Rival Watch

[Loafer]

Wet blankets.

Pot
Kettle

[windermereROYAL]

Monday is QPRs final chance of making a final push for the play-offs, fail to win and their season is over.

[Snowflake Royal]

Reading: DWDWLW = 1.8 ppg - puts us on ~47 come season end
Derby: LLDWLW = 1.2 ppg - ~ 36
Peterborough: LWLDDW = 1.3 ppg - ~ 36
Barnsley: DWLDLD = 1.0 ppg - ~ 36

So we need to basically go from near promotion form in recent games, to way worse than relegation form. At the same time as one of the bottom three go from relegation / lower mid-table form in recent games to record breaking form.

Ain't going to happen.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Has a side at the bottom ever made up 9 points with 4 games remaining or 10 points with 5 games remaining?

[TiagoIlori]

Burton won three in a row to take it to the final day in 17/18. They were seriously unlucky to end up going down the way they did on the final day too. Everything that could’ve gone wrong went wrong. The gap was seven points long though.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Lots on Twitter around how we should be worried by Derby after their win last night.

Even if you add back the 21 points their only at Cardiff's level so not exactly top half, they've also had no pressure all season either due to the points deduction and have never looked like getting close to staying up.

Got a feeling Fulham want promotion in front of their own fans too...

[windermereROYAL]

Lots on Twitter around how we should be worried by Derby after their win last night.

Even if you add back the 21 points their only at Cardiff's level so not exactly top half, they've also had no pressure all season either due to the points deduction and have never looked like getting close to staying up.

Got a feeling Fulham want promotion in front of their own fans too...

Oh twitter, the place where the spotty teenagers congregate to give their worthless opinions.
Listen, if we get 4 more points it won`t matter if super Derby win each of their last 4 games 6-0. they will be down.

[From Despair To Where?]

Has a side at the bottom ever made up 9 points with 4 games remaining or 10 points with 5 games remaining?

I know in Serie A 2000-01, Verona were 9 points away from safety with 3 games to play, won their final 3 games, including away at Lazio. Reggina, the team 9 points ahead of them lost their last 3. Lecce, Reggina and Verona were tied on points. Lecce stayed up courtesy of having the best head to head record and Verona went into a 2 legged relegation playoff with Reggina. They stayed up on away goals courtesy of an 86th minute goal in the 2nd leg.

Had it been decided on goal difference, they would have gone down.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure there was a period in the 90s where the Football League used goals scored instead of goal difference.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Reading: DWDWLW = 1.8 ppg - puts us on ~47 come season end
Derby: LLDWLW = 1.2 ppg - ~ 36
Peterborough: LWLDDW = 1.3 ppg - ~ 36
Barnsley: DWLDLD = 1.0 ppg - ~ 36

So we need to basically go from near promotion form in recent games, to way worse than relegation form. At the same time as one of the bottom three go from relegation / lower mid-table form in recent games to record breaking form.

Ain't going to happen.

I don't really like this statistic really, because it becomes more and more irrelevant at the end of the season for teams at the bottom, especially if teams have the opportunity to bridge the gap. Derby have 4 very winnable fixtures, nothing this season suggests they will win all 4 (and 5 on the trot) and yes, it is very likely not to happen, but if they turn QPR over on Monday and we lose, that gives them even more hope for the next game. None of the 3 below us have anything to lose now and they will play that way, especially if we give them the opportunity to gain on us as well.

Now, I don't think it will happen, I can't see any of them doing enough to get out of it, but the longer we don't get the job done, the more difficult we will make it for ourselves and the more belief it gives those teams below us.

I'm saying it as if we are being caught up, we aren't, but we cannot really afford to drop too many points in our next couple, especially if someone else around us can gain on us. It's an all or nothing time of the season, the pressure is different for teams and so is the mindset for teams now as well.

[The Royal Forester]

Has a side at the bottom ever made up 9 points with 4 games remaining or 10 points with 5 games remaining?

I know in Serie A 2000-01, Verona were 9 points away from safety with 3 games to play, won their final 3 games, including away at Lazio. Reggina, the team 9 points ahead of them lost their last 3. Lecce, Reggina and Verona were tied on points. Lecce stayed up courtesy of having the best head to head record and Verona went into a 2 legged relegation playoff with Reggina. They stayed up on away goals courtesy of an 86th minute goal in the 2nd leg.

Had it been decided on goal difference, they would have gone down.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm sure there was a period in the 90s where the Football League used goals scored instead of goal difference.

