 11:48

SCIAG

If we could shut down transmission so that the average patient infects less than one person, then it would die out.


Yes and No (presuming there is no new animal >> human source)


You have to get r significantly under 1.

Imagine an r of 0.95.

We currently have 750,000 Confirmed Live Cases. We are approaching 80,000 Cases per day. If TODAY we got the infection rate down to 0.95 we would still get huge numbers infected every day

New Cases

04-Apr 76,000
05-Apr 72,200
06-Apr 68,590
07-Apr 65,161
08-Apr 61,902
09-Apr 58,807
10-Apr 55,867
11-Apr 53,074
12-Apr 50,420

at r=0.95 we'd be getting 450 new cases per day 13-July, a total of 1,591,451 New Cases on top of the 1,000,000+ we have had date. So that would be 2.6 Million, or keep it simple 2.6 times as many deaths all round IF health services didn't collapse

At a rate of 0.9 we would be down to 27 cases per day, 18th June, about 800,000 new cases on top of where we are now.

At a rate of 0.9 we would be down to 26 cases per day, 19th May about 400,000 new cases on top of where we are now.



I suppose, in all honesty, we'd take any of those. But the infections would still be occurring and any relaxation of the lockdown would mean an upturn in new cases and eventual deaths.

at an r of 0.95 the UK deaths would be approximately 30,662*2.6%*20% = 15,900

I think that would be "a result", but we aren't under r=1 yet, are we?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 03 Apr 2020 12:07

The serious / critical stats are not useful. Ours has remained unchanged at 163 for the last week.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 03 Apr 2020 12:10

Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term


Is it the case that early lockdowns can actually be counter-productive in the long run?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hound » 03 Apr 2020 12:14

Royal Rother
Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term


Is it the case that early lockdowns can actually be counter-productive in the long run?


dunno, thats for brighter minds than me to look at. Some sort of herd-immunity does seem to be the only way out in the long run, and thats only achieved by exposing people to it, or creating a vaccine which may or may not work and maybe 18 months away anyway. Obvs the early lockdown is just reducing all exposure to it.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 12:20

Royal Rother The serious / critical stats are not useful. Ours has remained unchanged at 163 for the last week.


I know. A few countries don't seem to be publishing them, but some ARE and there numbers seem reasonable

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by tmesis » 03 Apr 2020 13:07

Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 13:11

tmesis
Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it



So why are they not quarantining them for at least 14 days, as the Chinese are doing?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 03 Apr 2020 14:06

Seeing reports of queues of traffic on Oxford road to get into B&M garden centre and the police are in attendance, words fail me sometimes. :shock:

It like a holidays for these brainless pricks. I`m almost dreading the warm weather.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by tmesis » 03 Apr 2020 14:08

Snowball
tmesis
Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it



So why are they not quarantining them for at least 14 days, as the Chinese are doing?

They tell them to, but people are ignoring the advice, just as they do here.

One guy was so unwell with it after flying back, that he died on the train home to his town after leaving the airport. Thailand is imposing curfews now

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 15:15

windermereROYAL Seeing reports of queues of traffic on Oxford road to get into B&M garden centre and the police are in attendance, words fail me sometimes. :shock:

It like a holidays for these brainless pricks. Im almost dreading the warm weather.




Agree on the individual stupidity but why haven't the Govt/Local Authorities shut them down?

I went to get some fresh veg this morning, kept finding old people walking straight into my "6 feet" as if it was just any other Friday.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jackson Corner » 03 Apr 2020 15:52

This is way worse than the government are telling us. You can tell by there faces at the daily conference. Boris does not have covid-19 Putin has not been seen and Trump makes one token appearance a day. All the world leaders have been conspicuous by there absence. They are making some emergency plan to save the human race. We are all going to die. My advice cherish your loved one’s whilst you still can. The doomsday clock is clicking.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 03 Apr 2020 15:57

Jackson Corner This is way worse than the government are telling us. You can tell by there faces at the daily conference. Boris does not have covid-19 Putin has not been seen and Trump makes one token appearance a day. All the world leaders have been conspicuous by there absence. They are making some emergency plan to save the human race. We are all going to die. My advice cherish your loved one’s whilst you still can. The doomsday clock is clicking.



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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Cape Town Royal » 03 Apr 2020 16:54

Snowball
tmesis
Hound Just spotted that Singapore, after apparently being very successful in containing the virus, are now starting to ‘lockdown’ after a second surge

Again, just shows by flattening that first curve, it’s not really solving anything long term

what's being seen a lot in Asia is people returning from Europe/USA with the virus and spreading it



So why are they not quarantining them for at least 14 days, as the Chinese are doing?


I can only talk clearly about Japan, so until recently anyone entering the country had go into 14 days quarantine and to do that they had to have a place to stay here and had to have pre-arranged non-public transport to take them to their place of quarantine. If they did not have that then they were not allowed to leave the airport and were held their. Now all non-Japanese nationals from most of the world cannot get in at all. Visa's are no longer valid.

Within Japan itself the debate is high. Public buildings museums etc are closed and prefecture (large counties) governments are telling private spaces like these to close. Schools have been closed since Feb. However, sports clubs are still running, most shops are still open, transport is still running and people are still going to work. For example, a friend of mine lives in Suma and travels an hour each way to Osaka to work each day. He's a designer and could work from home.

The issue here is the central government is weak and seemingly cannot make the decision to shut the country down. This is a cultural thing, since WWII Japan has had a peaceful constitution so have avoided conflicts and apart from earthquakes has had few disasters to deal with. This coupled with a good standard of living and being an island nation means the average Japanese see's things happening in the world as happening elsewhere and not affecting them. Added to this, they simply do not trust the politicians.

So, when the politicians weakly say we would prefer you not to eat out and to try to work from home. No one truly believes them because they do not deliver the message anywhere near as strongly as Boris has.

Japanese people are naturally cautious and health conscious so given the above comments what you have here now is a government wanting people to isolate but not brave enough to make them do it... "we'll see where we are in a few days" and a population split with half doing what they can to minimise contact and the other half just carrying on as normal.

It's a long answer but that's why we haven't been quarantined here yet.

I know a little about Taiwan too because I have friends there and they have told me that their approach is to test a lot and especially in public places, train stations etc.. Anyone found to have a high temperature is immediately isolated and taken for testing and if they are positive then they trace back their movements and anyone they have been in contact is also isolated.

They have been successful so far because numbers in Taiwan are low, which is amazing given the amount of Chinese tourists that go there. Though Pooh Bear may have done Taiwan a favour here, because in his attempt to force Taiwan back under Chinese control he has reduced the number of visas to visit there an in doing so has reduced the number of tourists visiting Taiwan from the mainland which has probably also reduced the infection rate..

I know less of the Korean approach but have discussed it a little with some Korean friends and their approach seems similar to the Taiwan one, test a lot and then work hard to isolate though they have been in contact with. That's why they are so pissed with the religious group blamed for starting the outbreak because they refused to divulge it and by the time they did it was too late to shut it down. A bit like what happened in China though this time not by the state.

Out of Korea, Taiwan and Japan, my worry is for us here, because of the reasons highlighted above. Our numbers are growing and as you have seen in the UK unless you check it will double and quickly. Tokyo admitted in 40% of the cases recently they could not trace it back to the source, Greater Tokyo is 25-30M people, If it breaks out there (its where the majority of the recent cases are) and people start running back to the places in Japan they came from (many move there for work like with London) then it could spread all over Japan very quickly.

To answer your question why have we not quarantined here, my answer is ask Abe, its what most of the country is doing right now.

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