89 Points?

[Huntley & Palmer]

I thought it would take a lot to top Spacey as the most boring poster ever, it seems Snowball and cmonurz are defying expectations with their stat bore fest. You want to move onto NFL or cricket

[cmonurz]

I was right, it definitely is 'Irony Day' on ObNob today.

[Snowball]

Just looked at this recent form guide.

It doesn't include the mid-week games this week so is for many clubs 10 from the last 11

I was surprised to see we are third-top on form over the last ten
Excluding ourselves, we have played 2 of the top 4, 4 of the top 8, 7 of the top 14

NINE OF BRISTOL'S LAST TEN OPPONENTS ARE IN THE BOTTOM TEN FORM CLUBS


READING OPPONENTS IN BOLD

10 4 1 1 10 5 3 1 0 08 03 7 2 1 18 08 23 Bristol City
10 4 0 0 07 0 2 4 0 10 07 6 4 0 17 07 22 Cardiff City
10 3 2 0 05 1 2 2 1 05 04 5 4 1 10 05 19 Reading
10 2 1 1 04 3 4 0 2 11 08 6 1 3 15 11 19 Doncaster Rovers
10 3 3 0 12 4 1 3 0 05 03 4 6 0 17 07 18 Swansea City
10 2 2 1 08 7 3 0 2 07 06 5 2 3 15 13 17 Nottingham Forest
10 2 1 2 07 6 2 3 0 06 03 4 4 2 13 09 16 Sheffield United
10 3 2 0 06 2 1 2 2 07 09 4 4 2 13 11 16 Preston North End
10 1 3 0 04 3 2 3 1 10 06 3 6 1 14 09 15 Queens Park Rangers
10 3 1 2 09 7 1 1 2 04 05 4 2 4 13 12 14 Crystal Palace
10 3 1 1 08 6 0 3 2 04 06 3 4 3 12 12 13 Coventry
10 0 3 2 03 5 3 1 1 09 07 3 4 3 12 12 13 Ipswich Town
10 2 3 1 06 5 1 1 2 02 04 3 4 3 08 09 13 Birmingham City
10 1 2 2 07 9 1 3 1 04 04 2 5 3 11 13 11 Blackpool
10 3 1 2 10 9 0 1 3 03 07 3 2 5 13 16 11 Watford
10 2 1 2 05 6 1 1 3 05 09 3 2 5 10 15 11 Burnley
10 1 2 1 08 8 1 2 3 06 08 2 4 4 14 16 10 Wolves
10 1 3 0 06 3 1 1 4 04 09 2 4 4 10 12 10 Sheffield Wednesday
10 2 0 3 04 6 1 1 3 05 08 3 1 6 09 14 10 Derby County
10 2 1 2 10 7 0 2 3 05 09 2 3 5 15 16 09 Norwich City
10 2 2 1 07 6 0 0 5 04 12 2 2 6 11 18 08 Charlton Athletic
10 1 1 3 04 5 1 1 3 04 11 2 2 6 08 16 08 Barnsley
10 0 2 3 05 9 1 1 3 05 09 1 3 6 10 18 06 Southampton
10 1 1 2 03 6 0 2 4 01 08 1 3 6 04 14 06 Plymouth Argyle


BRISTOL OPPONENTS IN BOLD

10 4 1 1 10 5 3 1 0 08 03 7 2 1 18 08 23 Bristol City
10 4 0 0 07 0 2 4 0 10 07 6 4 0 17 07 22 Cardiff City
10 3 2 0 05 1 2 2 1 05 04 5 4 1 10 05 19 Reading
10 2 1 1 04 3 4 0 2 11 08 6 1 3 15 11 19 Doncaster Rovers
10 3 3 0 12 4 1 3 0 05 03 4 6 0 17 07 18 Swansea City
10 2 2 1 08 7 3 0 2 07 06 5 2 3 15 13 17 Nottingham Forest
10 2 1 2 07 6 2 3 0 06 03 4 4 2 13 09 16 Sheffield United
10 3 2 0 06 2 1 2 2 07 09 4 4 2 13 11 16 Preston North End
10 1 3 0 04 3 2 3 1 10 06 3 6 1 14 09 15 Queens Park Rangers
10 3 1 2 09 7 1 1 2 04 05 4 2 4 13 12 14 Crystal Palace
10 3 1 1 08 6 0 3 2 04 06 3 4 3 12 12 13 Coventry
10 0 3 2 03 5 3 1 1 09 07 3 4 3 12 12 13 Ipswich Town
10 2 3 1 06 5 1 1 2 02 04 3 4 3 08 09 13 Birmingham City
10 1 2 2 07 9 1 3 1 04 04 2 5 3 11 13 11 Blackpool
10 3 1 2 10 9 0 1 3 03 07 3 2 5 13 16 11 Watford
10 2 1 2 05 6 1 1 3 05 09 3 2 5 10 15 11 Burnley
10 1 2 1 08 8 1 2 3 06 08 2 4 4 14 16 10 Wolves
10 1 3 0 06 3 1 1 4 04 09 2 4 4 10 12 10 Sheffield Wednesday
10 2 0 3 04 6 1 1 3 05 08 3 1 6 09 14 10 Derby County
10 2 1 2 10 7 0 2 3 05 09 2 3 5 15 16 09 Norwich City
10 2 2 1 07 6 0 0 5 04 12 2 2 6 11 18 08 Charlton Athletic
10 1 1 3 04 5 1 1 3 04 11 2 2 6 08 16 08 Barnsley
10 0 2 3 05 9 1 1 3 05 09 1 3 6 10 18 06 Southampton
10 1 1 2 03 6 0 2 4 01 08 1 3 6 04 14 06 Plymouth Argyle

