89 Points?

[cmonurz]

And Bristol City's early season form was not as good as their current 7 wins in 9!

Christ on a bike. Don't you see that it's not the particular points I am making that are important, it is showing that you can't just use these stats to 'prove' your personal opinion. Some might consider a loss at Watford (Swansea on Tues) to be much worse than a loss at Doncaster (Bristol on Tues), some might not.

Football is a game of opinions. If you are going to bring stats into the equation, then you have to use all of them, subjectively. In some respects you do, looking at their overall points per game etc, but when it suits you, you twist stuff around to represent your viewpoint (an example being your repeated posting of when Swansea's defeats have come this season).

Just sit back with a beer and let it all unfold.

[Alan Partridge]

Holy jesus why are Bristol City or Swansea even turning up when Snowball has already mapped up the rest of their season for us?

Who knows what will happen, who would have foreseen in 2004/5 when Reading were 2nd that they wouldn't win a game for the next 2 or 3 months? That's the beauty of football in that no one knows which teams will falter and which teams will flourish. Who will lose key players? and all the rest of it.

These 'stats' and I use that term in the loosest possible term are the biggest load of crap put on this board in a long long time. No offence personally Snowball but they prove nothing with regards to the future.

[Mr Angry]

As I see it, there is NOTHING to prevent 3 teams getting 90 points this season.

In that scenario, a team getting 89 points doesn't get promoted.

The big issue for us is our away form; have you added that into your calculations Snowball?

[Sun Tzu]

As I see it, there is NOTHING to prevent 3 teams getting 90 points this season.

In that scenario, a team getting 89 points doesn't get promoted.

The big issue for us is our away form; have you added that into your calculations Snowball?

As long as he's factored in our home form our away form is plenty good enough to see us promoted.

[Snowball]

And Bristol City's early season form was not as good as their current 7 wins in 9!

If you say so, so how many games have each club lost if we drop that first 8 games? (Swansea lost 3 of their first

That is, allowing for each "rough start"

BRISTOL
Lost 2 of their first 08 games = (P08 W03 D03 L2 = 12 points = 1.50 points per game)
Lost 7 of their next 25 games = (P25 W10 D08 L7 = 38 points = 1.52 points per game)

So Bristol's first 8 = their next 25

SWANSEA
Lost 3 of their first 08 games (P08 W2 D03 L3 = 09 points from 06 = 1.13 per game
Lost 3 of their next 24 games (P24 W9 D12 L3 = 39 points from 24 = 1.63 per game

Swansea are averaging an extra half point per game compared to their first 8 games

[cmonurz]

So? My comment stands. You have made selective use of stats again. Bristol City's 'good run' is their 7 wins in their last 9 games. It is absolutely true to say that their recent form is better than their start of season form.

[Snowball]

As I see it, there is NOTHING to prevent 3 teams getting 90 points this season.
In that scenario, a team getting 89 points doesn't get promoted.
The big issue for us is our away form; have you added that into your calculations Snowball?

It has happened ONCE, but it's very, very unlikely

This is what clubs have to do to get 90 points

31 15 2.07 per game Reading (Have to play Sheffield and Birmingham)
27 13 2.08 per game Wolves (Have to play Cardiff and Birmingham)
30 14 2.14 per game Birmingham (Have to play Wolves, Preston, Sheffield, Reading)
39 17 2.29 per game Cardiff (Have to play Wolves, Sheffield, Preston)

The two teams below would have to break the record for run-in points

39 14 2.79 per game Sheffield (Have to play Birmingham, Cardiff, Reading and win 13 from 14 )
37 13 2.85 per game Preston (Have to win 12 and draw 1 of 13 (Beating/Drawing Cardiff/Birmingham)

It will be quite miraculous if three sides reach 90 points

[cmonurz]

I don't think it would be miraculous for the sides three best sides to average two points per game to the end of the season.

[Snowball]

So? My comment stands. You have made selective use of stats again. Bristol City's 'good run' is their 7 wins in their last 9 games. It is absolutely true to say that their recent form is better than their start of season form.

Interesting, I raised the issue of 3 losses in first 8 and the next 24, saying "Swansea had a less-good start"

You say, in responses that Bristol ALSO had a poor start (but it was almost half a point per game better than Swansea)
but then drop the 24 games and decide on 7... and you are therefore not making a direct comparison

But you say I'M selective

[Snowball]

I don't think it would be miraculous for the sides three best sides to average two points per game to the end of the season.

