Coronavirus outbreak

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andrew1957
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by andrew1957 » 26 Mar 2020 19:47

windermereROYAL Why don`t people fecking listen? I`ve ventured out once in the last week, and that was only to do some shopping, but looking around it`s the `it can`t happen to me` ideology.
Get a grip you fecking melts, this is as serious as anything any of us will ever face in our entires lives.


I think I find it a bit hard to get worked up about as I was told in May 2017 that I had 3-6 months to live from a serious cancer. I was offered a 7 hour life changing op and two months in hospital to recover which "might" give me some extra time. I decided against having this treatment and that I would live out what was left of my life as well as I could and die a natural death. However, I did take steps to improve my diet and took probiotic and vitamin C daily and the cancer slowly healed and went completely within 6 months. The NHS has no explanation. I never even took one day off work. I doubt anyone will believe me but I have all the letters from the oncologist to prove it.

Once you have faced and accepted your own death it puts everything into perspective and it has made me realise that people in the rich western countries have too great a sense of entitlement and unrealistic expectations about what the health services can achieve. Perhaps COVID-19 is a good thing as it will make us all face the possibility of our own mortality and perhaps rethink our priorities.

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Zip
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 26 Mar 2020 19:54

andrew1957
windermereROYAL Why don`t people fecking listen? I`ve ventured out once in the last week, and that was only to do some shopping, but looking around it`s the `it can`t happen to me` ideology.
Get a grip you fecking melts, this is as serious as anything any of us will ever face in our entires lives.


I think I find it a bit hard to get worked up about as I was told in May 2017 that I had 3-6 months to live from a serious cancer. I was offered a 7 hour life changing op and two months in hospital to recover which "might" give me some extra time. I decided against having this treatment and that I would live out what was left of my life as well as I could and die a natural death. However, I did take steps to improve my diet and took probiotic and vitamin C daily and the cancer slowly healed and went completely within 6 months. The NHS has no explanation. I never even took one day off work. I doubt anyone will believe me but I have all the letters from the oncologist to prove it.

Once you have faced and accepted your own death it puts everything into perspective and it has made me realise that people in the rich western countries have too great a sense of entitlement and unrealistic expectations about what the health services can achieve. Perhaps COVID-19 is a good thing as it will make us all face the possibility of our own mortality and perhaps rethink our priorities.



Good for you Andrew. I hope you’re right with your final sentence but I think we will return to business as usual once this is all over.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 26 Mar 2020 19:59

John Madejski's Wallet Anyone care to place a bet that the actual death rate for the total population falls in the UK this year?

I think it will

I think you’re right. I’d nonetheless be willing to place the bet if we did it for charity, but I think the chances of us remembering to check are pretty long.

Also think some of the impacts, both positive and negative, won’t be felt for a long time. I’m back on the chocolate but my brother is off the booze. The air quality is probably up but so is social isolation.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 20:28

Emmer Green Royal
Snowball https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Coronavirus Cases:
494,695
Deaths:
22,290------------16%
Recovered:
119,785 ----------84%
CASES WHICH HAVE HAD AN OUTCOME 142,075
119,785 (84%) Recovered / Discharged
22,290 (16%) Deaths

Perhaps governments and journalists are deliberately not pointing at this awful stat.

I don't see how I can be mis-reading this, but I hope I am.


All coronvirus stats are very misleading because no-one has any idea how many cases there actually are. Most countries, including the UK, are doing very little testing.

Until you have tested a very large random sample (and not just people who turn up at hospital with a cough) you have no idea what the mortality rate really is.

According to the organisation European Monitoring of Excess Mortality for Public Health Action (who knew that such an organisation existed?) "Pooled estimates of all-cause mortality show normal expected levels of mortality in the participating countries." https://www.euromomo.eu


Thanks Emmer

I know that, but there are solid stats. Basically, if you go to hospital and are admitted, overall you have a 1 in 6 chance of dying.

In Italy it's almost 50-50. There is nothing at all wrong with these stats (unpleasant tho' they are). All that would be wrong is if we just imagined they represented the whole population's stats (which of course they don't). I think it will be at least 10:1 eventually, hopefully it will be 20:1, or (your God willing) 100:1

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 26 Mar 2020 20:36

andrew1957
windermereROYAL Why don`t people fecking listen? I`ve ventured out once in the last week, and that was only to do some shopping, but looking around it`s the `it can`t happen to me` ideology.
Get a grip you fecking melts, this is as serious as anything any of us will ever face in our entires lives.


