Coronavirus outbreak

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Cape Town Royal
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Cape Town Royal » 03 Apr 2020 16:59

Snowball
windermereROYAL Seeing reports of queues of traffic on Oxford road to get into B&M garden centre and the police are in attendance, words fail me sometimes. :shock:

It like a holidays for these brainless pricks. Im almost dreading the warm weather.




Agree on the individual stupidity but why haven't the Govt/Local Authorities shut them down?

I went to get some fresh veg this morning, kept finding old people walking straight into my "6 feet" as if it was just any other Friday.[/quote

Same in Japan, I went to the supermarket and there were 4 old ladies inspecting loose cucumbers for the best one. Between them they must have picked up 50 looked at them and put the ones they did not want back. That was over about 2 minutes. Multiply that by the amount of time the shop is open and its scary to think how many potential Corona's touched them. We skipped the Cucumbers and I told my wife from now one we are only buying pre-packaged fruit and veg and to make sure we wash everything.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 03 Apr 2020 18:03

That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 18:39

windermereROYAL That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.



Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 03 Apr 2020 19:51

Snowball
windermereROYAL That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.



Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?


Doesn`t matter, the comment in itself was irresponsible . it will strike fear into the nurses on the front line.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 03 Apr 2020 21:30

Snowball
windermereROYAL That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.



Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?


They easily can be. Punters can get the exact same masks, i.e N95 masks or surgical masks that healthcare professionals will be.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 03 Apr 2020 22:49

NEW CASES Last 9 days


63,408 - - - 2,882 Deaths
63,489 - - - 3,197 Deaths
68,154 - - - 3,590 Deaths
57,773 - - - 3,063 Deaths
61,563 - - - 3,698 Deaths
73,028 - - - 4,463 Deaths
78,571 - - - 4,785 Deaths
78,911 - - - 6,033 Deaths **
83,642 - - - 5,890 Deaths


** (included a one-off extra 884 deaths, France)

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Nameless » 04 Apr 2020 07:29

windermereROYAL
Snowball
windermereROYAL That prick on the daily news conference saying masks give you no protection, that will be very comforting to all the NHS staff that wear them.



Dumb question but are the masks used hospitals the same as the masks used by punters in the street?


Doesn`t matter, the comment in itself was irresponsible . it will strike fear into the nurses on the front line.


Don’t be daft.
The reasons why the masks are not seen as essential for the general public are clear. It’s not so much about the mask themselves, it’s about how they are used. Health staff knowhow to take them on and off and dispose of them, they know how often to change them, they know what protection they offer so don’t assume they don’t need to do all the other stuff.
They also won’t be getting their advice from people off the TV, they will trust their clinical bosses.
Would you rather the guy had said ‘yep, wear a mask and you’ll be fine’ ? Immediate panic buying (and every mask in the hands of someone who isn’t an essential wearer is one less for a nurse or care worker) , and a drop in social distancing and hand washing as people assume the mask solves all problems.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 08:24

Don't know if there has been a computer glitch in the data collection for both the John Hopkins site and WorldoMeter but

The rise in new cases from midnight to 0600/0700 is usually quite low,

4,202
1,688
3,000
1,688
2,969
2,973
3,324
5,031
3,885
4,205
1,259

about 3,100 overnight average

but this morning 22,115
which is stratospherically different.


EDIT = 22791 at 08:20 What's going on?

It may be that all countries overnight decided to add in Nursing Home and Home deaths, but if not, WTF?




EDIT

There IS something weird happening

The WorldoMeter spreadsheet shows 1,661 extra cases since 00:00 GMT 1,118,304 Total Cases = +1,661

but the difference between last night's close (1,096,130) and this morning's total (1,118,202) is that 22,072

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 08:47

Found it?


France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously.

On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

That explains why France jumped up the rankings overnight.


EDIT: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Take a look at their graph for new daily cases


We can only wonder what the other countries are doing with Nursing Home and "at home" deaths. That is (for France) 1,416 "extra" deaths out of a total of 6,507. 1,416 extra deaths on an original total of 5,091 is a hike of 27.81%

If all countries are/were not reporting non-hospital we could be under-reporting total deaths by 20-28%

at 25% that would be 279,730 so far not-counted deaths
Last edited by Snowball on 04 Apr 2020 09:00, edited 2 times in total.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 04 Apr 2020 08:58

Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 09:08

Linden Jones' Tash Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak


I'm sure you're right. The way China is so bucking the trend is particularly suss.

