Our impact on opposition attendances

[Clyde1998]

I was having a look at the impact on home support when playing various teams in League One.

When looking at overall attendances (both home and away fans): so far the sides we've played away from home have an average attendance of 7,718. Those same sides have averaged 8,454 in matches against us - an increase of 736. That is to say, 736 more people turn up when sides play us than for their average game.

That's the third highest increase in the division, behind Derby (1,455) and Bolton (907) and ahead of Portsmouth (631). In percentage terms, sides playing us see their average attendance increase by 8.7% (Derby 14.3%; Bolton 9.9%; Portsmouth 6.9%)

When looking purely at home supporters (without the away following), the figures are 6,809 and 7,237 respectively - seeing a 428 (or 5.9%) increase in home supporters when sides play us. This represents the biggest increase in the division.

Overall attendance (ordered by percentage increase)

1. Derby: +1,455 (+14.3%)
2. Bolton: +907 (+9.9%)
3. Reading: +736 (+8.7%)
4. Portsmouth: +631 (+6.9%)
5. Blackpool: +452 (+4.8%)
6. Wigan: +358 (+3.5%)
7. Leyton Orient: +292 (+3.1%)
8. Barnsley: +232 (+2.2%)
9. Oxford: +169 (+1.8%)
10. Carlisle: +123 (+1.3%)
11. Cambridge: +95 (+1.1%)
12. Peterborough: -19 (-0.2%)
13. Bristol Rovers: -41 (-0.4%)
14. Charlton: -34 (-0.4%)
15. Port Vale: -61 (-0.7%)
16. Stevenage: -404 (-4.7%)
17. Lincoln: -442 (-4.8%)
18. Northampton: -523 (-5.0%)
19. Wycombe: -482 (-5.1%)
20. Exeter: -542 (-5.3%)
21. Burton: -584 (-5.7%)
22. Shrewsbury: -487 (-7.3%)
23. Cheltenham: -935 (-8.7%)
24. Fleetwood: -948 (-9.6%)

Home attendance (ordered by percentage increase)

1. Reading: +428 (+5.9%)
2. Derby: +313 (+3.9%)
3. Cambridge: +256 (+3.2%)
4. Leyton Orient: +248 (+3.0%)
5. Bolton: +224 (+3.0%)
6. Blackpool: +207 (+2.5%)
7. Barnsley: +161 (+1.7%)
8. Wigan: +105 (+1.1%)
9. Burton: +93 (+0.9%)
10. Portsmouth: +48 (+0.6%)
11. Peterborough: +51 (+0.5%)
12. Oxford: -6 (-0.1%)
13. Stevenage: -26 (-0.3%)
14. Wycombe: -107 (-1.2%)
15. Charlton: -100 (-1.3%)
16. Port Vale: -118 (-1.5%)
17. Bristol Rovers: -190 (-1.9%)
18. Shrewsbury: -120 (-1.9%)
19. Fleetwood: -196 (-2.0%)
20. Exeter: -213 (-2.2%)
21. Carlisle: -204 (-2.4%)
22. Cheltenham: -284 (-2.7%)
23. Northampton: -287 (-3.0%)
24. Lincoln: -273 (-3.2%)

Some of these middle clubs, such as Burton may be in their relative position due to ticket offers for that specific match. For example, we had a kids offer when we played Burton earlier in the season and had our second highest home attendance of the season so far because of it. I also haven't adjusted for midweek matches, but I assumed this would even itself out over a league season.

The question becomes whether we're a particularly big draw or whether it's down to us not having played most of these sides for a prolonged period as to why we cause the biggest increase in home supporters so far. Any thoughts on this?

[Snowflake Royal]

Recent Championship club, not played in ages, great chance of points...

[Stranded]

In a lot of people's minds we are are still a relatively recent PL club who have fallen on hard times - that will definitely pull some people in to see us "put in our place" after years of perceived over achievement.

If we stay up, the more interesting* stats will be what crowds look year on year. For example, unless we are doing well next year and pushing for promotion/play-offs then I expect our travelling numbers to dwindle unless someone comes up that we haven't played in ages - i.e. Stockport, Barrow - would also think we will be less of an attraction if it looks like we have finally put the handbrake on our descent and have a new owner etc.

