The League of 4

[Platypuss]

Duffy (Kes), any further posts outside AE and you'll be banned.

Don't inflict him on AE!?

Scratch that, just seen the hoLOLocaust that is the What has pissed you off today? thread.

[strap]

Ignoring Bolton's tribulations for now, it seems the general perception is that Rotherham's run-in is particularly difficult and so may be our salvation unless we can start winning a few more games.

Sad to say the reality is quit different. If one takes the current league position of all the opponents Rotherham and ourselves have left, (so the last 11 fixtures of the season), the "average" current position of the teams Rotherham has to face is 8.7, whilst ours is 8.9 - so pretty much the same.

The only slight thing in our favour is that we have 6 homes games left and they have 5. We both have 3 home and 3 away games against teams in the top 8, and 2 home and 2 away against teams in the middle 8 in the league. We have one home game against a team in the bottom 8, (Wigan saturday), whilst they have 1 game against a team from the bottom 8, (QPR away, Wed 13th March).

Quite frankly we need to draw Millwall and Wigan into the fight. However, Wigan's "average" opponent lies in 12.3, and Millwall's in 11.4, so they both have "easier" run-ins.

Again we have a slight advantage over Wigan in that they have 6 of their 11 games left away. Millwall likewise. Hopefully Millwall's FAC exploits will have a detrimental effect on their league form, plus they will have a slightly more congested fixture list.

Clutching at straws? You bet I am!

[The Royal Forester]

Bolton V Millwall will go ahead. Ken Anderson has said he will financially support the club until someone else comes in and has instructed payroll to pay salaries and bills to ensure the game goes ahead.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Ignoring Bolton's tribulations for now, it seems the general perception is that Rotherham's run-in is particularly difficult and so may be our salvation unless we can start winning a few more games.

Sad to say the reality is quit different. If one takes the current league position of all the opponents Rotherham and ourselves have left, (so the last 11 fixtures of the season), the "average" current position of the teams Rotherham has to face is 8.7, whilst ours is 8.9 - so pretty much the same.

The only slight thing in our favour is that we have 6 homes games left and they have 5. We both have 3 home and 3 away games against teams in the top 8, and 2 home and 2 away against teams in the middle 8 in the league. We have one home game against a team in the bottom 8, (Wigan saturday), whilst they have 1 game against a team from the bottom 8, (QPR away, Wed 13th March).

Quite frankly we need to draw Millwall and Wigan into the fight. However, Wigan's "average" opponent lies in 12.3, and Millwall's in 11.4, so they both have "easier" run-ins.

Again we have a slight advantage over Wigan in that they have 6 of their 11 games left away. Millwall likewise. Hopefully Millwall's FAC exploits will have a detrimental effect on their league form, plus they will have a slightly more congested fixture list.

Clutching at straws? You bet I am!

I for one am actually quite relieved Sat is our last game against a direct rival, these are the real pressure games at this time of the season and we've come through okay with 5 points from 3 games, 2 away.

Its difficult to know how hard the run ins are right now as some sides that are now in contention for a play off place suddenly drop out and when you get near to the end of the season sides nailed in the play off positions start to rest key players which could work in our favour against West Brom and Boro.

[Brain Traysers]

I took the idea of the 'league of six' and, err ran quite far with it. I planned to do the analysis as a post on here but when it got towards 2000 words ( ) i thought I should pull it into a real blog post. Hopefully this is interesting pre-match reading for some.

For those who have read my long posts on here - its a very xG heavy one. If you hate that stuff, you should probably give it a miss.

TL:DR- The 6 split into 3 groups - the good, the bad and the lucky. Wigan and Millwall look pretty good by xG terms and arguably should be mid table. Expect them to pull away from us before the end of the season. Rotherham are also pretty solid (especially in recent weeks), so are arguably unlucky to currently be in the relegation zone. The other occupants, Ipswich and Bolton, are just bad bad bad. Unfortunately we look pretty lucky to be out of the drop zone for now... which suggests we will fall back in. That said for some reason xG seems to have had little bearing on our results in recent years, so maybe, just maybe we are indeed magic and not just lucky .

Mods - I checked the announcements page and couldn't see anything suggesting I'm not supposed to promote my own off-site stuff. Apologies if that is the case.

Meanwhile its 9 minutes past midnight here - goodnight all.

[LUX]

Ok I’ll risk the jinx.

Rotherham a goal down v Sheffield U and just had a player sent off.

Half an hour gone.

[Hound]

I’m interested in the XG stuff Brain, but like all stats I’m genuinely not sure how useful it really is. It doesn’t seem to correlate that closely with results. Is there a breakdown somewhere of how it is actually worked out? Be genuinely interested to see

[Sutekh]

Now a league of 6 and all that’s required is a top 3 finish.

Some respite gained after yesterday but the 10 games remaining for Reading are about as hard as it’s possible to get left with in a season. And when you factor in the unbelievable injury list that has bedevilled the club continuously for 2 years now it’s quite remarkable the club is still hanging on in there.

Odds are that this is still going to be going to the wire.

Next 2 rounds of fixtures are

Tuesday 12th March

Blackburn Rovers v Wigan Athletic
Bristol City v Ipswich Town
Bolton Wanderers v Sheffield Wednesday
Reading v Leeds United (red button)

Wednesday 13th March

Birmingham City v Millwall
Queens Park Rangers v Rotherham United

Saturday 16th March

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest
Millwall v Bristol City
Rotherham United v Norwich City
Stoke City v Reading
Wigan Athletic v Bolton Wanderers

So a pretty difficult time for all competitors in this small league

[Nameless]

League of 5 now surely ?
Either that or it’s a league of 7.
Ipswich are as far adrift from Bolton as we are behind QPR.....

