TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

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WestYorksRoyal
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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by WestYorksRoyal » 22 Mar 2024 16:00

SouthDownsRoyal I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by SouthDownsRoyal » 22 Mar 2024 16:10

WestYorksRoyal
SouthDownsRoyal I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.


Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Lower West » 22 Mar 2024 16:13

WestYorksRoyal Positive and negative spins available. The remaining parties must really want us to take such a risk covering the shortfall (good). They must be total idiots to want to buy a club in such a mess and dance to Dai's tune (bad).



To fund the shortfall they'll either want some security (as did the Wycombe guy) or their offer will be materially lower to reflect the risk. There's no free lunches to be had. No shortage of football clubs to buy. With around 50% of EFL clubs technically insolvent and totally dependent upon the ongoing financial support of their owners. Football is in a sorry state.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by SouthDownsRoyal » 22 Mar 2024 16:15

Pepe the Horseman Marc Bircham and friends out of the running according to nitk Eddie.


C4Y

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by tmesis » 22 Mar 2024 17:29

SouthDownsRoyal
WestYorksRoyal
SouthDownsRoyal I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.


Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?


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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by WestYorksRoyal » 22 Mar 2024 17:34

If any private equity firm or hedge fund want an idea of the potential prize, Ipswich's owners just sold a 40% stake for £105m, valuing them at a whopping £262.5m. I think some is ringfenced for investment in infrastructure and staff as opposed to buying the shares. But it shows what returns can be generated if you turn around an underperforming club. Maybe Dai's price isn't so ridiculous.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Franchise FC » 22 Mar 2024 17:36

tmesis
SouthDownsRoyal
WestYorksRoyal You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.


Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

As I see it, part of the problem is that it appears that whatever money he gets is going to be seized bu the Chinese government.
If that’s the case, and I appreciate it’s still a bit of guesswork, then he has no incentive to sell at all

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by WestYorksRoyal » 22 Mar 2024 17:38

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Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

As I see it, part of the problem is that it appears that whatever money he gets is going to be seized bu the Chinese government.
If that’s the case, and I appreciate it’s still a bit of guesswork, then he has no incentive to sell at all

Very much guesswork. But if the Chinese government can seize his proceeds, surely they can also force him to sell an asset where it can be seen there is a market? I thought they can basically do anything they want tbh.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Lower West » 22 Mar 2024 17:51

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Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

As wildly irrational as he is, I can't see any logic at all to turning down a decent offer. With the now publicised restriction on Bearwood, selling that off becomes far more difficult, and the stadium can't be worth a fortune without Reading playing in it.

He could, in theory, just keep the club on life support to collect rent on the stadium, but it would take years to recoup what he could gain from a sale.

Yes, he could also be asking a high price, thinking he'd rather let us die than take an offer lower than what he considers acceptable, but is the price of his pride worth £30 million?

As I see it, part of the problem is that it appears that whatever money he gets is going to be seized bu the Chinese government.
If that’s the case, and I appreciate it’s still a bit of guesswork, then he has no incentive to sell at all


Is Dai pulling the strings in China? I suspect not. There's many £ millions at stake in this transaction. Dai isn't the one losing out financially either. This money will go towards repaying bank borrowings.


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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by blythspartan » 22 Mar 2024 17:53

I hope more than anything I am wrong, but I think we’ll get to 2 April with no news. The club will go silent apart from the usual tweets from admin and in the middle of April news will slowly filter out confirming that takeover talks have collapsed. I don’t trust Dai to sell the club.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Snowflake Royal » 22 Mar 2024 18:31

SouthDownsRoyal
WestYorksRoyal
SouthDownsRoyal I 5hink we all know by know how this will almost certainly play out now.

You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.


Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

Yep. Been saying since about December that until a new owner is official we're on a ticking clock to oblivion with the deadline in June/July.

For all the noise. Nothing has changed. Except the amount of time left.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Hound » 22 Mar 2024 20:40

Snowflake Royal
SouthDownsRoyal
WestYorksRoyal You just have to hope his rational self interest wins the day in the end. He gets nothing from the club if he doesn't sell. He's tried asset stripping and selling the training ground and it has failed. As difficult as he seems intent to make it, it really is in his best interests to sell.


