by Royal_jimmy » 02 Jan 2023 15:20
by Dirk Gently » 04 Jan 2023 12:31
by Stranded » 04 Jan 2023 12:46
Dirk Gently I absolutely get the empirical nature of the Magic Number and agree with how useful a measure it is.
But ... it assumes that all clubs can get maximum points from their remaining games which clearly isn't going to happen as they play each other (even if you just consider the bottom three clubs there's still the same issue), so good as it is as a measure there's always a slight margin of error where the calculated Magic Number is a bit less than the actual number of points required for safety - until right at the end of the season.
by Millsy » 04 Jan 2023 12:52
by Mr Angry » 04 Jan 2023 13:09
Millsy Can we do one for getting into the playoffs please?
That's the only direction I'm looking, thanks to Ince & Ince.
by Nameless » 04 Jan 2023 13:46
Mr Angry ...the most points attained by a team which has been relegated from the Championship since it was formed in 2004/05 is 54 (Peterborough, 2012/13 season), so it seems more reasonable to take 55 points as the target rather than 50 points.
by Snowflake Royal » 04 Jan 2023 16:31
StrandedDirk Gently I absolutely get the empirical nature of the Magic Number and agree with how useful a measure it is.
But ... it assumes that all clubs can get maximum points from their remaining games which clearly isn't going to happen as they play each other (even if you just consider the bottom three clubs there's still the same issue), so good as it is as a measure there's always a slight margin of error where the calculated Magic Number is a bit less than the actual number of points required for safety - until right at the end of the season.
Oh it is a very simplistic measure and that is it's beauty - I'm not a fan of using it this far out though - it is much more pertinant when you are dealing with a small number of direct competitors i.e. like the relegation battle last year.
To focus on the bottom 3 only - and giving all 3 of them a draw against each other - then the magic number is 49.
Hopefully this year, this becomes completely irrelevant and we are safe fairly early and mathematically safe with 4 or 5 games to go.
by Snowflake Royal » 14 Jan 2023 18:42
by Royal_jimmy » 15 Jan 2023 11:02
Snowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
by morganb » 15 Jan 2023 11:56
Snowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
by Royals and Racers » 15 Jan 2023 12:15
morganbSnowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks
(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)
by YorkshireRoyal99 » 15 Jan 2023 12:22
Royal_jimmySnowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
Teams at the bottom are starting to slow down so I think 50-51 points should be enough to stay up. 4 more wins and a couple of draws will do it.
by Snowflake Royal » 15 Jan 2023 12:35
morganbSnowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks
(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)
by Stranded » 16 Jan 2023 08:39
Royals and RacersmorganbSnowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks
(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)
Which if we get as many points in the last 19 games as the previous 27 gives us 63.
by Mr Angry » 16 Jan 2023 14:10
by LUX » 16 Jan 2023 14:18
by YorkshireRoyal99 » 16 Jan 2023 15:05
LUX the bottom three seem to be picking up points/ changing often. Hull were one of our bankers not long ago, Rotherham were before they beat Blackburn 4-0 on Saturday.
I do think we can pick up points pretty much anywhere, but I am not 100% secure yet.
by SCIAG » 16 Jan 2023 22:50
Snowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
by Snowflake Royal » 16 Jan 2023 22:59
SCIAGSnowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?
(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)
by paultheroyal » 17 Jan 2023 11:41
SCIAGSnowflake Royal Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49
So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?
(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)
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