I think I find it a bit hard to get worked up about as I was told in May 2017 that I had 3-6 months to live from a serious cancer. I was offered a 7 hour life changing op and two months in hospital to recover which "might" give me some extra time. I decided against having this treatment and that I would live out what was left of my life as well as I could and die a natural death. However, I did take steps to improve my diet and took probiotic and vitamin C daily and the cancer slowly healed and went completely within 6 months. The NHS has no explanation. I never even took one day off work. I doubt anyone will believe me but I have all the letters from the oncologist to prove it.

Once you have faced and accepted your own death it puts everything into perspective and it has made me realise that people in the rich western countries have too great a sense of entitlement and unrealistic expectations about what the health services can achieve. Perhaps COVID-19 is a good thing as it will make us all face the possibility of our own mortality and perhaps rethink our priorities.


Brilliant News!

I would like to think your last para was accurate. It might be for a year or two but I suspect we would need 5 Million UK deaths to genuinely change people permanently (no joke intended)


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 27 Mar 2020 08:16

Each Country has a Deaths per Million of Population Statistic.

This is a close to actual statistic, nothing to do with how many people are tested. It's simply the count of confirmed Covid-19 Deaths divided by the country's population. The UK is currently 8.53 deaths per million. Italy's is 135.82, almost 16 times higher (15.92).

This is NOT because Italy's care-system is terrible v the NHS is brilliant. It's because as countries' cases, patients, deaths "mature" the deaths per million rise. Obviously, for all intents and purposes the population is fixed but deaths rise. Countries that started their epidemic earlier will have higher deaths-per-million.

I have watched this number rise from near-zero for eight countries and China stands out as a quite ridiculous set of figures. Cases they are the lowest at 57 pm, the UK 172, USA 259, Germany 524, whereas Luxembourg is 2,321, Switzerland 1,365, Italy 1,333, Spain 1,236

We should expect the UK to eventually pass through 1,000 at the very least.

This table outlines UK casualties if the eventual deaths-per-million were only at the level of these countries (the level they are at today)

135.82 9,208 Italy
093.37 6,330 Spain
022.11 1,499 Switzerland
014.44 0,979 Luxembourg
008.53 0,578 UK
003.94 0,267 USA
003.19 0,216 Germany
002.29 0,155 China

That is, as we mature, as we catch up to Italy's Day-Number (they started earlier) we, could be looking at a number approaching 10,000 dead. That is not the final total. We don't expect all or any countries to simply stop having deaths any time soon. It would be nothing short of a miracle if world and country totals ended up at only twice today's figures.

The first death in the UK was March 5th, Italy's was Feb 21st. In terms of deaths we are roughly 13 days behind Italy.

In terms of cases, Italy reached 10,000 cases March 10th, we passed through 10,000 March 26th. (We lag by 16 days).

If we presume the disease spreads are approximately the same, we would reach Italy's March 26th numbers times 112% (= 9,208) about 14 days from yesterday (April 9th).

What About the Lockdown?

Italy's 11-town lockdown (50,000 people) began February 21st/22nd. The 11 town area was totally quarantined with road-blocks etc.

16 Million people in the North of Italy went into Lockdown March 8th. The lockdown became nationwide March 10th.

The cumulative death total that day was under 700. The total deaths on March 18th were still under 3,000. It is worth noting that there have been 5,300 deaths SINCE then. This is day 17 of total lockdown in Italy. Yesterday 712 died. As yet the lockdown has not slowed the spread significantly, but may, just MAY have started flattening the curve. It's too early to be certain.

Deaths per Day, Italy

196 11-Mar
189 12-Mar
250 13-Mar
175 14-Mar
367 15-Mar
350 16-Mar
345 17-Mar
475 18-Mar
427 19-Mar
627 20-Mar
793 21-Mar
650 22-Mar
602 23-Mar
743 24-Mar (Day 14 of Total Lockdown)
683 25-Mar Day 15
712 26-Mar Day 16

Daily fluctuations, inconsistent reporting times may alter the numbers slightly. A seven day moving average reveals:

17-Mar 267 (Average daily deaths 11th-17th)
18-Mar 307 (12-18th)
19-Mar 341
20-Mar 395
21-Mar 483
22-Mar 524
23-Mar 560
24-Mar 617
25-Mar 646
26-Mar 687 (Average daily deaths 20th-26th inclusive)

The 7-Day Moving Average is still rising.