I seem to remember goals scored were the deciding factor, but I would have thought it was earlier than the 90's. Probably it followed on from when goal average was ditched, whenever that was. If my memory serves me correctly, goals scored only lasted a few seasons before being replaced by goal difference..

[From Despair To Where?]

I'm pretty sure it was trialled again the 90's for a couple of seasons to encourage more attacking football.

<EDIT> Wikipedia is my friend

(N.B. in 1996–97 Wigan Athletic and Fulham finished level on 87 points at the top of the Third Division, but Wigan Athletic were awarded the championship on most goals scored, which was the first tie breaker in use in the Football League between 1992 and 1999, although Fulham had the greater goal difference. Coincidentally Brighton and Hove Albion avoided relegation from the same division on goals scored at the expense of Hereford United, although Hereford had the better goal difference. It reverted to the Goal Difference method from the start of the 1999–2000 season.

)

[Stranded]

Reading: DWDWLW = 1.8 ppg - puts us on ~47 come season end
Derby: LLDWLW = 1.2 ppg - ~ 36
Peterborough: LWLDDW = 1.3 ppg - ~ 36
Barnsley: DWLDLD = 1.0 ppg - ~ 36

So we need to basically go from near promotion form in recent games, to way worse than relegation form. At the same time as one of the bottom three go from relegation / lower mid-table form in recent games to record breaking form.

Ain't going to happen.

I don't really like this statistic really, because it becomes more and more irrelevant at the end of the season for teams at the bottom, especially if teams have the opportunity to bridge the gap. Derby have 4 very winnable fixtures, nothing this season suggests they will win all 4 (and 5 on the trot) and yes, it is very likely not to happen, but if they turn QPR over on Monday and we lose, that gives them even more hope for the next game. None of the 3 below us have anything to lose now and they will play that way, especially if we give them the opportunity to gain on us as well.

Now, I don't think it will happen, I can't see any of them doing enough to get out of it, but the longer we don't get the job done, the more difficult we will make it for ourselves and the more belief it gives those teams below us.

I'm saying it as if we are being caught up, we aren't, but we cannot really afford to drop too many points in our next couple, especially if someone else around us can gain on us. It's an all or nothing time of the season, the pressure is different for teams and so is the mindset for teams now as well.

But you are speaking like we are creeping towards the finish with teams breathing down our neck and building momentum instead of stretching a 2 point lead over the bottom 3 before Blackburn to a 9 point lead now.

In 5 games, we've increased the gap over Barnsley by 8, Derby by 5 and Peterborough by 5. In that time, all 3 of those picked up points. We got more but we didn't go 100%, we even lost 1.

To fcuk this up, we now need one of those sides to go 100% and we get nothing. I just don't buy it. If this relegation battle goes to the last day from here, we deserve to drop.

[Hound]

A point for us on Monday would be quite useful. Would take that

The have 3 games to nail the final win regardless of what Derby do

[Snowflake Royal]

Reading: DWDWLW = 1.8 ppg - puts us on ~47 come season end
Derby: LLDWLW = 1.2 ppg - ~ 36
Peterborough: LWLDDW = 1.3 ppg - ~ 36
Barnsley: DWLDLD = 1.0 ppg - ~ 36

So we need to basically go from near promotion form in recent games, to way worse than relegation form. At the same time as one of the bottom three go from relegation / lower mid-table form in recent games to record breaking form.

Ain't going to happen.

I don't really like this statistic really, because it becomes more and more irrelevant at the end of the season for teams at the bottom, especially if teams have the opportunity to bridge the gap. Derby have 4 very winnable fixtures, nothing this season suggests they will win all 4 (and 5 on the trot) and yes, it is very likely not to happen, but if they turn QPR over on Monday and we lose, that gives them even more hope for the next game. None of the 3 below us have anything to lose now and they will play that way, especially if we give them the opportunity to gain on us as well.

Now, I don't think it will happen, I can't see any of them doing enough to get out of it, but the longer we don't get the job done, the more difficult we will make it for ourselves and the more belief it gives those teams below us.

I'm saying it as if we are being caught up, we aren't, but we cannot really afford to drop too many points in our next couple, especially if someone else around us can gain on us. It's an all or nothing time of the season, the pressure is different for teams and so is the mindset for teams now as well.

There's absolutely no need to be concerned or talking about it.

IF Derby win the next two AND we lose them, then fair enough, it's worth talking about.

At the moment the chance of us gaining no more points and Derby winning 3 of their remaining games is so close to zero it may as well be zero.

You fannies have been worrying about them and Barnsley for weeks and they're further from catching us than ever.