I didn't know this until this morning but on the WorldoMeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries you can click on individual countries and see analyses (hence I could see the sudden hike in "New Cases and "Deaths" for France

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

USA: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also, at the bottom of the home page = https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries there are a string of news reports from various countries (with sources quoted)

Kuwait had its first death, an Indian man who appeared to be recovering well, and then "suddenly deteriorated". I remember reading about this pattern a few weeks ago. The report was saying there's almost a life-or-death moment at 14 Days. Patients, even when improving noticeably can abruptly "fall off a cliff". I think the term is "sudden collapse"

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Linden Jones' Tash » 04 Apr 2020 09:29

Snowball
Linden Jones' Tash Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak


I'm sure you're right. The way China is so bucking the trend is particularly suss.

I didn't know this until this morning but on the WorldoMeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries you can click on individual countries and see analyses (hence I could see the sudden hike in "New Cases and "Deaths" for France

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

USA: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also, at the bottom of the home page = https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries there are a string of news reports from various countries (with sources quoted)

Kuwait had its first death, an Indian man who appeared to be recovering well, and then "suddenly deteriorated". I remember reading about this pattern a few weeks ago. The report was saying there's almost a life-or-death moment at 14 Days. Patients, even when improving noticeably can abruptly "fall off a cliff". I think the term is "sudden collapse"



Yes, I use this source to compare countries, I did the Italy - 14 days thing so check how we were tracking til it became obvious and then I found the FT data journalist who tweets daily charts.

UK is tracking above Italy now

US is a whole different ball game...

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Franchise FC » 04 Apr 2020 09:50

Linden Jones' Tash
Snowball
Linden Jones' Tash Coding conventions and under-reporting, whether politically driven or not are rife.

With the rise of authoritarian regimes and their use of 'fake news' and undermining legitimate institutions, it's going to get harder to find robust information.

Modelling based on quality assumptions is probably as good as it gets

I saw one source questioning the ONS general mortality data for recent time periods even before the outbreak


I'm sure you're right. The way China is so bucking the trend is particularly suss.

I didn't know this until this morning but on the WorldoMeter site https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries you can click on individual countries and see analyses (hence I could see the sudden hike in "New Cases and "Deaths" for France

France: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/

UK: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

USA: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Also, at the bottom of the home page = https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries there are a string of news reports from various countries (with sources quoted)

Kuwait had its first death, an Indian man who appeared to be recovering well, and then "suddenly deteriorated". I remember reading about this pattern a few weeks ago. The report was saying there's almost a life-or-death moment at 14 Days. Patients, even when improving noticeably can abruptly "fall off a cliff". I think the term is "sudden collapse"



Yes, I use this source to compare countries, I did the Italy - 14 days thing so check how we were tracking til it became obvious and then I found the FT data journalist who tweets daily charts.

UK is tracking above Italy now

US is a whole different ball game...

US are clearly top of the table, and I think they have a game in hand.
Italy’s goal difference is exceptional though


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 10:04

Franchise FC
US are clearly top of the table, and I think they have a game in hand.
Italy’s goal difference is exceptional though



The US is so ridiculous it almost defies belief (cliche alert) but yesterday's Trumpism, "The CDC say wear masks, ADVISE you to wear masks, but ME, nah, I'm not wearing a oxf*rd mask!"


He probably killed an extra 50,000 with that ludicrous me-me-me rant.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 11:03

The Unknown Infected Rate
Cannot be higher than 391:1


Spain has 119,827 Confirmed Cases in a country of 46,750,756 people.

That is Confirmed Cases are 1 now in every 392 people. This means that the hidden infection rate (ie not Officially Confirmed) would be 391:1 IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN SPAIN WAS ALREADY INFECTED.

This, then, for Spain, means that the maximum POSSIBLE multiplier is 391. That is the maximum possible answer to the question "How many people have got the virus (but unconfirmed) for every person who HAS been confirmed?"