The UK

Pubs, Cafes, restaurants in the UK were still open Friday March 20th. The UK lock-down more or less started March 21st and took a few days to clear the streets. Again, we are 10-13 days behind Italy

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 27 Mar 2020 08:39

I've been slagging off China's figures but HUBEI's (Includes Wuhan) figures are not so outlying

Population 58,500,00
Cases = 67,801 (1,159 per million, a little less than Spain)
Deaths = 3,169 (54 per million, 3rd highest, Spain in 2nd is 93 pm)

Still serious 1,020. This is a huge percentage at 29.7% of active cases. Spain is worst outside China at 6.8% serious) Sounds like either somehow, people seriously ill are hanging on for 2-3 months (Yeah, right) or most of these are already dead and new-death figures are being trickled out for political reasons.

If the dead are really 4,000+ that would put China at 68 deaths per million (Italy 136, Spain 93, Switzerland 22)

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Hendo
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 27 Mar 2020 09:12

https://twitter.com/ReadingFC/status/1243462766058323968

Royals commit to 1,000 free tickets to for NHS workers when football resumes

#ReadingFC follow
@OfficialBHAFC's lead to become the first @EFL club to commit to the gesture started on the south coast...

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Uke
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 27 Mar 2020 10:27

Hendo https://twitter.com/ReadingFC/status/1243462766058323968

Royals commit to 1,000 free tickets to for NHS workers when football resumes

#ReadingFC follow
@OfficialBHAFC's lead to become the first @EFL club to commit to the gesture started on the south coast...


‪Great idea, but what about those who work in care homes as nurses and careers?

I’m sure they’ve will have done more hands on work than the appointments clerks at outpatients.

COVID-19 is going to go through care homes like a tsunami.‬

Nothing for them...


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Hendo
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 27 Mar 2020 10:31

Uke
Hendo https://twitter.com/ReadingFC/status/1243462766058323968

Royals commit to 1,000 free tickets to for NHS workers when football resumes

#ReadingFC follow
@OfficialBHAFC's lead to become the first @EFL club to commit to the gesture started on the south coast...


‪Great idea, but what about those who work in care homes as nurses and careers?

I’m sure they’ve will have done more hands on work than the appointments clerks at outpatients.

COVID-19 is going to go through care homes like a tsunami.‬

Nothing for them...


Don't care homes come under NHS purview? Also it says that the details haven't been confirmed yet, so no need to get overly cynical, just yet :wink:

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Uke
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 27 Mar 2020 10:44

Hendo
Uke


‪Great idea, but what about those who work in care homes as nurses and careers?

I’m sure they’ve will have done more hands on work than the appointments clerks at outpatients.

COVID-19 is going to go through care homes like a tsunami.‬

Nothing for them...


Don't care homes come under NHS purview? Also it says that the details haven't been confirmed yet, so no need to get overly cynical, just yet :wink:


Nope, they are mainly private providers with resident care funded by DHSC. The same goes for hospices. It’s unlikely that residents will be given a ‘good’ bed in an overworked NHS unit and will therefore be allowed a “natural death”.

Mrs Uke is a sister in a nursing care home 50 residents a third with dementia, and is shitting bricks about what is coming. These are long term patients so she knows them, their families etc.

It’s also staffed by more of those “unskilled” types who suddenly people seem to realise have actually kept our worlds going...

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by muirinho » 27 Mar 2020 10:51

Snowball I've been slagging off China's figures but HUBEI's (Includes Wuhan) figures are not so outlying

Population 58,500,00
Cases = 67,801 (1,159 per million, a little less than Spain)
Deaths = 3,169 (54 per million, 3rd highest, Spain in 2nd is 93 pm)

Still serious 1,020. This is a huge percentage at 29.7% of active cases. Spain is worst outside China at 6.8% serious) Sounds like either somehow, people seriously ill are hanging on for 2-3 months (Yeah, right) or most of these are already dead and new-death figures are being trickled out for political reasons.

If the dead are really 4,000+ that would put China at 68 deaths per million (Italy 136, Spain 93, Switzerland 22)


From what I've read, if you go on to a ventilator, if you get better enough to come off it in under 7 days, you'll be ok, but any longer than that, and there's not much hope of any improvement. I saw some comments about patients being on a ventilator for 20-30 days. So maybe it almost becomes a question of whether they switch off the ventilator because they've given up on you and it's needed for another patient. Maybe if there isn't a shortage of ventilators, i.e., they have reduced the number of patients coming into ICU needing one, they'll leave you on it for a while longer.

