89 Points?

[Snowball]

Incidentally, Bristol City's sudden run of form...

Last four wins have not been big ones

2-0 at Plymouth who are in free-fall)
2-1 at Norwich which was a complete joke result
2-0 home to Barnsley
2-1 home to Charlton who are relegation fodder

That quick twelve points rockets them up the table, but their record prior to that is not exactly wonderful

A 0-0 Barnsley
H 0-0 Sheffield Utd
H 1-4 Reading
A 1-0 Southampton
H 2-2 Nottm Forest
A 2-4 Crystal Palace
H 1-1 Watford
A 0-2 Preston
H 0-0 Swansea City
A 1-3 Ipswich Town
A 0-0 Sheffield Wed
H 1-2 Burnley
A 4-2 Watford
H 1-0 Crystal Palace
H 2-2 Wolves


W3 D7 L5 16-22 16 points from 15 games (virtually relegation form)

add in the four latest wins

W7 D7 L5 24-24 28 points from their last 19 games, a fraction under 1.5 points a game

Their recent record against sides in the top third isn't too impressive W0 D3 L3 4-10, 3 points from 6 games

H 0-0 Sheffield Utd
H 1-4 Reading
A 0-2 Preston
H 0-0 Swansea City
H 1-2 Burnley
H 2-2 Wolves (mind you they played well)

[cmonurz]

Once again, just making stats say what you want them to.

Bristol City have won 4 on the bounce. They are an in-form team. End of. Points per game for their last 19 games (why 19?!) is completely irrelevant.

[Ian Royal]

Good summary Arch!

[chilipepper91]

Once again, just making stats say what you want them to.

Bristol City have won 4 on the bounce. They are an in-form team. End of. Points per game for their last 19 games (why 19?!) is completely irrelevant.

This is exactly my point too. Snowball was using last 13 games to show god knows what before. Form isn't that consistent.

[Ian Royal]

Once again, just making stats say what you want them to.

Bristol City have won 4 on the bounce. They are an in-form team. End of. Points per game for their last 19 games (why 19?!) is completely irrelevant.

This is exactly my point too. Snowball was using last 13 games to show god knows what before. Form isn't that consistent.

snowball in only picking statistics which show what he wants them to shocker.

IMO if you're going to talk about form it should be talked about in specific amounts only. 5, 10, 15, 20. It's arbitrary, but it gives you a consistent picture, rather than picking 6 here, 8 there, 13 on another occasion.

And it's kind of based on the reasonably accepted case of the table not being worth looking at until at least 10 games have been played.

[Snowball]

Once again, just making stats say what you want them to.

Bristol City have won 4 on the bounce. They are an in-form team. End of. Points per game for their last 19 games (why 19?!) is completely irrelevant.

This is exactly my point too. Snowball was using last 13 games to show god knows what before. Form isn't that consistent.

snowball in only picking statistics which show what he wants them to shocker.
IMO if you're going to talk about form it should be talked about in specific amounts only. 5, 10, 15, 20. It's arbitrary, but it gives you a consistent picture, rather than picking 6 here, 8 there, 13 on another occasion.
And it's kind of based on the reasonably accepted case of the table not being worth looking at until at least 10 games have been played.

You're such NUMPTIES!!

Why exactly would I need to be "selective" about looking at Bristol City's form?

Why should I give a sh!t?

I don't give a toss that Bristol have won 4 (now 5 on the bounce). While a win is a win is a win
what counts is the quality of the opposition,


If by chance a decent club's next 6 games were all at home against all bottom 6 clubs, we ought to expect them to W4 D2, W5 D1 or W6


That's all the point I'm making. They have played mostly crap sides to get their results and when they have
played the good sides they mostly lost. How complicated is that?

We beat a crappy side (Watford) 4-0 even though we didn't play well. You cannot only look at the result.

If we played Newport County tomorrow we ought to win 10-0 (so what?)

Reading will stuff Bristol City and Bristol City will finish outside the play-offs.

You want to put yer money where yer mouth is?

[Snowball]

It's like (already) some toss-pot has gone on about Brum making second. So?

Coppell knows. The bookies know.

From the radio it seemed that for most of the game Brum were poor
and who exactly did they beat?


Ummmm. let's see, Nottinghamm Forest, 19th, goal difference -11

19 Nottm Forest 32 4 6 6 16 19 4 4 8 18 26 -11 34


If we were home to Forest, what;s the minimum we'd expect, a 2-0 win?