Let's get some perspective here: a 106 point season = 2.3 points per game


The tops sides PLAY EACH OTHER, AND they have to average MORE THAN 2 points per game

31 15 2.07 per game Reading (Have to play Sheffield and Birmingham)
27 13 2.08 per game Wolves (Have to play Cardiff and Birmingham)
30 14 2.14 per game Birmingham (Have to play Wolves, Preston, Sheffield, Reading)
39 17 2.29 per game Cardiff (Have to play Wolves, Sheffield, Preston)


If Reading beat Birmingham then Birmingham would need to get 30 from 13 = 2.31 = TEN wins three defeats

and of course if it was the other way round then Reading would need 31 from 14 = 2.21 per game

If Wolves and Birmingham draw, Wolves have to get 26 from 12 = 2.17 8 Wins 2 draws

It isn't (YET) impossible, but it would be the most freakish set of results in history

[PEARCEY]

THIS THREAD NEEDS TO DIE



DIE THREAD DIE

[cmonurz]

So? My comment stands. You have made selective use of stats again. Bristol City's 'good run' is their 7 wins in their last 9 games. It is absolutely true to say that their recent form is better than their start of season form.

Interesting, I raised the issue of 3 losses in first 8 and the next 24, saying "Swansea had a less-good start"

You say, in responses that Bristol ALSO had a poor start (but it was almost half a point per game better than Swansea)
but then drop the 24 games and decide on 7... and you are therefore not making a direct comparison

But you say I'M selective

Yes, YOU are selective. You bring up one set of stats, someone counters them, so you change them slightly, someone counters them, you change them slightly again. And so on.

[Snowball]

All stats are relevant

Last game, last 4, last six, last ten, last twelve, last 18, last 24, whole season

Otherwise, why do people harp on about the last four and "we" haven't scored. Isn't that selective?

[cmonurz]

My point stands. The reason the goalposts keep moving is because you change the stats every time someone makes a counter-point.

[Mr Angry]

My view on stats is that they should be used to show trends, and even then treated with caution; thats why the fact that we haven't scored for the last 4 games (bar an own goal) is important. It is showing a trend that we arent scoring goals (obviously), but the importance is in trying to understand why, and I would suggest its because teams have sussed us - they put 5 across the middle and stifle our capability to feed our wingers, and then stifle to wingers to prevent enough decent crosses coming in to set up goal scoring chances.

This then gives the management food for thought, and possibly make them change formation/shape/tactics/personnel.

That, in a nutshell, is why that particular stat is useful.

Whether Bristol's run is better than Swansea's is an interesting debate, but ultimately not particularly relevant as to whether we get promoted or not.

As for how unlikely it is for 3 teams to get 90+ points, I totally agree; unfortunately, I (like you) remember the 2001/02 season where we drew 10 out of the last 11 games, and from a position of statistical immovability from being League 1 Champions, ended up scrapping auto promotion with about 11 mins left of our last game!

With 15 games to go I'm going to predict the following:

We win the Championship
Brum go up with us
Wolves go up via the play-offs.

[Snowball]

My point stands. The reason the goalposts keep moving is because you change the stats every time someone makes a counter-point.

You mean like when I said Swansea had a bad start and are much better now
you said, "Well Bristol had a bad start too"

So I compared first 8 versus all games SINCE the first 8
and showed that in fact Bristol did NOT have a bad start
and averaged 1.5 points per game for the first 8 and 1.52 since

so you then just took the last 7 games for Bristol, ignoring the crap results immediately before that mini-run?


As for a discussion that brings in other stats, that is just a more complete argument
and is a normal process of debate

[Snowball]

My view on stats is that they should be used to show trends, a

With 15 games to go I'm going to predict the following:

We win the Championship
Brum go up with us
Wolves go up via the play-offs.

I worry about Birmingham. They OUGHT to be better based on their quality and experience.

They seem to have been fairly crappy yet nicked so many games, like their first, a 94th minute
1-0 versus a very unlucky Sheffield United. I worry that, being "not-very-good" they are in 2nd
and maybe they will finally get a run together.

I believe we SHOULD win the championship but might need extra away wins to do it.

If we lost or drew 0-0 tomorrow, though, then I'd be very worried.

Here's hoping for a solid two-goal win or better

[T.R.O.L.I.]

With 15 games to go I'm going to predict the following:

We win the Championship
Brum go up with us
Wolves go up via the play-offs.

I will predict the same top two but Wolves will not make it up via the playoffs as they've been top for so long that only finishing in the playoffs will be a massive downer on their playoff hopes.

My tip for the playoffs: Sheff Utd

[Snowball]

Cardiff have to play Swansea in the run-in (come on Swansea!)

but I still fancy both of them to make the PO's, and if they are kept apart, play the final
then there's very little in it, IMO


But it's so tight, a short run (3) of wins or defeats could radically change the scenery


All I know is Bristol WON'T make the play-offs

[cmonurz]

My point stands. The reason the goalposts keep moving is because you change the stats every time someone makes a counter-point.

You mean like when I said Swansea had a bad start and are much better now
you said, "Well Bristol had a bad start too"

So I compared first 8 versus all games SINCE the first 8
and showed that in fact Bristol did NOT have a bad start
and averaged 1.5 points per game for the first 8 and 1.52 since

so you then just took the last 7 games for Bristol, ignoring the crap results immediately before that mini-run?

No, that interpretation of how this discussion has developed is utterly wrong, and misrepresents what you have done.