Next 5 games are key

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WoodleyRoyal
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Next 5 games are key

by WoodleyRoyal » 21 Oct 2020 21:08

Rotherham home
Blackburn away
Coventry Away
Preston home
Stoke home

all the above are in the bottom half (as I write this) if we have automatic promotion ambitions we would need to be taking minimum 10 points from these games.

then we have Bournemouth away, Millwall away and bristol city at home to finish off November.

I see no reason on the current form why we shouldn't be taking at least10 points out of that lot, and should set us up nicely for the 3 tougher games

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by SouthDownsRoyal » 21 Oct 2020 21:43

WoodleyRoyal Rotherham home
Blackburn away
Coventry Away
Preston home
Stoke home

all the above are in the bottom half (as I write this) if we have automatic promotion ambitions we would need to be taking minimum 10 points from these games.

then we have Bournemouth away, Millwall away and bristol city at home to finish off November.

I see no reason on the current form why we shouldn't be taking at least10 points out of that lot, and should set us up nicely for the 3 tougher games


I agree.

All the cliches about no easy games, anyone can beat anyone etc sure but as you say, and I have said the same. If we are to be genuine promotion candidates then yes ten points minimum from those.

I’m not sure we will achieve it and I’d expect 7/8 points (based on nothing other than gut feeling) 7/8 would be OK but would see us drop int the POs and with (on paper) tougher games ahead that’s when it gets tricky.

Stoke will surely be a draw

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by 3points » 21 Oct 2020 21:55

Just looked at the table and see that we’ve played three of the bottom four so far.

False 1st????

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Barney » 21 Oct 2020 21:58

3points Just looked at the table and see that we’ve played three of the bottom four so far.

False 1st????


NO. Not false first. One of the reasons why these teams are bottom three are because they have played, and lost, to us.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Snowflake Royal » 21 Oct 2020 23:18

WoodleyRoyal Rotherham home
Blackburn away
Coventry Away
Preston home
Stoke home

all the above are in the bottom half (as I write this) if we have automatic promotion ambitions we would need to be taking minimum 10 points from these games.

then we have Bournemouth away, Millwall away and bristol city at home to finish off November.

I see no reason on the current form why we shouldn't be taking at least10 points out of that lot, and should set us up nicely for the 3 tougher games

Cripes, none of them seem that scary.

Rotherham haven't won since the opening day
Blackburn have lost two in a row and not won in three
Coventry haven't won in four and concede loads
Preston are a bit hit and miss, but by the time we play them that could be different, Stoke similar


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Re: Next 5 games are key

by JR » 21 Oct 2020 23:47

SouthDownsRoyal
WoodleyRoyal Rotherham home
Blackburn away
Coventry Away
Preston home
Stoke home

all the above are in the bottom half (as I write this) if we have automatic promotion ambitions we would need to be taking minimum 10 points from these games.

then we have Bournemouth away, Millwall away and bristol city at home to finish off November.

I see no reason on the current form why we shouldn't be taking at least10 points out of that lot, and should set us up nicely for the 3 tougher games


I agree.

All the cliches about no easy games, anyone can beat anyone etc sure but as you say, and I have said the same. If we are to be genuine promotion candidates then yes ten points minimum from those.

I’m not sure we will achieve it and I’d expect 7/8 points (based on nothing other than gut feeling) 7/8 would be OK but would see us drop int the POs and with (on paper) tougher games ahead that’s when it gets tricky.

Stoke will surely be a draw


Your prediction of 23/24 points from 11 games is most definitely top 2. Don’t panic!

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Chameleon » 22 Oct 2020 00:15

We shouldn't lose any of the next 4 games, 8-12 points is the realistic range, gives us a nice lead before the brutal late November schedule drags us back down to earth a bit.

Get to 26-28 off of 10, and then using the usual ~90 for promotion, ~73 for 6th we would need 1.278 PPG for 6th (ie. 1/3rd wins, 1/3rd draws, 1/3rd losses for the rest of the season), 1.75PPG for 2nd.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by TiagoIlori » 22 Oct 2020 01:17

Once the festive period is over we can make a judgement on how good a team is. I don’t see us sustaining this without a huge improvement, so I’m excited to see what Paunovic will do with the team to ensure we can do well enough to cement a promotion push.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Crowbar6753 » 22 Oct 2020 01:45

We seem to be more suited for away games and even with three home wins on the bounce we don't really seem to control games at home. 4-2-3-1 is great away from home and really seems to suit us well. However, maybe a change of tactics at home is needed, and i would prefer to play two up front at home either 4-4-2 or 3-5-2 maybe the latter as we still don't really have any out and out wingers at the club.

So for this reason i am fearing the Rotherham game and see this as an upset, and maybe a draw with Stoke. We seem to have Preston's number over the last few seasons and see no issue's with Coventry away, however Blackburh may be tricky but they are on a poor run at the minute.
I think 8 points from these games.


