Coronavirus outbreak

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windermereROYAL
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 30 Mar 2020 10:03

It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 10:42

windermereROYAL It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.


Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day

windermereROYAL
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 30 Mar 2020 10:49

Snowball
windermereROYAL It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.


Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day


I`m the same, can`t stop eating. I too live in a flat, luckily I have an exersise bike, do a couple of of good workouts every day. but for the life of me i can`t imagine sitting in here day after day with 30c temperatures outside

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 11:12

windermereROYAL
Snowball
windermereROYAL It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.


Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day


I`m the same, can`t stop eating. I too live in a flat, luckily I have an exersise bike, do a couple of of good workouts every day. but for the life of me i can't imagine sitting in here day after day with 30c temperatures outside


I've gone on a diet, no messing, binned the wine, potatoes, bread, and I'm breaking the reading/writing up with sit-ups and press-ups. I'm still weak as a kitten, though, and my joints STILL hurt. Not sure if that is from being ill or lack of exercise but the idea of actually RUNNING, that's a laugh. I seriously think if the flat caught on fire, I would gently walk downstairs.

As for summer heat - DON'T!! I live in a second floor flat and it's like a sauna in the summer, even if I open every window, have fans on, slump around in a pair of shorts...

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Lower West
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Lower West » 30 Mar 2020 15:26

Snowball
windermereROYAL It`s all pretty easy for people to follow restrictions now, just a week in, weather nice but not so warm, but it`s obvious some will get bored with it, and what happens when the warm weather arrives?
It was being muted yesterday this could last for up to 6 months, that takes us back into the winter again, it`s difficult to see the whole population sitting on their hands during a summer heatwave.


Agreed. I was virtually locked down from 6th, officially from 11:00 on the 8th, then, as soon as the 14 days was done we were on the official nationwide lock-down. Prior to that (and being unwell) I would walk up to ten miles a day, or run three and do some gym-work. My flat is the size of a size-six shoebox, no room to exercise properly, and it's really starting to feel oppressive.

I've been eating LOADS more, presumably through boredom, and I was pouring wine down my throat on any pretext. I've been gaining half a pound a day and yesterday I emptied the last two bottles of red down the sink. If this is what it's like after 3+ weeks, I cannot imagine 3 months, let alone six.

I can imagine suicides rising, various sorts of mental illnesses increasing, more domestic violence. And without sunshine will we all get rickets?

Mind you, I'm reading like never before, over a book a day


Go for two good walks a day. What ever the weather.


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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 30 Mar 2020 17:41

Feel fortunate to live in a house with a garden, an empty woods and field at the end of the road and a gym in garage. Isn't actually too bad so far and I've been in lockdown/WFH for over a month now.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 30 Mar 2020 19:01

UK government underestimating cases by 35-160 times: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 30 Mar 2020 19:11

SCIAG UK government underestimating cases by 35-160 times: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf


That's less than I was thinking tbf.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 19:20

SCIAG UK government underestimating cases by 35-160 times: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf


(a) We aren't as far down the line. ATM our infection rate (according to the paper) is not much more than a quarter of Italy's

(b) the paper says their figures could still be wildly out


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 19:22

Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 30 Mar 2020 19:26

Snowball Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.


I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 19:30

The paper predicts 2.7% of the population has actually been infected (mid of the range)

That is 1,830,420, almost two million people

Current deaths are 1,408 plus about 2,800 due in the next 14 days (4,208) from those already infected

At that rate should the whole of the population become infected that would be 155,852 Dead

At the 60% "herd immunity" percentage that would mean 93,511 dead presuming the NHS doesn't collapse

Am I reading this wrong?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 19:32

Zip
Snowball Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.


I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.



Yes, I'd heard that some people "with little/no hope" were dying at home or in OAP's Homes

Certainly been happening in Spain


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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 30 Mar 2020 20:36

Snowball The paper predicts 2.7% of the population has actually been infected (mid of the range)

That is 1,830,420, almost two million people

Current deaths are 1,408 plus about 2,800 due in the next 14 days (4,208) from those already infected

At that rate should the whole of the population become infected that would be 155,852 Dead

At the 60% "herd immunity" percentage that would mean 93,511 dead presuming the NHS doesn't collapse

Am I reading this wrong?


With those figures the death rate is very low - 0.2% if 4208, 0.07% currently.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 22:17

NEW CASES Last 5 days

63,408
63,489
68,154
57,773
61,563


More (some) evidence of flattening, but 2-3 weeks of 50,000+ before an actual decline would be about a million cases, and ATM the deaths/got better ratio has risen to 18.4%, meaning there are a total of 142,813 deaths in the pipe based on cumulative cases (excluding new cases and presuming no health-service collapses). The extra million cases would mean a further 184,000 deaths worldwide, totalling 326,813 Dead



BTW the modelling predicted 770-790,000 at midnight tonight and he number was 781,979 pretty much right in the middle.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Lower West » 31 Mar 2020 00:21

Peak demand in hospital is forecast in 1-2 weeks.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Lower West » 31 Mar 2020 00:22

Zip
Snowball Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.


I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.


Same as France.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 31 Mar 2020 08:29

Lower West Peak demand in hospital is forecast in 1-2 weeks.


Surely it's 2+ weeks? The disease "takes two weeks" but some linger into later weeks, and the new cases at at their highest these last few days.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by LUX » 31 Mar 2020 14:18

Lower West
Zip
Snowball Did people catch the quiet comment that the Govt is going to publish a weekly number of people dying of Covid-19 OUTSIDE hospitals? It's not clear whether those deaths (Old people's homes etc) are included in the figures.


I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.


Same as France.


yep.

More die in these homes than in hospital ftl.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 31 Mar 2020 14:19

LUX
Lower West
Zip
I’ve just been asking about this on AE. It seems deaths are measured against hospital figures only at the moment.


Same as France.


yep.

More die in these homes than in hospital ftl.


Was on the phone to my colleague from France - she corroborated this unprompted and before I read this... :shock:

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