How Are We Second?

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:24

Or, on average, all other things being equal clubs should win 50% of aerial duels.

The big lump sides win a higher percentage, but 56.3% Wins versus 43.7% losses is very decent.

ie: "We are good in the air" One of the five best teams in the league at it.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:26

Zip
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Snowball We are currently scoring from 1 in 4 of all shots.

I think it was Ipswich who topped the league for a while with a similar
"crazy" conversion rate. When the rate reverted to average they dropped
down the table and were eventually relegated.

But I don't think our scoring is "freaky". We are getting no extra luck.

I think we are running a tight game (certainly suggested by our goals against column)
and, instead of wasteful long-shots, we are working good chances.

Because they are better than average chances, more go in.

Not sure Ben Foster would necessarily agree that we’ve had no extra luck


Not really. The shot did take a deflection but Puscas was in the six yard box having turned the defender so it was a great chance.


Agreed

You give a striker a clear chance six yards out. It will go in more often than it won't.
Last edited by Snowball on 10 Oct 2020 13:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Stranded » 10 Oct 2020 13:30

How are we second?

It's because we've deservedly won all four games but with a slightly inferior GD than Bristol City isn't it?

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:31

Snowflake Royal
Zip Snowers. Aerials won. Is that 19th as in better than only 5 teams?
The least number of shots is a real surprise. It must be incredibly rare for a team doing so well to have had fewer shots than the rest of the League.

This all ties in with the xgoals posse.

We've bucked that trend many a time. We shoot less and score a high percentage because we mainly try to shoot when in a good position. We take relatively few big pot shots from distance.



YES



Just take a look at Barnsley

11.3 shots per game
45.0 shots in four games against our 29 total

just six shots on target (1.5 pg) against our 17 total

and just 3 goals

They score a goal every 15 shots.
We score a goal every 3.85 shots

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Lower West
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Re: How Are We Second?

by Lower West » 10 Oct 2020 13:33

TiagoIlori
Sure we look a bit predictable at times but our manager has just come in and ripped up the playbook we had under Bowen, I’m stunned people talking about us aren’t taking that into account because we are not going to be playing free flowing football immediately.


Laurent was Bowen's recruitment. On a free a total bargain. Seamlessly fitted into the side as well.


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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:34

Stranded How are we second?

It's because we've deservedly won all four games but with a slightly inferior GD than Bristol City isn't it?


Categorically not.

We have an identical GD to Bristol


Yes, of course we, ATM deserve to be top/top two.


The thread title "How Are We second?" does nowhere say "We Don't DESERVE to be second"

It's phrased how it's phrased for a reason

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Stranded » 10 Oct 2020 13:35

Quite right, I meant slightly inferior number of goals scored, which is a tie breaker

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Oct 2020 13:36

Lower West
TiagoIlori
Sure we look a bit predictable at times but our manager has just come in and ripped up the playbook we had under Bowen, I’m stunned people talking about us aren’t taking that into account because we are not going to be playing free flowing football immediately.


Laurent was Bowen's recruitment. On a free a total bargain. Seamlessly fitted into the side as well.

Not sure how he's ripped up the play book playing mostly the same formation and players.

Set pieces do seem more varied and effective, mind..

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:40

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TiagoIlori
Sure we look a bit predictable at times but our manager has just come in and ripped up the playbook we had under Bowen, I’m stunned people talking about us aren’t taking that into account because we are not going to be playing free flowing football immediately.


Laurent was Bowen's recruitment. On a free a total bargain. Seamlessly fitted into the side as well.



How many people think, with this exact team as put out in our
first four games believe, hand-on-heart we would have won
all four games?

I certainly don't think we'd've beaten Watford or Cardiff, we'd've
struggled to beat Barnsley and probably finished 0-0. v Derby, hard to
say because they looked a poor, dispirited side, but I think we'd be
WDDL at best.

IMO we may have a similar squad/team but the WAY they are playing
is pure Velcro. We are tight in defence but not defensive. We are
scoring lots of excellent goals.

We have the CBs attacking better. We've had 4/7 goals from dead ball
situations, and with clear "training ground practice". Joao's near post
goal, Morrison's from the Olise free-kick.


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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:40

Stranded Quite right, I meant slightly inferior number of goals scored, which is a tie breaker



:-)

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 13:43

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TiagoIlori
Sure we look a bit predictable at times but our manager has just come in and ripped up the playbook we had under Bowen, I’m stunned people talking about us aren’t taking that into account because we are not going to be playing free flowing football immediately.


Laurent was Bowen's recruitment. On a free a total bargain. Seamlessly fitted into the side as well.

Not sure how he's ripped up the play book playing mostly the same formation and players.

Set pieces do seem more varied and effective, mind..


I'm not enough of an expert to say exactly how we are different
from last season, but IMO we look like a new side with six new
players, more flair, more jazz, more courage, braver passes, a LOT
more running, more pressing, more tackles, more fire-in-the-belly,
more team spirit, more HOEL and way better at free-kicks and corners

and mostly WITHOUT our alleged best player in Swift

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Oct 2020 13:49

Snowball
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Laurent was Bowen's recruitment. On a free a total bargain. Seamlessly fitted into the side as well.

Not sure how he's ripped up the play book playing mostly the same formation and players.

Set pieces do seem more varied and effective, mind..


I'm not enough of an expert to say exactly how we are different
from last season, but IMO we look like a new side with six new
players, more flair, more jazz, more courage, braver passes, a LOT
more running, more pressing, more tackles, more fire-in-the-belly,
more team spirit, more HOEL and way better at free-kicks and corners

and mostly WITHOUT our alleged best player in Swift

Better doesn't necessarily mean different.

We're doing a lot of the same, but a lot better.

Paunovic deserves credit for how well we've been playing, but the idea that our success is based on ripping up and throwing away what's gone before is daft.

You don't start a new season with minimal change throughout the squad, playing the same formation and suddenly have everything different and great. Improvement takes time and sometimes it only translates into big change in performance with the last few pieces. That doesn't mean the foundations weren't laid previously and aren't part of the pretty building on display now.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by TiagoIlori » 10 Oct 2020 14:31

Ok let me rephrase, is probably looking to make some changes to make the team play how he wants us to play. Rafael himself said Bowen was more about long balls and Pauno was more about playing out from the back with a high tempo. That stuff takes a lot of time to do.


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Re: How Are We Second?

by royalp-we » 10 Oct 2020 14:32

You can see how angry Pauno gets if we waste an attacking opportunity. Watching his YT videos his mantra seems to be telling players to play at a high tempo and they better make every offensive chance count.

Over the 4 fixtures I haven’t found myself saying ‘just hit the bloody thing’ because we are playing tiki taka in the final third. The team are rarely wasting chances and playing some lovely stuff with lots of runners off the ball at that high tempo in attack.

Dithering with no runners and taking wasteful 30yd shots like other teams seem to do several times a game would infuriate the bloke.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowflake Royal » 10 Oct 2020 14:47

TiagoIlori Ok let me rephrase, is probably looking to make some changes to make the team play how he wants us to play. Rafael himself said Bowen was more about long balls and Pauno was more about playing out from the back with a high tempo. That stuff takes a lot of time to do.

Fair enough, although descriptions of Bowen as longball are way off IMO.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Simmops » 10 Oct 2020 16:14

Stats are absolutely meaningless. The only thing that matters is the score.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by RoyalBlue » 10 Oct 2020 16:25

Zip Snowers. Aerials won. Is that 19th as in better than only 5 teams?
The least number of shots is a real surprise. It must be incredibly rare for a team doing so well to have had fewer shots than the rest of the League.


Shots on target and the percentage of those converted is obviously way more important than total number of shots and we are doing pretty well in the respect. In recent seasons, IIRC, we were firing off quite a high number of shots but not many tested the keeper let alone beat him!

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Re: How Are We Second?

by RoyalBlue » 10 Oct 2020 16:27

Snowflake Royal
TiagoIlori Ok let me rephrase, is probably looking to make some changes to make the team play how he wants us to play. Rafael himself said Bowen was more about long balls and Pauno was more about playing out from the back with a high tempo. That stuff takes a lot of time to do.

Fair enough, although descriptions of Bowen as longball are way off IMO.


I can't remember which player it was but I'm pretty sure one of them commented on how VP's preferred style of play was very different and that Bowen tended to want more long balls played.

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Re: How Are We Second?

by WTRoyal » 10 Oct 2020 16:30

Simmops Stats are absolutely meaningless. The only thing that matters is the score.

I agree with the sentiment but sweeping statements are generally not as helpful as something a little more considered; the score itself is, of course, a stat...

...now if you'd said "most stats are relatively meaningless. The most important stat is the score at the end of each game", I think people would find it nigh-on impossible to find a flaw in your post.

not having a pop at you,just satisfying my own pedantry

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Re: How Are We Second?

by Snowball » 10 Oct 2020 16:46

Simmops Stats are absolutely meaningless. The only thing that matters is the score.


And the score is a stat.

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