Out of interest - how of the figures for Derby changed now they are in their second year down here?

[madreadingfan]

I was having a look at the impact on home support when playing various teams in League One.

When looking at overall attendances (both home and away fans): so far the sides we've played away from home have an average attendance of 7,718. Those same sides have averaged 8,454 in matches against us - an increase of 736. That is to say, 736 more people turn up when sides play us than for their average game.

That's the third highest increase in the division, behind Derby (1,455) and Bolton (907) and ahead of Portsmouth (631). In percentage terms, sides playing us see their average attendance increase by 8.7% (Derby 14.3%; Bolton 9.9%; Portsmouth 6.9%)

When looking purely at home supporters (without the away following), the figures are 6,809 and 7,237 respectively - seeing a 428 (or 5.9%) increase in home supporters when sides play us. This represents the biggest increase in the division.

Overall attendance (ordered by percentage increase)

1. Derby: +1,455 (+14.3%)
2. Bolton: +907 (+9.9%)
3. Reading: +736 (+8.7%)
4. Portsmouth: +631 (+6.9%)
5. Blackpool: +452 (+4.8%)
6. Wigan: +358 (+3.5%)
7. Leyton Orient: +292 (+3.1%)
8. Barnsley: +232 (+2.2%)
9. Oxford: +169 (+1.8%)
10. Carlisle: +123 (+1.3%)
11. Cambridge: +95 (+1.1%)
12. Peterborough: -19 (-0.2%)
13. Bristol Rovers: -41 (-0.4%)
14. Charlton: -34 (-0.4%)
15. Port Vale: -61 (-0.7%)
16. Stevenage: -404 (-4.7%)
17. Lincoln: -442 (-4.8%)
18. Northampton: -523 (-5.0%)
19. Wycombe: -482 (-5.1%)
20. Exeter: -542 (-5.3%)
21. Burton: -584 (-5.7%)
22. Shrewsbury: -487 (-7.3%)
23. Cheltenham: -935 (-8.7%)
24. Fleetwood: -948 (-9.6%)

Home attendance (ordered by percentage increase)

1. Reading: +428 (+5.9%)
2. Derby: +313 (+3.9%)
3. Cambridge: +256 (+3.2%)
4. Leyton Orient: +248 (+3.0%)
5. Bolton: +224 (+3.0%)
6. Blackpool: +207 (+2.5%)
7. Barnsley: +161 (+1.7%)
8. Wigan: +105 (+1.1%)
9. Burton: +93 (+0.9%)
10. Portsmouth: +48 (+0.6%)
11. Peterborough: +51 (+0.5%)
12. Oxford: -6 (-0.1%)
13. Stevenage: -26 (-0.3%)
14. Wycombe: -107 (-1.2%)
15. Charlton: -100 (-1.3%)
16. Port Vale: -118 (-1.5%)
17. Bristol Rovers: -190 (-1.9%)
18. Shrewsbury: -120 (-1.9%)
19. Fleetwood: -196 (-2.0%)
20. Exeter: -213 (-2.2%)
21. Carlisle: -204 (-2.4%)
22. Cheltenham: -284 (-2.7%)
23. Northampton: -287 (-3.0%)
24. Lincoln: -273 (-3.2%)

Some of these middle clubs, such as Burton may be in their relative position due to ticket offers for that specific match. For example, we had a kids offer when we played Burton earlier in the season and had our second highest home attendance of the season so far because of it. I also haven't adjusted for midweek matches, but I assumed this would even itself out over a league season.

The question becomes whether we're a particularly big draw or whether it's down to us not having played most of these sides for a prolonged period as to why we cause the biggest increase in home supporters so far. Any thoughts on this?

Pretty interesting stuff - I was thinking about this the other day so thanks for sharing! Also, appreciate the away sales figures you share

[leon]

Its because we've got such lovely kits and we're the best looking boys in the league.

[WestYorksRoyal]

Could we normalise this for the impact of midweek fixtures where attendances are lower? It feels like we've had a lot more home midweek games than away, so maybe more fans turn up to see us because we're nearly always on a Saturday afternoon. Not many Stevenage fans went this week because it was a filthy Tuesday night.

