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[Snowball]

I love the way you pass this off as some kind of great insight when EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS

We're in a very tight race for promotion and nobody knows how it's going to end, that's why it's so exciting.

I'm not "passing off" anything, and IMO this finish is NOT typical, not at all.

The fates have arranged things that we could easily be champions, and by a few points (to do that we'd need 2ppg from 7 games and to beat West Ham and Saints...)

But, because there are so many crucial games, and ppg averages are suddenly meaningless, we could, without any real shock results (losing those 5 toughies would not be a shock IMO, draw with Leeds, even lose if they are on a late-late run,
and maybe fail to beat Forest andor Palace)


For most 9-game runs I'd be happy to bet we'd get between 1.8 ppg and 2.5 ppg, so maybe 18-19-20 points, but I could see us losing at Peterboro, and, if we did, as has been said, "the wheels coming off."


There are two kinds of "tight races". In one the main contenders are NOT playing each other over the last 6-10 games, and then it's just a ppg race. But we have FIVE, and maybe 6 contenders to play in these 9 games. That to me, means it's very very hard to predict

[Z175]

Some negative things

I agree with Snowball, can't see us winning another game.

Well of course, we can by no means count our automatic chickens but I doubt anyone is. With WHU games in hand, our draw at Donny, we have only caught up WHU/Saints. Its any 2 from 3 now, which is fantastic given how far behind we were, but far from guaranteed. Especially given our tricky April. Maybe our form will see us through, maybe WHU have hard games too, maybe one of us 3 will blow up.

But we shouldn't expect automatic, and hopefully we don't. If WHU /Southampton slip into the playoffs then I doubt they'd recover having been top 2 for almost 40 games. But our mentality from coming form 23rd place means we'd rightly be favourites I think. And on 70 points we only need 2 wins from 9 to guarantee the playoffs, so those playoff chickens are counted.

Some people on here have posted inane comments on Readings poor chances of making the top 6, abuse of John Madejski, slagging off the likes of our captain and our keeper. Its just nice that whatever happens next, we have solved the RTG v STG debate.

For me its down to home form now. I know WHU and Reading have the best away records, both will pick up wins and draws on the road. But if either can win their home games they might steal a march. Blackpool, Leeds, Forest and Palace will be tough, but if we win them and deny WHU a win over us, we will do it.

[RobRoyal]

FWIW I'll be surprised if we get more than a point from the back-to-back away games at Brighton at Southampton. Bouncing back with 2 home wins before the final day will be a big task, and a crucial one.

[Snowball]

BTW, I am NOT saying we are suddenly going to fall away, just
making the point that ATM things are extremely "delicately poised."

I think I would rather the next three to be draws than WWL

and personally, I think if we win our next three games we'll finish in the autos

I do think these three are massive, though

A Peterborough
H Blackpool
A West Ham

H Leeds
A Brighton
A Southampton


H Nottm Forest
H Palace
A Birmingham

[Cobi]

I love the way you pass this off as some kind of great insight when EVERYBODY KNOWS THIS

We're in a very tight race for promotion and nobody knows how it's going to end, that's why it's so exciting.

I'm not "passing off" anything

In all fairness to Snowball, the only thing he is good at passing is wind.

#skoolsout

[Avon Royal]

I think I would rather the next three to be draws than WWL

Eh?

WWL = 6 points for us with a maximum of 9 for West Ham = 3 point difference max.

DDD = 3 points for us with a maximum of 7 for West Ham = 4 point difference max.

[melonhead]

not to mention the extra pressure from drawing 3 in a row, and loss of confidence that may bring

[Maguire]

Yeah that's just mental, even by Snowflake's standards

[Maguire]

BTW, I am NOT saying we are suddenly going to fall away, just
making the point that ATM things are extremely "delicately poised.

I'm glad you made that point because I doubt any of us had worked that out by looking at the table

[Maguire]

FWIW I'll be surprised if we get more than a point from the back-to-back away games at Brighton at Southampton

I won't.

[Ian Royal]

Yeah that's just mental, even by Snowflake's standards

No wonder he's becoming known as "Icke". That's bafflingly mental. I'm not sure why, but Icke appears to be of the opinion that most of the residents of HNA? are drooling imbeciles incapable of any thought beyond the simplest of base animal instinct.


Can't think what might have given him that impression.

[Snowball]

BTW, I am NOT saying we are suddenly going to fall away, just
making the point that ATM things are extremely "delicately poised.

I'm glad you made that point because I doubt any of us had worked that out by looking at the table

Mags, I'm not talking about whether we finish 1-2-3, not in terms of who accrues the most points
out of Saints, RFC and WHU. That is a no-brainer.

The difference with the current scenario is the number of 6 pointers,
in RFC's case either 55% or 67% of the remaining games, and that's an
amazing statistic... which is why with good luck we'll be champions,
but with just a little bad luck we'll end up fourth and probably lose the POs

[Snowball]

not to mention the extra pressure from drawing 3 in a row, and loss of confidence that may bring

But if we have gone to WHU and avoided defeat, the confidence will be back.

BTW I'm not ADVOCATING getting three draws, just saying
I want to avoid defeat at WHU

[Woodcote Royal]

It would take very little going "seriously wrong" for us
to end up 4th, beaten by Birmingham on the last day.

There would be nothing particularly "exceptional" for us to lose
to Saints and West Ham and Brighton, and to fail to beat Blackpool

I think it's time you started groping for a sense of perspective

Given our form since September, losing 3 and drawing one of those games would represent nothing short of an "exceptional" loss of form.

[Snowball]

To lose by the odd goal at Saints, Brighton, Birmingham, West Ham


would not be "loss of form"

[Woodcote Royal]

Again, given that we're unbeaten in 10? it's painfully obvious that it would be..........................

[winchester_royal]

Yep, add in the fact that we beat 3 of the 4 sides earlier in the season, and should have thumped the other, makes Snowball's thesis look more than a bit silly.

[Snowball]

Again, given that we're unbeaten in 10? it's painfully obvious that it would be..........................

Nope.


We have done very well in the last ten games, but NOT against the very top sides

We have played the bottom 4, 6 from the bottom 8, plus 6th, 11th, 12th... so to imagine we COULD lose to 1st, 3rd, 4th, 8th (all away) is hardly "earth-shattering"

24 Portsmouth
23 Doncaster
22 Coventry
21 Bristol
19 Millwall
17 Barnsley
14 Burnley
12 Leicester
11 Derby
06 Middlesboro

[Snowball]

Yep, add in the fact that we beat 3 of the 4 sides earlier in the season, and should have thumped the other, makes Snowball's thesis look more than a bit silly.

We SCRAPED 1-0 AT HOME versus Birmingham (but have to go there) and there home record is 11-7-1

We couldn't beat 10-men Southampton (who have a terrible away record) and have a home record of 14-3-2

West Ham were reduced to 9 men by the end of their game at the MadStad

Brighton aren't exactly great away from home (lost 8 games) but are 10-5-3 at home

[winchester_royal]

Yep, add in the fact that we beat 3 of the 4 sides earlier in the season, and should have thumped the other, makes Snowball's thesis look more than a bit silly.

We SCRAPED 1-0 AT HOME versus Birmingham (but have to go there) and there home record is 11-7-1

We couldn't beat 10-men Southampton (who have a terrible away record) and have a home record of 14-3-2

West Ham were reduced to 9 men by the end of their game at the MadStad

Brighton aren't exactly great away from home (lost 8 games) but are 10-5-3 at home

Is that the best you can do?

I see you decided to omit West Ham's home record as well