Agree with this but you’re rational, he isn’t, he has shown no intention of selling up to now just empty words

Yep. Been saying since about December that until a new owner is official we're on a ticking clock to oblivion with the deadline in June/July.

For all the noise. Nothing has changed. Except the amount of time left.


Broadly agree which is why I’ve certainly not been getting over excited

One thing that may have changed is stripping out Bearwood and selling off looks a whole lot harder than he’d hoped. How much influence that will have - who knows.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by SCIAG » 22 Mar 2024 21:56

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SCIAG Dai basically made two mistakes, but they're both pretty bad.

1) Put too much of his own money into the squad rather than follow the profit and sustainability rules (which would probably have led to better recruitment), ultimately forcing us to work under EFL sanctions for years on end.

2) Ran out of liquidity.

Other than that, he helped fund the training ground, he kept ticket prices at far below the market rate, and he subsidised away travel.

It's been said to death but if he sells Moore and doesn't sign Aluko and Puscas (combined with generally more sensible recruitment and retention) then we wouldn't be in this mess. Although if Dai ran out of money when we were in the Championship we'd have been in a bigger mess so maybe that's not a great line of argument.

Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

HTH.

(But notwithstanding, we'd be much further from relegation if we had an extra £30m to pay wages and the taxman with right now)


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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by SouthDownsRoyal » 22 Mar 2024 23:02

SCIAG
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SCIAG Dai basically made two mistakes, but they're both pretty bad.

1) Put too much of his own money into the squad rather than follow the profit and sustainability rules (which would probably have led to better recruitment), ultimately forcing us to work under EFL sanctions for years on end.

2) Ran out of liquidity.

Other than that, he helped fund the training ground, he kept ticket prices at far below the market rate, and he subsidised away travel.

It's been said to death but if he sells Moore and doesn't sign Aluko and Puscas (combined with generally more sensible recruitment and retention) then we wouldn't be in this mess. Although if Dai ran out of money when we were in the Championship we'd have been in a bigger mess so maybe that's not a great line of argument.

Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

HTH.

(But notwithstanding, we'd be much further from relegation if we had an extra £30m to pay wages and the taxman with right now)


Well, quite.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Snowflake Royal » 23 Mar 2024 00:40

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SCIAG Dai basically made two mistakes, but they're both pretty bad.

1) Put too much of his own money into the squad rather than follow the profit and sustainability rules (which would probably have led to better recruitment), ultimately forcing us to work under EFL sanctions for years on end.

2) Ran out of liquidity.

Other than that, he helped fund the training ground, he kept ticket prices at far below the market rate, and he subsidised away travel.

It's been said to death but if he sells Moore and doesn't sign Aluko and Puscas (combined with generally more sensible recruitment and retention) then we wouldn't be in this mess. Although if Dai ran out of money when we were in the Championship we'd have been in a bigger mess so maybe that's not a great line of argument.

Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

HTH.

(But notwithstanding, we'd be much further from relegation if we had an extra £30m to pay wages and the taxman with right now)

We wouldn't though because it wasn't real money. And because if we spent it we'd get a lot more points taken off us now.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Franchise FC » 23 Mar 2024 07:34

Snowflake Royal
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Snowflake Royal Those small changes only swing it to about £160m lost in 6 years, from £190m. Not enough to prevent the mess, just delay it

HTH.

(But notwithstanding, we'd be much further from relegation if we had an extra £30m to pay wages and the taxman with right now)

We wouldn't though because it wasn't real money. And because if we spent it we'd get a lot more points taken off us now.

How many points have we lost through non payment of players and HMRC ?
Spending the saved amount on this alone would put us further from relegation

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by St Pauli » 23 Mar 2024 19:42

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jd82 Won't somebody please think of the footballers!
If you put it into context

If one of us earns more than a nurse we are likely to live a more expensive lifestyle than a nurse - have a bigger mortgage, have more kids, have a more expensive car on lease, that sort of thing.


Maybe if you expect to earn that your whole life. If you only expect to earn it for a limited number of years you will only have a more expensive lifestyle if you’re stupid and lack foresight and self control.