[Snowball]

My point stands. The reason the goalposts keep moving is because you change the stats every time someone makes a counter-point.

You mean like when I said Swansea had a bad start and are much better now
you said, "Well Bristol had a bad start too"

So I compared first 8 versus all games SINCE the first 8
and showed that in fact Bristol did NOT have a bad start
and averaged 1.5 points per game for the first 8 and 1.52 since

so you then just took the last 7 games for Bristol, ignoring the crap results immediately before that mini-run?

No, that interpretation of how this discussion has developed is utterly wrong, and misrepresents what you have done.

Oh, DO explain

[Snowball]

Club, whole season-form versus top-half of the table.


01 16 08 05 03 05 03 18 14 04 29 1.81 Birmingham City
02 17 08 05 04 07 06 28 15 13 29 1.71 Reading
03 17 08 03 06 03 04 24 21 03 27 1.59 Wolverhampton Wndrs
04 17 06 07 04 07 05 25 19 06 25 1.47 Swansea City
05 16 06 05 05 03 04 19 22 -03 23 1.44 Burnley
05 16 07 02 07 05 05 19 22 -03 23 1.44 Preston North End
07 13 04 05 04 07 07 08 11 -03 17 1.31 Queens Park Rangers
08 14 05 03 06 03 03 21 18 03 18 1.29 Ipswich Town
09 15 04 07 04 04 04 15 22 -07 19 1.27 Sheffield Wednesday
10 13 03 07 03 03 03 16 15 01 16 1.23 Cardiff City
11 14 03 07 04 06 05 15 14 01 16 1.14 Sheffield United
12 20 05 05 10 05 05 28 36 -08 20 1.00 Watford
13 15 04 03 08 05 07 09 17 -08 15 1.00 Doncaster Rovers
14 17 03 07 07 04 05 14 24 -10 16 0.94 Coventry City
15 17 03 06 08 03 08 13 23 -10 15 0.88 Plymouth Argyle
16 18 04 03 11 02 03 23 34 -11 15 0.83 Charlton Athletic
17 18 03 06 09 03 07 14 26 -12 15 0.83 Blackpool
18 13 02 04 07 03 05 14 21 -07 10 0.77 Crystal Palace
19 17 03 04 10 02 06 21 28 -07 13 0.76 Norwich City
20 16 02 05 09 01 08 11 26 -15 11 0.69 Derby County
21 16 02 04 10 01 05 17 32 -15 10 0.63 Southampton
22 14 01 05 08 04 06 10 25 -15 08 0.57 Bristol City <<<<<
23 16 02 03 11 01 08 12 28 -16 09 0.56 Barnsley
24 17 01 05 11 01 06 14 31 -17 08 0.47 Nottingham Forest

[Snowball]

