Final 12 Games

[brendywendy]

It's still on Brendy.

of course!

[SLAMMED]

I see you've deleted the FA cup predictions

And your AV makes me smile every time I see it

[Mr Angry]

In other words, there are far too many variables attached to a football match to be able to predict with any certainty, what will happen.

I have to take issue with this statement. How else do betting companies/professional bettors make their money?

Professional gamblers will only take a bet that they believe has value to it, and then go in large on it; even then, there is a massive element of risk in the venture; take Harry Findlay, THE best known of the professional gamblers. He lost a small fortune early on by backing Watford to beat Everton in the Milk Cup as he knew that Everton were going to field a reserve side. 89 minutes, and Watford were 1-0 up; at the final whistle, Everton had won 2-1. In other words, even when having an edge with regard to information before putting money down, he still lost.

In the bookies yesterday, I got chatting to a guy who was betting on football, and he asked me what I thought of our chances; my reply was that we had serious injury issues and a makeshift back 4 BUT I thought we still had enough to beat Barnsley, a team we do well against. (This was before I had seen the team!!) With that info, he chose to lump on Reading (£500 for the win); he won, but he was taking a risk because nothing was certain (what if Barnsley had scored instead of missing an open goal when Bryn and McCarthy got into a tangle at 0-0??). Thats why the game is so exciting because pretty well anything can happen, and why someone saying that they can predict what will happen with zealous certainty is rubbish.

[Snowball]

Last six league games

DWDWWW

So that's another stat blown out of the water, we CAN win three league games on the spin.

14 points from 6 games = 2.33 ppg, on target for 35 in the last 15 games

Now let's hope we can make that four.


PS Even if we lose at home to Pompey we will still be on 2 ppg for 7 of the 15 games

[MmmMonsterMunch]

Last six league games

DWDWWW

So that's another stat blown out of the water, we CAN win three league games on the spin.

14 points from 6 games = 2.33 ppg, on target for 35 in the last 15 games

Now let's hope we can make that four.


PS Even if we lose at home to Pompey we will still be on 2 ppg for 7 of the 15 games

I said we needed to win 3 of the next 4 league games to have a shout & we've managed to do it. Absolutely amazing that it's in our own hands now.

Given the results yesterday it could be possible that 73/74 might just sneak it - 5 wins & 1 draw is not out of the question at all. 75 I reckon will definitely do it.

Very exciting!

I really hope we beat Pompey - that will be a huge test for us. They are our bogey team though - never seen us beat them!

[Mr Angry]

We are currently 3rd in the Form table, with Bristol City and QPR ahead of us, and Pompey immediately behind...

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2010-2011/form-table/full

....and have to play 3 of the current bottom 4 after playing Pompey next game.

Game on.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

5 home games left - If we can take 10 pts from those we have a fantastic chance.

[rhroyal]

5 home games left - If we can take 10 pts from those we have a fantastic chance.

To be honest we have a good home record and they're all against teams below us. I'd be disappointed with 10 points,

[MmmMonsterMunch]

I wouldn't be disappointed at all with 10 pts. You really think 3 wins & a draw from 5 home games is bad?!

Particularly given that Pompey are flying right now, and Preston have put a good little run together & these are our next 2 fixtures. Plus Sheff U may be fighting for their lives when we face them in Apr.

We have just as much chance of points from away games IMO (albeit we only have 4).

[Kitson12]

I wouldn't be disappointed at all with 10 pts. You really think 3 wins & a draw from 5 home games is bad?!

Particularly given that Pompey are flying right now, and Preston have put a good little run together & these are our next 2 fixtures. Plus Sheff U may be fighting for their lives when we face them in Apr.

We have just as much chance of points from away games IMO (albeit we only have 4).

What and one loss? To whom? I can see 4 wins and a draw, therefore 13 points.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

I wouldn't be disappointed at all with 10 pts. You really think 3 wins & a draw from 5 home games is bad?!

Particularly given that Pompey are flying right now, and Preston have put a good little run together & these are our next 2 fixtures. Plus Sheff U may be fighting for their lives when we face them in Apr.

We have just as much chance of points from away games IMO (albeit we only have 4).

What and one loss? To whom? I can see 4 wins and a draw, therefore 13 points.

I wasn't being specific about who we might lose to - Am just saying that 10 pts from 5 home games is perfectly acceptable & is realistic. If you asked me who we'd lose to at home I'd probably say Pompey or Leicester. It's such a funny league though - I wouldn't be surprised if we lost against any of them.

We could beat Pompey, Leeds, Forest, Leicester for example & then still lose againt Cov, Derby, Scunny. Anyone can beat anyone.

5 wins & a draw may just be enough to get us up on GD therefore 3 wins & a draw from the home games would be a pretty decent return.

But hey its just my opinion. Being a tad unrealistic to expect us to take max points from our home games. It just doesn't work like that.

[Ian Royal]

I wouldn't be disappointed at all with 10 pts. You really think 3 wins & a draw from 5 home games is bad?!

Particularly given that Pompey are flying right now, and Preston have put a good little run together & these are our next 2 fixtures. Plus Sheff U may be fighting for their lives when we face them in Apr.

We have just as much chance of points from away games IMO (albeit we only have 4).

What and one loss? To whom? I can see 4 wins and a draw, therefore 13 points.

I could conceivably see us losing to any of those teams tbh. And I expect the best we'll get out of Pompey is a draw. Lets face it it wouldn't be a huge surprise for us to draw three of those home games.

Coventry and Scunny are probably the easist of all our games based on form and league placing, but we don't have a great record against either of them.

[MmmMonsterMunch]

If we win all 5 home games then we're definitely in the play-offs that's for sure!! My guess is we'll be 4th or 5th come May if that happened.

Just can't see it myself. Pompey are the ultimate bogey team for us. Always have been!

[brendywendy]

W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W(POSF)
W(POF)

take that you negative ninnies

[Snowball]

If we win all 5 home games then we're definitely in the play-offs that's for sure!! My guess is we'll be 4th or 5th come May if that happened.

Just can't see it myself. Pompey are the ultimate bogey team for us. Always have been!

Sorry, I didn't quite catch that...

[Ian Royal]

Brian is making the end of this season extremely painful for me. Bad Brian.

[roadrunner]

5th April 2011
Reading 2 - Preston 1

7 more games to go.

1 QPR 39 79
2 Norwich City 39 70
================
3 Cardiff City 39 66
4 Swansea City 39 66
5 Leeds United 39 64
6 Reading 39 63
--------------------------
7 Notts Forest 39 60
8 Millwall 39 57
9 Burnley 38 57
10 Watford 39 56
11 Hull City 39 56
12 Leicester City 39 56

[rhroyal]

75 points is nearly always enough for play-offs. That means 12 points from the final 7 games; 4 wins. Scunthorpe, Sheff Utd, Derby, Coventry? Leicester? You would expect us to make it on current form. Those 2 away games at Ipswich and Barnsley could prove huge.

[roadrunner]

Sat 9 A Nottm Forest
Tue 12 A Scunthorpe
Sat 16 H Leicester City
Fri 22 A Leeds United
Mon 25 H Sheffield Utd
Sat 30 A Coventry City
Sat 7 H Derby County

Leicester is the key game in the next three IMO. I can see us losing at Forest, Scunny isn't a banker either. Leeds away is always daunting, and they for me are the biggest test left in those league fixtures. Those three home games are massive to us!

IN for Coventry away, inflatables, mass piss up and play-off party shenanigans.

[leicsRoyal]

Derby?