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by maffff » 23 Mar 2024 21:44

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jd82 Won't somebody please think of the footballers!
If you put it into context

If one of us earns more than a nurse we are likely to live a more expensive lifestyle than a nurse - have a bigger mortgage, have more kids, have a more expensive car on lease, that sort of thing. This is a natural thing, we are living within our means and all is good, same as footballers.
If our employer starts paying us late and making cut backs, we have the option to look for an alternative role elsewhere which offers more security.

Footballers earn more money than many of us, but they still need to pay the rent/mortgage etc. Yes, arguably they should plan for emergency situations like this but if you are working for an employer, the bare minimum that employer should do is pay you the agreed wages on the agreed date each month. They can't say enough is enough, I'm handing my notice in and will go work for Wycombe, Although I reckon a smart player/agent would build that into their next contract as a early release trigger - Fail to pay me my full wages on time x number of times and I have the option to terminate this contract and leave on a free transfer.

Nurses may be underpaid, but the NHS to the best of my knowledge doesn't pay them late and isn't going to cease to exist, so from that perspective the Nurses have some security. They too have the option to seek employment elsewhere.


Fail to pay me my full wages on time x number of times and I have the option to terminate this contract and leave on a free transfer.

^ this already exists, but it's months in a row. Think it's 3?

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by maffff » 23 Mar 2024 21:47

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WestYorksRoyal John Percy update. Semi reliable but fell for Storey's bullshit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/20 ... rs-offers/

If true, shortfall issues resolve for March. Exclusivity targeted by the end of the month (i.e., next week). Genevra are back.

Gotta be honest, I couldn't give a shit who owns us next season so long as it's not Dai Yongge. Will happily take Genevra.


As short term as it may be, I think we are mostly all on the same page - if whatever group comes in passes the low bar tests and then just keeps us ticking over and invests, wisely, in the team/club then fine. The alternative doesn't really bare thinking about.

If you speak to Wigan fans, Al Hammad started well there. Spoke about investing in youth, won promotion, appointed Maloney. Then the guy providing the money turned the tap off. Obviously he shares the blame, he agreed to front their operation and made himself chairman. But it doesn't guarantee he'll fail with us. And at least when it went tits up, they sold up quickly unlike Dai who continues to cling on.

The problem with all these private equity and hedge funds is knowing who is providing the money. I imagine the EFL checks take time compared to someone like Mike Ashley.


Then the guy providing the money turned the tap off.

^ the key point, it wasn't Talal with the money. Circumstances changed. We've spoken extensively with Wigan's Supporters' Trust who are very sympathetic about him and what happened - he also engaged them closely to try to do right by them in terms of a sale.

In himself, Talal isn't the problem. Is Genevra as an entity? perhaps, we just don't know?

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Re: TAKEOVER *NOT* CONFIMRED

by Sutekh » 24 Mar 2024 08:05

maffff
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As short term as it may be, I think we are mostly all on the same page - if whatever group comes in passes the low bar tests and then just keeps us ticking over and invests, wisely, in the team/club then fine. The alternative doesn't really bare thinking about.

If you speak to Wigan fans, Al Hammad started well there. Spoke about investing in youth, won promotion, appointed Maloney. Then the guy providing the money turned the tap off. Obviously he shares the blame, he agreed to front their operation and made himself chairman. But it doesn't guarantee he'll fail with us. And at least when it went tits up, they sold up quickly unlike Dai who continues to cling on.

The problem with all these private equity and hedge funds is knowing who is providing the money. I imagine the EFL checks take time compared to someone like Mike Ashley.


Then the guy providing the money turned the tap off.

^ the key point, it wasn't Talal with the money. Circumstances changed. We've spoken extensively with Wigan's Supporters' Trust who are very sympathetic about him and what happened - he also engaged them closely to try to do right by them in terms of a sale.

In himself, Talal isn't the problem. Is Genevra as an entity? perhaps, we just don't know?


Both sound like a considerable step up on the "can't even be arsed to communicate with anyone" failure we currently have. So let's get a change in and settled before anyone starts complaining.

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