[windermereROYAL]

Now a league of 6 and all that’s required is a top 3 finish.

Some respite gained after yesterday but the 10 games remaining for Reading are about as hard as it’s possible to get left with in a season. And when you factor in the unbelievable injury list that has bedevilled the club continuously for 2 years now it’s quite remarkable the club is still hanging on in there.

Odds are that this is still going to be going to the wire.

Next 2 rounds of fixtures are

Tuesday 12th March

Blackburn Rovers v Wigan Athletic
Bristol City v Ipswich Town
Bolton Wanderers v Sheffield Wednesday
Reading v Leeds United (red button)

Wednesday 13th March

Birmingham City v Millwall
Queens Park Rangers v Rotherham United

Saturday 16th March

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest
Millwall v Bristol City
Rotherham United v Norwich City
Stoke City v Reading
Wigan Athletic v Bolton Wanderers

So a pretty difficult time for all competitors in this small league

Millwall game off next week, they are still in the FA cup.

[Snowflake Royal]

League of 5 now surely ?
Either that or it’s a league of 7.
Ipswich are as far adrift from Bolton as we are behind QPR.....

It's a league of six in so far as who can go down. Ipswich are in it because they are going down. QPR aren't because they'd have to lose virtually every game and be overtaken by four others which essentially isnt going to happen.

[Sutekh]

Saturday 16th March

Ipswich Town v Nottingham Forest
Millwall v Bristol City
Rotherham United v Norwich City
Stoke City v Reading
Wigan Athletic v Bolton Wanderers

So a pretty difficult time for all competitors in this small league

Millwall game off next week, they are still in the FA cup.

Millwall v Bristol City has now been re-arranged for Tuesday 30th April so they're going to have a game in hand for a fair while.

[NewCorkSeth]

League of 5 now surely ?
Either that or it’s a league of 7.
Ipswich are as far adrift from Bolton as we are behind QPR.....

It's a league of six in so far as who can go down. Ipswich are in it because they are going down. QPR aren't because they'd have to lose virtually every game and be overtaken by four others which essentially isnt going to happen.

I think he just means for practicalitys sake there are only 2 relegation positions left as one is nailed on. And QPR could oxf*rd it up if they're not careful. They need to beat the teams below them (which would be great for us)

[Stranded]

League of 5 now surely ?
Either that or it’s a league of 7.
Ipswich are as far adrift from Bolton as we are behind QPR.....

It's a league of six in so far as who can go down. Ipswich are in it because they are going down. QPR aren't because they'd have to lose virtually every game and be overtaken by four others which essentially isnt going to happen.

I think he just means for practicalitys sake there are only 2 relegation positions left as one is nailed on. And QPR could oxf*rd it up if they're not careful. They need to beat the teams below them (which would be great for us)

If we do the unexpected and beat Leeds tomorrow, then we will only be 4 points behind them. Most likely thing is we don't win, then we spend Weds evening hoping QPR do us a favour and beat Rotherham.

[Snowflake Royal]

Sorry, just dont buy QPR getting 3 points or fewer in 10 games whilst Reading, Wigan, Millwall and Rotherham get 8, 8, 10 and 11.

Theyre not in the relegation fight. They may be overtaken by teams in the fight, but then those teams will have escaped it too, not dragged them in.

[Stranded]

Sorry, just dont buy QPR getting 3 points or fewer in 10 games whilst Reading, Wigan, Millwall and Rotherham get 8, 8, 10 and 11.

Theyre not in the relegation fight. They may be overtaken by teams in the fight, but then those teams will have escaped it too, not dragged them in.

They realistically aren't but they are the next target for us for the reasons you state.

[Hendo]

Sorry, just dont buy QPR getting 3 points or fewer in 10 games whilst Reading, Wigan, Millwall and Rotherham get 8, 8, 10 and 11.

Theyre not in the relegation fight. They may be overtaken by teams in the fight, but then those teams will have escaped it too, not dragged them in.

Sounds a bit like us on a couple of occasions, we were never in any real danger of going down while it was still mathematically possible.

[NewCorkSeth]

Sorry, just dont buy QPR getting 3 points or fewer in 10 games whilst Reading, Wigan, Millwall and Rotherham get 8, 8, 10 and 11.

Theyre not in the relegation fight. They may be overtaken by teams in the fight, but then those teams will have escaped it too, not dragged them in.

It would be pretty funny though..

[Snowflake Royal]

Sorry, just dont buy QPR getting 3 points or fewer in 10 games whilst Reading, Wigan, Millwall and Rotherham get 8, 8, 10 and 11.

Theyre not in the relegation fight. They may be overtaken by teams in the fight, but then those teams will have escaped it too, not dragged them in.

It would be pretty funny though..

Id laugh my arse off even while the egg was dripping down my face.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Sorry, just dont buy QPR getting 3 points or fewer in 10 games whilst Reading, Wigan, Millwall and Rotherham get 8, 8, 10 and 11.

Theyre not in the relegation fight. They may be overtaken by teams in the fight, but then those teams will have escaped it too, not dragged them in.

It would be pretty funny though..

Id laugh my arse off even while the egg was dripping down my face.

That ain't egg x