Resuts v Bottom Half of Table

01 16 11 03 02 04 00 40 22 18 36 2.25 Wolverhampton Wndrs
02 19 12 06 01 10 03 32 12 20 42 2.21 Bristol City
03 16 10 05 01 08 00 25 11 14 35 2.19 Cardiff City
04 14 09 03 02 08 01 30 11 19 30 2.14 Reading
05 17 10 03 04 06 03 28 14 14 33 1.94 Crystal Palace
06 18 11 02 05 06 04 28 15 13 35 1.94 Sheffield United
07 16 09 04 03 05 03 22 14 08 31 1.94 Birmingham City
08 15 08 03 04 03 03 26 16 10 27 1.80 Derby County
09 17 08 06 03 05 02 25 17 08 30 1.76 Preston North End
10 15 08 02 05 06 06 18 13 05 26 1.73 Barnsley
11 15 07 04 04 03 02 22 15 07 25 1.67 Coventry City
12 18 08 06 04 05 05 25 18 07 30 1.67 Queens Park Rangers
13 17 08 04 05 05 03 27 23 04 28 1.65 Burnley
14 16 07 05 04 07 05 21 16 05 26 1.63 Nottingham Forest
15 15 05 08 02 04 04 21 16 05 23 1.53 Swansea City
16 19 07 08 04 06 04 24 18 06 29 1.53 Ipswich Town
17 15 06 05 04 05 03 20 20 00 23 1.53 Blackpool
18 17 07 04 06 06 06 17 18 -01 25 1.47 Doncaster Rovers
19 18 07 02 09 04 07 19 23 -04 23 1.28 Sheffield Wednesday
20 16 06 02 08 06 06 16 19 -03 20 1.25 Plymouth Argyle
21 16 05 04 07 03 03 22 24 -02 19 1.19 Norwich City
22 11 04 01 06 02 02 16 17 -01 13 1.18 Watford
23 16 04 06 06 07 07 12 18 -06 18 1.13 Southampton
24 14 02 04 08 04 06 11 21 -10 10 0.71 Charlton Athletic

[PlasticRoyale]

All stats are relevant

Last game, last 4, last six, last ten, last twelve, last 18, last 24, whole season

Otherwise, why do people harp on about the last four and "we" haven't scored. Isn't that selective?

What is it we're trying to prove with the stats? Seems to have got a bit lost along the way

[bcubed]

You mean like when I said Swansea had a bad start and are much better now
you said, "Well Bristol had a bad start too"

So I compared first 8 versus all games SINCE the first 8
and showed that in fact Bristol did NOT have a bad start
and averaged 1.5 points per game for the first 8 and 1.52 since

so you then just took the last 7 games for Bristol, ignoring the crap results immediately before that mini-run?

No, that interpretation of how this discussion has developed is utterly wrong, and misrepresents what you have done.

Oh, DO explain

For the love of God please don't!!

[Ian Royal]

All stats are relevant

Last game, last 4, last six, last ten, last twelve, last 18, last 24, whole season

Otherwise, why do people harp on about the last four and "we" haven't scored. Isn't that selective?

I have been to 6 Reading games this season. 1 draw, 1 loss and 4 wins. That means I have a 66% win ratio. I'm going to Bristol city, which means there is a 66% chance we will win the game.

Those are statistics. It is possible to come to the conclusion I have using them. However the conclusion is wrong, because not all stats are relevant and when taken in isolation and without reference to other factors are useless.

Likewise the stats for the probability of me being dealt pocket rockets in a hand of Texas Hold'em also has absolutely no relevance to anything to do with this "discussion" (not the right description, seeing as there isn't a lot of listening going on).

Stats can be useful, but often are used by morons who don't understand how to interpret them and that they aren't the be all and end all.

For example the ability to prove that the decline in Western Pirates is a cause of Global Warming.

[Snowball]

Big deal. A lot of statistics ARE relevant.

If a side is hopeless away from home, it's hopeless away from home.

We don't need to see them once away from home to know if they are bad
not if it says Played 23 Won Nil Drawn Nil Lost 23

You may argue with my interpretation of the stats on Swansea/Reading/Bristol
but the stats are real, it's a fact that Bristol cannot beat a top 11 side in
two-thirds of a season, just as it's a fact that they know how to beat bottom
half sides. The extra fact (and clear, justified interpretation) is that their
recent run of form involved wins against mostly bottom-six clubs.

MY interpretation is therefore that they are over-rated and will lose to
better clubs and clubs on good runs. First proof was Doncaster, and tomorrow
they will fail to beat Reading, too

[cmonurz]

So what does Swansea's defeat to Watford 'prove'?

That after a decent run, but ultimately only 4 wins in 14 games, Swansea have flattered to deceive and will plummet from whence they came?

And LOL @ 'the true table'. You do know that future events are not all governed by the past, don't you?