So it could be a combination of letting death figures trickle out, and letting patients die more gradually.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 27 Mar 2020 10:53

muirinho
Snowball I've been slagging off China's figures but HUBEI's (Includes Wuhan) figures are not so outlying

Population 58,500,00
Cases = 67,801 (1,159 per million, a little less than Spain)
Deaths = 3,169 (54 per million, 3rd highest, Spain in 2nd is 93 pm)

Still serious 1,020. This is a huge percentage at 29.7% of active cases. Spain is worst outside China at 6.8% serious) Sounds like either somehow, people seriously ill are hanging on for 2-3 months (Yeah, right) or most of these are already dead and new-death figures are being trickled out for political reasons.

If the dead are really 4,000+ that would put China at 68 deaths per million (Italy 136, Spain 93, Switzerland 22)


From what I've read, if you go on to a ventilator, if you get better enough to come off it in under 7 days, you'll be ok, but any longer than that, and there's not much hope of any improvement. I saw some comments about patients being on a ventilator for 20-30 days. So maybe it almost becomes a question of whether they switch off the ventilator because they've given up on you and it's needed for another patient. Maybe if there isn't a shortage of ventilators, i.e., they have reduced the number of patients coming into ICU needing one, they'll leave you on it for a while longer.

So it could be a combination of letting death figures trickle out, and letting patients die more gradually.


I shall give my ventilator to Ian Royal


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by muirinho » 27 Mar 2020 10:54

Uke
Hendo https://twitter.com/ReadingFC/status/1243462766058323968

Royals commit to 1,000 free tickets to for NHS workers when football resumes

#ReadingFC follow
@OfficialBHAFC's lead to become the first @EFL club to commit to the gesture started on the south coast...


‪Great idea, but what about those who work in care homes as nurses and careers?

I’m sure they’ve will have done more hands on work than the appointments clerks at outpatients.

COVID-19 is going to go through care homes like a tsunami.‬

Nothing for them...


Quite probably they haven't thought about it, or assumed that care homes were run by the NHS. Maybe worth dropping an email to the club suggesting that people working in care homes are included.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 27 Mar 2020 10:56

Uke

Mrs Uke is a sister in a nursing care home 50 residents a third with dementia, and is shitting bricks about what is coming. These are long term patients so she knows them, their families etc.

It’s also staffed by more of those “unskilled” types who suddenly people seem to realise have actually kept our worlds going...


Yes. I worry about the staff in supermarkets, Tesco etc. They are out there travelling to work, sitting at tills for 8-10 hours, meeting hundreds of people a day. tesco have been recruiting heavily because they have so man staff on 14-day quarantines

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Uke
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 27 Mar 2020 10:58

Snowball
Uke

Mrs Uke is a sister in a nursing care home 50 residents a third with dementia, and is shitting bricks about what is coming. These are long term patients so she knows them, their families etc.

It’s also staffed by more of those “unskilled” types who suddenly people seem to realise have actually kept our worlds going...


Yes. I worry about the staff in supermarkets, Tesco etc. They are out there travelling to work, sitting at tills for 8-10 hours, meeting hundreds of people a day. tesco have been recruiting heavily because they have so man staff on 14-day quarantines


But haven’t got back to applicants either...

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 27 Mar 2020 11:06

Uke
Snowball
Uke

Mrs Uke is a sister in a nursing care home 50 residents a third with dementia, and is shitting bricks about what is coming. These are long term patients so she knows them, their families etc.

It’s also staffed by more of those “unskilled” types who suddenly people seem to realise have actually kept our worlds going...


Yes. I worry about the staff in supermarkets, Tesco etc. They are out there travelling to work, sitting at tills for 8-10 hours, meeting hundreds of people a day. tesco have been recruiting heavily because they have so man staff on 14-day quarantines


But haven’t got back to applicants either...


Yep. My two 17 year old refugees applied. The guy handling it looked new and was utterly useless

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 27 Mar 2020 11:09

Spain

3,166 Serious Cases announced Thursday
9,357 Serious Cases announced this morning 19% of Active Cases

That is almost a three-fold increase in a day and only Hubei has a higher "critical" percentage

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Uke
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 27 Mar 2020 11:26

Snowball
Uke
Snowball
Yes. I worry about the staff in supermarkets, Tesco etc. They are out there travelling to work, sitting at tills for 8-10 hours, meeting hundreds of people a day. tesco have been recruiting heavily because they have so man staff on 14-day quarantines


But haven’t got back to applicants either...


Yep. My two 17 year old refugees applied. The guy handling it looked new and was utterly useless


Staff now kicking heels at work in our local one

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Hendo
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Hendo » 27 Mar 2020 11:27

Boris has it.

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