Unless you believe that every person in Spain is already infected, then clearly the confirmed/unknown ratio HAS TO BE significantly lower than 392.


I did a calculation yesterday in a different way (before yesterday's totals) which maxed the UK at 391. I looked at the total tests and the percentage positive versus percentage negative. That 391figure is way, WAY higher than the eventual number will be, unless you wish to argue that every single human being in the UK already has the virus.

The calculation was simple. I thought, "Well we are testing highly-likely cases. Cases that are dead, dying, seriously ill, very ill, showing some symptoms, or have returned from a danger area, or have had close contact with a known case. This is clearly not a random sample. It's going to get a higher percentage of positives than a survey, say, of every single person in Reading.

The total tested (people with a good chance of being positive) were 173,784 and 38,168 (21.96%) of these were found to be positive.

It beggars belief to imagine this ratio would be the same ratio in the total UK population but what if it was?

What if, yesterday the number of people infected was 14,934,770 (68 Million * 21.96%)? That gives a MAXIMUM, a stupidly OTT number of 391... compared to Spain's 392

If you think that ALREADY a quarter of the UK and a quarter of Spain is infected. (Surely a massive over-statement?) then, even at that bonkers figure, the Confirmed: Missed Ratio would be 1:98

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 04 Apr 2020 11:17

Snowball Found it?


France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously.

On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

That explains why France jumped up the rankings overnight.


EDIT: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Take a look at their graph for new daily cases


We can only wonder what the other countries are doing with Nursing Home and "at home" deaths. That is (for France) 1,416 "extra" deaths out of a total of 6,507. 1,416 extra deaths on an original total of 5,091 is a hike of 27.81%

If all countries are/were not reporting non-hospital we could be under-reporting total deaths by 20-28%

at 25% that would be 279,730 so far not-counted deaths


Are we including at home deaths/nursing home figures in our totals?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 11:23

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Found it?


France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously.

On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

That explains why France jumped up the rankings overnight.


EDIT: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Take a look at their graph for new daily cases


We can only wonder what the other countries are doing with Nursing Home and "at home" deaths. That is (for France) 1,416 "extra" deaths out of a total of 6,507. 1,416 extra deaths on an original total of 5,091 is a hike of 27.81%

If all countries are/were not reporting non-hospital we could be under-reporting total deaths by 20-28%

at 25% that would be 279,730 so far not-counted deaths


Are we including at home deaths/nursing home figures in our totals?


They are a bit vague about it. Govt said something about them being harder/slower to collate and they would be "publishing a weekly figure" (or something like that). Does that mean we get a weekly extra-high number?

Why aren't journalists asking the obvious questions?

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Jagermesiter1871
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 04 Apr 2020 11:26

Snowball
Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Found it?


France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously.

On April 2, it had reported 884 additional deaths.

That explains why France jumped up the rankings overnight.


EDIT: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
Take a look at their graph for new daily cases


We can only wonder what the other countries are doing with Nursing Home and "at home" deaths. That is (for France) 1,416 "extra" deaths out of a total of 6,507. 1,416 extra deaths on an original total of 5,091 is a hike of 27.81%

If all countries are/were not reporting non-hospital we could be under-reporting total deaths by 20-28%

at 25% that would be 279,730 so far not-counted deaths


Are we including at home deaths/nursing home figures in our totals?


They are a bit vague about it. Govt said something about them being harder/slower to collate and they would be "publishing a weekly figure" (or something like that). Does that mean we get a weekly extra-high number?

Why aren't journalists asking the obvious questions?


Because they're journalists and they're all crap? Watching the daily COVID brief really rams it home how crap they are. How many different ways can you ask a pointless question that you know the Govs answer will be stay at, protect the NHS, save lives.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 04 Apr 2020 11:31

With today's Spain Numbers the absolute maximum possible Confirmed Cases : Actual Cases ratio has now dropped to 1:375

and will drop every day

EDIT: Today's UK Numbers means absolute max ratio now 1:369

windermereROYAL
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 04 Apr 2020 15:55

More than 10% mortality rate now, hold on to your hats folks.

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