[Victor Meldrew]

Just a point about Bristol City-they have just beaten Saints 2-0,the same Saints who have beaten us and drawn against us in the past couple of months so on that line of form City should beat us.
Fortunately selective form doesn't win you matches.
The one factor that worries me about the upcoming game v City is not THEIR form but our poor performances during the past few years when the players have had a long break between matches.

[cmonurz]

I don't give a toss that Bristol have won 4 (now 5 on the bounce). While a win is a win is a win
what counts is the quality of the opposition,

How many points did we take off Southampton this season?

[Snowball]

Just a point about Bristol City-they have just beaten Saints 2-0,the same Saints who have beaten us and drawn against us in the past couple of months so on that line of form City should beat us.
Fortunately selective form doesn't win you matches.
The one factor that worries me about the upcoming game v City is not THEIR form but our poor performances during the past few years when the players have had a long break between matches.

Agree with that, but the reality is Saints are a club in second-bottom place with a GD of -11
and all sorts of problems off the pitch (which must affect the players)

And surely the most obvious "selective form" is Bristol City 1-4 Reading?

They will be bouncing, full of confidence but they are being hyped a bit

A 4-2 Watford
H 1-0 Crystal Palace
H 2-2 Wolves
A 2-0 Plymouth
H 2-0 Barnsley
H 2-1 Charlton
A 2-1 Norwich City
H 2-0 Southampton

Those clubs are


They have had seven wins out of eight games but 6 matches against the bottom six!!!

BOTTOM (Charlton)
Second bottom (Saints)
Third bottom (Watford)
Fourth Bottom (Barnsley)
Fifth Bottom (Norwich)
Seventh Bottom (Plymouth) (worst current record)

13th (Palace)

They got a 2-2 draw against Wolves (Goodd?) not exactly. Wolves last 6 are W1 D2 L3

Their last 9 in the league are W1 D4 L4 14-18 7 points

Obviously a win is a win is a win

Plymouth's recent record is W1 D4 Lost NINE and they also lost a cup gain, so have lost 10 out of 14 scoring 6 conceding 18
Their only win in 14 games is v Southampton

[Snowball]

I don't give a toss that Bristol have won 4 (now 5 on the bounce). While a win is a win is a win
what counts is the quality of the opposition,

How many points did we take off Southampton this season?

ENOUGH TO BE FAVOURITES FOR PROMOTION WITH EVERY BOOKIE IN THE COUNTRY

[Snowball]

I LOVE THE WAY SOME OF YOU GRAB AT A RESULT AS IF A ONE-OFF OR TWO-OFF

WEIGHTS MORE THAN THE TABLE AS A WHOLE OR THE LAST DOZEN MATCHES.



Bristol's only win of any note in this run was against Crystal Palace

and this is their glorious run since then

A LOST 0-1 Bristol City
H LOST 1-4 Ipswich Town
A LOST 3-4 Watford
A LOST 0-1 Charlton
H LOST 0-1 Blackpool

scored 4 conceded 11, managed to lose to the bottom club


Is there a pattern there, d'you think?

[cmonurz]

The pattern is that Bristol City have won 5 on the bounce. My point about Southampton is a relevant one since you seek to diminish City's recent run by the quality of the teams that they have played. Yes, you might expect better results against those teams, but as with Reading against Southampton, or Birmingham's two defeats to Blackpool this season, results aren't that uniform.

Your original post sought to make City's last 19 games some kind of relevant statistic. It simply isn't. Reading will be favourites to beat City, but they are on a good run, and Reading, with two wins in 7, are not.

[Ian Royal]

The pattern is that Bristol City have won 5 on the bounce. My point about Southampton is a relevant one since you seek to diminish City's recent run by the quality of the teams that they have played. Yes, you might expect better results against those teams, but as with Reading against Southampton, or Birmingham's two defeats to Blackpool this season, results aren't that uniform.

Your original post sought to make City's last 19 games some kind of relevant statistic. It simply isn't. Reading will be favourites to beat City, but they are on a good run, and Reading, with two wins in 7, are not.

Pretty impossible to argue with that. It's a potentially big banana skin. A loss and the wheels are falling off here almost as badly as at Wolves. Similar with a draw. A win and things start looking a bit more rosey again. But we really really need the confidence boost of putting a 2 or 3 goals past Bristol and then beating Forest. If we can do that I wouldn't be surprised to see us string a very strong run together.

If we don't get a decent result against Bristol I can see us struggling all the way to the end of the season and falling into Play off failure.