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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Simmops » 22 Oct 2020 05:43

Every game is key

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Stranded » 22 Oct 2020 07:08

Win next game should be the only mantra.

Take Saturday, if we beat Rotherham we could be 5 points clear by tea time as Watford host Bournemouth whilst Swansea head to Bristol.

Lose and we could be 3rd.

If we do the win and results go or way then pressure eases on the Blackburn game given that gap.

If we pick up 8 points over the next 5 games, we'll be on 24 and likely still top.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Hound » 22 Oct 2020 08:22

Yep it’s just jeep picking up points where we can at the moment

Certainly I’d be disappointed with not getting a decent points return from that set of games mind you, but I do feel we’re probably likely to lose one pretty soon. Then it’s about bouncing back

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by WestYorksRoyal » 22 Oct 2020 08:23

We're doing well, but this list of games shows how tentative I still am. In 05/06 and at our peak in 11/12, you'd look at games and know we'd win (forget the no easy games cliché, the teams just had an aura).

Now I'm even looking at Rotherham as a possible banana skin. I'd be very happy with 10 points from those 5.

Maybe some games where we make a statement and score a hatful would make me feel better. When you keep coming out on top in close games, it's to be expected a couple of results will eventually go against you.


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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Snowflake Royal » 22 Oct 2020 08:27

It's also about getting points on the board early knowing the season could be cancelled or postponed in a month's time.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Nameless » 22 Oct 2020 08:36

Snowflake Royal It's also about getting points on the board early knowing the season could be cancelled or postponed in a month's time.


If the season isn’t cancelled In a month then the number of points we have will be irrelevant !

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by NewCorkSeth » 22 Oct 2020 08:40

Hound Yep it’s just jeep picking up points where we can at the moment

Certainly I’d be disappointed with not getting a decent points return from that set of games mind you, but I do feel we’re probably likely to lose one pretty soon. Then it’s about bouncing back

I have a touch of the gamblers fallacy about me now. The longer we go without losing the more I believe we will lose the next game.

Obviously we have to lose and i think the analysts who are pointing out that we just simply are not taking enough shots to sustain this winning form are correct. All it takes is conceding a goal first to really test us right now.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Stranded » 22 Oct 2020 09:09

WestYorksRoyal We're doing well, but this list of games shows how tentative I still am. In 05/06 and at our peak in 11/12, you'd look at games and know we'd win (forget the no easy games cliché, the teams just had an aura).

Now I'm even looking at Rotherham as a possible banana skin. I'd be very happy with 10 points from those 5.

Maybe some games where we make a statement and score a hatful would make me feel better. When you keep coming out on top in close games, it's to be expected a couple of results will eventually go against you.


The aura for both those teams developed over time - in 05/06 for me at least it was a win against Hull in November (about game 18 or so) where Hull were the better team, equalised and looked like going on to win it - we then scored 2 in a minute to kill the game off. From that point on, I turned up to each game with the only question being "How many will we win by today?".

In 11/12 the aura was only there in the last third of the season.

Since then we've been generally awful so it will take a while for any aura to build and the natural nervousness that this may be the game we are found out to die down a bit, especially in home games.

The way I am looking at it, at the start of the season most of us would have been over the moon with 10 to 12 points from the first 7 games, we are already well ahead of that.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Millsy » 22 Oct 2020 09:12

The next 40 games will be crucial and a much better indicator than the next 5, for me.

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by SouthDownsRoyal » 22 Oct 2020 09:14

Millsy The next 40 games will be crucial and a much better indicator than the next 5, for me.


I agree. I think once we have played 46 games we will have a better idea of where we will finish

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Re: Next 5 games are key

by Hound » 22 Oct 2020 09:18

Stranded
WestYorksRoyal We're doing well, but this list of games shows how tentative I still am. In 05/06 and at our peak in 11/12, you'd look at games and know we'd win (forget the no easy games cliché, the teams just had an aura).

Now I'm even looking at Rotherham as a possible banana skin. I'd be very happy with 10 points from those 5.

Maybe some games where we make a statement and score a hatful would make me feel better. When you keep coming out on top in close games, it's to be expected a couple of results will eventually go against you.


The aura for both those teams developed over time - in 05/06 for me at least it was a win against Hull in November (about game 18 or so) where Hull were the better team, equalised and looked like going on to win it - we then scored 2 in a minute to kill the game off. From that point on, I turned up to each game with the only question being "How many will we win by today?".

In 11/12 the aura was only there in the last third of the season.

Since then we've been generally awful so it will take a while for any aura to build and the natural nervousness that this may be the game we are found out to die down a bit, especially in home games.

The way I am looking at it, at the start of the season most of us would have been over the moon with 10 to 12 points from the first 7 games, we are already well ahead of that.


Think there were home games in the Stam era when you'd turn up expecting to win once we got up and running. In a way I don't think we are massively dissimilar at the moment from that side where we are really building the wins by being very strong defensively and often getting the odd goal or two by a bit of magic up front. Certainly a bit more entertaining though

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