When it's mathematically done you lot will be wringing your hands about Derby's points deduction being reduced or ours increased at this rate.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Lots on Twitter around how we should be worried by Derby after their win last night.

Even if you add back the 21 points their only at Cardiff's level so not exactly top half, they've also had no pressure all season either due to the points deduction and have never looked like getting close to staying up.

Got a feeling Fulham want promotion in front of their own fans too...

Oh twitter, the place where the spotty teenagers congregate to give their worthless opinions

so true

[SouthDownsRoyal]

I think it’s pretty standard when you are looking at your own team to assume worse case scenarios.

If I were not a Reading fan I would laugh at a Reading fan and say as if you won’t stay up but I remember on the 106 year when it was clear (before being mathematically certain) that we would go up I would analyse the league and fixtures thinking if X happens and Y happens, it’s perfectly normal, especially for Reading fans after the last four or five years.

I agree highly unlikely and I wouldn’t put any money on Derby, Barnsley or the posh catching us but also until it is mathematically certain I am never comfortable

[RoyalBlue]

I think it’s pretty standard when you are looking at your own team to assume worse case scenarios.

If I were not a Reading fan I would laugh at a Reading fan and say as if you won’t stay up but I remember on the 106 year when it was clear (before being mathematically certain) that we would go up I would analyse the league and fixtures thinking if X happens and Y happens, it’s perfectly normal, especially for Reading fans after the last four or five years.

I agree highly unlikely and I wouldn’t put any money on Derby, Barnsley or the posh catching us but also until it is mathematically certain I am never comfortable

What are odds are the bookies offering for anyone wanting to consider Judas bets?

[Stranded]

I think it’s pretty standard when you are looking at your own team to assume worse case scenarios.

If I were not a Reading fan I would laugh at a Reading fan and say as if you won’t stay up but I remember on the 106 year when it was clear (before being mathematically certain) that we would go up I would analyse the league and fixtures thinking if X happens and Y happens, it’s perfectly normal, especially for Reading fans after the last four or five years.

I agree highly unlikely and I wouldn’t put any money on Derby, Barnsley or the posh catching us but also until it is mathematically certain I am never comfortable

What are odds are the bookies offering for anyone wanting to consider Judas bets?

We're 16-1 to drop. So £20 will nearly cover your ST if you want one.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

I think it’s pretty standard when you are looking at your own team to assume worse case scenarios.

If I were not a Reading fan I would laugh at a Reading fan and say as if you won’t stay up but I remember on the 106 year when it was clear (before being mathematically certain) that we would go up I would analyse the league and fixtures thinking if X happens and Y happens, it’s perfectly normal, especially for Reading fans after the last four or five years.

I agree highly unlikely and I wouldn’t put any money on Derby, Barnsley or the posh catching us but also until it is mathematically certain I am never comfortable

What are odds are the bookies offering for anyone wanting to consider Judas bets?

We're 16-1 to drop. So £20 will nearly cover your ST if you want one.

And Derby are 1-100 to drop so a 99% probability

[Mr Angry]

Just a word about Fulham.

A few weeks ago, just after their run of games where they were banging in multiple goals per game (including the 7 against us), there was a discussion before an EFL game where the panel were discussing that this Fulham side were potentially the greatest ever at this level, and were going to beat every record going.

The maximum points that Fulham can now get is 98; we all know what we got in 05/06

They have lost 8 games this season, including their last 2 on the bounce; we all know we only lost 2 all season, and went 33 unbeaten.

They have still to score 4 goals to catch up our 99, though with 5 games left, this they should do.

They currently have a GD of 58; ours in 05/06 was 67, so they will struggle to beat that.

Therefore, the best that this Fulham side can achieve is being ranked the 8th best at this level, ahead of Pompey and Bolton on having a better GD.

(I got the stats from FourFourTwo, and in the article they wrote this about the 05/06 team..........

"The record-breaking Royals put together one hell of a squad in 2005/06. They popped the cork with corking signings from, uh, Cork, and before long Kevin Doyle and Shane Long were joined by countryman Stephen Hunt and club-record signing Leroy Lita.

With a canny manager in Steve Coppell and a squad boasting strength and depth from back to front, Reading took a flying dump on the Championship, losing just a single game after the opening day and scoring 99 goals in total. They put five past Millwall, Brighton, Derby and Cardiff – twice – while also keeping things tight, as Steve Sidwell and James Harper protected a reliable defence.

Reading earned themselves a first ever top-flight campaign, and did so in style. No wonder they still go on about it."