[Snowball]

The pattern is that Bristol City have won 5 on the bounce. My point about Southampton is a relevant one since you seek to diminish City's recent run by the quality of the teams that they have played. Yes, you might expect better results against those teams, but as with Reading against Southampton, or Birmingham's two defeats to Blackpool this season, results aren't that uniform.

Your original post sought to make City's last 19 games some kind of relevant statistic. It simply isn't. Reading will be favourites to beat City, but they are on a good run, and Reading, with two wins in 7, are not.

Pretty impossible to argue with that. It's a potentially big banana skin. A loss and the wheels are falling off here almost as badly as at Wolves. Similar with a draw. A win and things start looking a bit more rosey again. But we really really need the confidence boost of putting a 2 or 3 goals past Bristol and then beating Forest. If we can do that I wouldn't be surprised to see us string a very strong run together.

If we don't get a decent result against Bristol I can see us struggling all the way to the end of the season and falling into Play off failure.

Why is so HARD to take into account the quality of the opposition?


Bristol have played all bar one clubs from the bottom six: two of which were on terrible runs, one just starting a terrible run
Reading in the same period have played all bar one top sides 3 of whom are on long unbeaten runs



I agree that a defeat v Bristol would suddenly make the run very worrying, but that's because Bristol
are a mid-table team quality-wise and will not finish in the top eight by the end of the season.

[Snowball]

The pattern is that Bristol City have won 5 on the bounce. My point about Southampton is a relevant one since you seek to diminish City's recent run by the quality of the teams that they have played. Yes, you might expect better results against those teams, but as with Reading against Southampton, or Birmingham's two defeats to Blackpool this season, results aren't that uniform.

Your original post sought to make City's last 19 games some kind of relevant statistic. It simply isn't. Reading will be favourites to beat City, but they are on a good run, and Reading, with two wins in 7, are not.

Why EXACTLY will Reading be favourites to beat Bristol?

Why are Reading 11/8 to win the championship and Bristol 309/1?

Why are Reading 2/5 for promotion and Bristol 10-1? (Crap odds BTW)

Why don't the bookies see Reading as falling apart? Could it be because they look at the team, the squad, the management
and when they judge recent form they also consider the quality of the opposition?


BEST ODDS, BTW HAS TO BE SWANSEA 6/1 TO BE PROMOTED.

[Schards#2]

The pattern is that Bristol City have won 5 on the bounce. My point about Southampton is a relevant one since you seek to diminish City's recent run by the quality of the teams that they have played. Yes, you might expect better results against those teams, but as with Reading against Southampton, or Birmingham's two defeats to Blackpool this season, results aren't that uniform.

Your original post sought to make City's last 19 games some kind of relevant statistic. It simply isn't. Reading will be favourites to beat City, but they are on a good run, and Reading, with two wins in 7, are not.

Pretty impossible to argue with that. It's a potentially big banana skin. A loss and the wheels are falling off here almost as badly as at Wolves. Similar with a draw. A win and things start looking a bit more rosey again. But we really really need the confidence boost of putting a 2 or 3 goals past Bristol and then beating Forest. If we can do that I wouldn't be surprised to see us string a very strong run together.

If we don't get a decent result against Bristol I can see us struggling all the way to the end of the season and falling into Play off failure.

Why is so HARD to take into account the quality of the opposition?

It's not - Reading's only two wins in their last eight games have been against two teams in poor form.

Simple

[Snowball]

It's not - Reading's only two wins in their last eight games have been against two teams in poor form.

Simple

EXCEPT WE HAVE WON THREE

1 A 3-1 Birmingham WIN
2 H 1-1 Cardiff City
3 A 1-1 Southampton
4 H 4-0 Watford WIN
5 A 0-2 Swansea City
6 H 1-0 Wolves WIN
7 A 0-0 QPR
8 H 0-0 Preston

Played 8

W3 D4 L1 10-5 13 points 1.625 points per game, a 75 point season (play-offs) so we are only FRACTIONALLY off 16 points would be championship form

[Southbank Old Boy]

The thing that makes form important is that its the recent performances and results that gives that team the confidence and momentum for the next game

It doesnt really matter who the wins are against, they have won 5 on the spin and so are now in the habit of winning games and will go into any game feeling they can win it

[Snowball]

The thing that makes form important is that its the recent performances and results that gives that team the confidence and momentum for the next game

It doesnt really matter who the wins are against, they have won 5 on the spin and so are now in the habit of winning games and will go into any game feeling they can win it

It DOES matter who the wins are against.

Yes, of course they will be growing in confidence, any win does that
but I think it's called "a reality check" when a side that has been picking
up wins against inferior opposition suddenly has to play a good side