[Snowball]

Interesting (to me) statistic is that Wolves are still ahead of Reading on the true table (points per game)

And these figures give us a very strong situation given that Wolves play Birmingham and Cardiff yet

01 1.91 Wolverhampton
02 1.90 Reading
03 1.88 Birmingham City
04 1.76 Cardiff City
05 1.61 Preston North End
06 1.59 Sheffield United
07 1.55 Burnley
08 1.52 Bristol City
09 1.52 Queens Park Rangers
10 1.50 Swansea City
11 1.43 Crystal Palace
12 1.42 Ipswich Town
13 1.28 Coventry City
14 1.27 Sheffield Wednesday
15 1.25 Doncaster Rovers
16 1.23 Derby County
17 1.15 Blackpool
18 1.13 Barnsley
19 1.06 Watford
20 1.06 Plymouth Argyle
21 1.03 Nottingham Forest
22 0.97 Norwich City
23 0.88 Southampton
24 0.78 Charlton Athletic

[Ian Royal]

Big deal. A lot of statistics ARE relevant.

Some are relevant when used intelligently and not in isolation as the only relevant information.

Oh and Wolves are ahead of us, because they have more points than us you 'tard.

[Snowball]

So what does Swansea's defeat to Watford 'prove'?

Answer 1: One results proves next-to-nothing. whereas 6-10-12-18-24 game statistics even out luck, injuries, sendings-off, keepers having a blinder etc

Answer 2: That a single match is a very, VERY poor statistic to use?

Answer 3: That Swansea's relative inability to do well against bottom clubs (as shown by stats) continued?

Answer 4: That Watford have won 6/9 at home recently? Suggesting they are a dangerous home side?

League........ W4 L2 11-08
League & Cup W6 D3 17-14

[cmonurz]

So what does Swansea's defeat to Watford 'prove'?

Answer 1: One results proves next-to-nothing. whereas 6-10-12-18-24 game statistics even out luck, injuries, sendings-off, keepers having a blinder etc

Answer 2: That a single match is a very, VERY poor statistic to use?

Answer 3: That Swansea's relative inability to do well against bottom clubs (as shown by stats) continued?

Answer 4: That Watford have won 6/9 at home recently? Suggesting they are a dangerous home side?

1 & 2 - you just stated that Bristol City's loss to Doncaster 'proves' their inability to win certain games. Make up your mind.
4 - you claimed that Doncaster's recent good run was irrelevant in City's recent defeat to the team in 15th (as you emphasised many times). Why does Watford's decent form matter in Swansea's defeat?

[Snowball]

Big deal. A lot of statistics ARE relevant.

Some are relevant when used intelligently and not in isolation as the only relevant information.

Oh and Wolves are ahead of us, because they have more points than us you 'tard.

I can read, dummy, and I can see that Wolves have more points.

BUT IN THIS TABLE BIRMINGHAM ARE BELOW US (EVEN THOUGH THEY HAVE MORE POINTS!

Now who's the 'tard?

A "True table" ignores number of games and ranks teams in points-per-game only

What the table shows is that EVEN IF WE HAD PLAYED THE SAME NUMBER OF GAMES AS WOLVES
we ought to be fractionally below them. That to me is a bit of a surprise as we have two games in
hand and need just 4 points to pass them. The point is, to date we have not averaged 2 points a game
over the whole season and should not "automatically" be expected to gain the necessary four points.

[Snowball]

1 & 2 - you just stated that Bristol City's loss to Doncaster 'proves' their inability to win certain games. Make up your mind.

You really are not very bright are you?

I have made the point that Bristol are (so far this season) totally incapable of beating a side in the current top eleven (and only once have the beaten a top-half side)

That says NOTHING in itself about how they will play against bottom half sides.

It's a fact that they have got 84% of their points from sides in the bottom half, 90% from sides 12-24th

That says NOTHING in itself about how they will play against any specific bottom half side.

I posted a new stat this morning which showed that 9 out of their ten most-recent league games were against sides OFF FORM

That says nothing in itself about what will happen when they play an in-form side, but it does show that their run
has more to do with the opposition playing badly than them playing well.

But the single result against Doncaster SUGGESTS that they cannot beat top-half sides OR, it seems, sides with half-decent form.

you claimed that Doncaster's recent good run was irrelevant in City's recent defeat to the team in 15th (as you emphasised many times).

I did? Perhaps you could quote me.



[

Why does Watford's decent form matter in Swansea's defeat?

Miss Selective, did I not in my answer also refer to OTHER possibilities, including Swansea's away record?

[cmonurz]

I read that post, and thought 'I've got no f*cking idea what he is on about'.

So I'm out for good this time.

[Snowball]

I read that post, and thought 'I've got no f*cking idea what he is on about'.

So I'm out for good this time.

Money on this?

[PEARCEY]

I read that post, and thought 'I've got no f*cking idea what he is on about'.

So I'm out for good this time.

You had better be