[Brogue]

I like to call it the harlee Dean effect

[leon]

I like to call it the harlee Dean effect

he has the look of a Soviet bloc mental patient

[Clyde1998]

In a lot of people's minds we are are still a relatively recent PL club who have fallen on hard times - that will definitely pull some people in to see us "put in our place" after years of perceived over achievement.

If we stay up, the more interesting* stats will be what crowds look year on year. For example, unless we are doing well next year and pushing for promotion/play-offs then I expect our travelling numbers to dwindle unless someone comes up that we haven't played in ages - i.e. Stockport, Barrow - would also think we will be less of an attraction if it looks like we have finally put the handbrake on our descent and have a new owner etc.

Out of interest - how of the figures for Derby changed now they are in their second year down here?

Derby were +848 (+8.7%) last season when looking at the effect on home fans only.

A lot of very high figure is down to their final away game of the season being at Sheffield Wednesday, who were still in promotion contention until a week prior to that game being played - and was an attendance over 3,500 higher than the next highest Sheffield Wednesday home attendance that season and around 7,000 higher than average. Without that Derby were +567 (+6.4%) - so they're currently down a little bit on last season and could be down to midweek games or who they've played so far.

As you say, it could be a one year thing, with us moving closer to average next season.

Could we normalise this for the impact of midweek fixtures where attendances are lower? It feels like we've had a lot more home midweek games than away, so maybe more fans turn up to see us because we're nearly always on a Saturday afternoon. Not many Stevenage fans went this week because it was a filthy Tuesday night.

If I 'uprate' the midweek home attendances by the same rate of the average percentage fall between midweek and weekend (including bank holidays) matches, not a perfect solution (certain matches will end up with higher attendances than they would actually get on a weekend) but illustrative, you get:

Home attendance (ordered by percentage increase)

1. Derby: +431 (+5.1%)
2. Reading: +355 (+4.8%)
3. Leyton Orient: +193 (+2.3%)
4. Cambridge: +174 (+2.2%)
5. Oxford: +193 (+2.1%)
6. Burton: +193 (+1.9%)
7. Peterborough: +144 (+1.4%)
8. Bolton: +105 (+1.4%)
9. Blackpool: +95 (+1.1%)
10. Barnsley: +12 (+0.1%)
11. Wigan: +5 (+0.1%)
12. Portsmouth: +4 (+0.1%)
13. Cheltenham: -94 (-0.9%)
14. Stevenage: -81 (-1.0%)
15. Shrewsbury: -72 (-1.1%)
16. Fleetwood: -132 (-1.3%)
17. Wycombe: -141 (-1.6%)
18. Bristol Rovers: -166 (-1.6%)
19. Exeter: -174 (-1.7%)
20. Carlisle: -164 (-1.9%)
21. Northampton: -200 (-2.0%)
22. Charlton: -166 (-2.1%)
23. Port Vale: -203 (-2.6%)
24. Lincoln: -340 (-4.0%)

Still a noticeably elevated figure for us, albeit falling behind Derby.

Some of it could still be who we've played so far (and who others have played) - I imagine clubs in the south would see higher increases in their attendances when they play us than northern clubs.

In terms of the standard figures, games against us rank in within top three home attendances for the following clubs:

• 1st - Wycombe
• 2nd - Charlton; Cheltenham; Peterborough; Port Vale
• 3rd - Oxford

The adjusted figures see us fall to third for Charlton and Peterborough.

[Clyde1998]

Pretty interesting stuff - I was thinking about this the other day so thanks for sharing! Also, appreciate the away sales figures you share

Thank you

[Jackson Corner]

Imagine if we were doing well? Considering we have been pants for most of the season that’s quite impressive.

[Clyde1998]

Imagine if we were doing well? Considering we have been pants for most of the season that’s quite impressive.

Our average away followings are probably as good as they've ever been outside of our Premier League seasons. The raw average is certainly comparable to the 2011-12 promotion season, although our average that season was massively helped by very large away followings towards the end of the season: West Ham, Brighton, Southampton and Birmingham. As you say, imagine if we were doing well!

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On a separate note, I've started putting the data I've found (especially around attendances) into a database instead of simply putting it in random Excel spreadsheets - something I should've done years ago. I hope to make a usable website with it which would make it a bit easier to find things than trawling through forum pages.

It's currently at a very early stage right now (very much pre-alpha) and would be very surprised if I finish it before the end of the season: