by The Prisoner »
14 Feb 2019 10:46
It's easy to become paranoid when you are down at the bottom, but the realities are that after 30 plus games the table doesn't lie and that the teams who are down there are there for a reason.
What that also means is that those teams - having been bobbins for two-thirds of the season - are unlikely to suddenly turn into world beaters and putting unbelievable runs together. Sure it does happen, but Wigan, Millwall, us, Rotherham, Bolton and Ipswich have won just 36 games between them all season from 191 games - less than 19%.
Looking at the trends of form over the last 10 games Ipswich are averaging 0.5 points per game, then Rotherham on 0.6, Bolton 0.8, Wigan 0.9, us 1 point per game and then Millwall 1.2. These figures are unlikely to fluctuate considerably between now and the end of the season.
Transposing those form returns to the remaining games is a good a place to start as any. That would leave the table as follows:
Millwall 49 points
Wigan 47
Reading 45
-----------------------------
Bolton 37
Rotherham 36
Ipswich 26
This projection is largely reflected in the odds.
Ipswich are a short as 1/50, Bolton as short as 1/10 and Rotherham are around 1/2 to go down. Then it is us, but we are drifting to around 6/5 on average having been shorter, Millwall are around 7/1 and Wigan around 18/1. IMO the bookies have got Millwall and Wigan the wrong way round, but they are both at prices which reflect an opinion that they should be safe.
Stoke on form are the only other team who could get involved, but realistically they are too strong and may even have enough points already. It is three from six, but I would much rather be in our position than the teams below on current form.