MATCHWATCH : Middlesbrough (h)

[Zip]

[quote="windermereROYAL"]20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote

Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.

[Snowflake Royal]

20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote

Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.

Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?

Compared to others in the division?

I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.

[bcubed]

So which of those three chances was above average opportunity from that position? Rinomhota striking a ball first time from the "wrong" side (it's easier to strike coming across the body). McIntyre heading it under extreme pressure from every direction (possibly on the backfoot too, or that might have been Joãos)? Ejaria probably had the cleanest opportunity, but is pushing >25y away.

It's incredibly generous to think either of those were good chances.

Haven't you before made the argument that a 30 yard wondergoal isn't that surprising because these are professional who should be able to do that every time? Where was that "skill" on any of these chances? Or does it only get recognized on the rare occasion it hits the jackpot?

I'm not interested. You obviously think all headed chances and long shots are of equal value because of some numbers on a spreadsheet. Which is nonsense.

Missed the second half (doesn't sound like I missed much...) so only just seen this.

I have never claimed all shots [from the same location] are identical- that's absurd. The only identical situation is a penalty.

If you had bothered to look into it, you would know the location of each shot represents a distribution of probabilities, with lots of different factors impacting that individual chance. The individual xG number represented is simply the average, likely the mean as lots of the factors that would skew the distribution (rendering the mean as biased) are already accounted for in the model estinate. The factors that would cause an outlier if the model was purely based on shot location have already been included in the Opta model (e.g. position of GK, no of defenders, shot type- ground vs air, FK etc), and more advanced models are even better (Statsbomb include the number of defenders applying pressure, direction of pressure etc)

In both of those (first half) examples, I gave clear reason why the opportunities likely represented a worse-than-average chance from that situation, so the actual (unknowable) probability was likely lower than the 5% xG figure: velocity of the pass to Rino, and pressure from defenders on TMac. Do you have any logic argument to suggest they were easier-than-average?

HTH

Yawn

[Zip]

20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote

Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.

Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?

Compared to others in the division?

I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.

I’d bet money on it being one of the worst in the division.

[Notts Royal]

Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.

You should read all the shit you lot post.

Thought the guy who spoke near the end re Joaos low work rate was spot on, sulking, lazy, throwing his arms in the air, not chasing back when he lost the ball, lets cash in now.

That’s why my nickname for him is Lazy Joao...because he is. I don’t dislike him, he’s brilliant on his day. But if things don’t go his way, he’s lazy.

There’s been comparisons between him and Kitson, and whilst he’s had a similar impact, he doesn’t come close to Big Dave in terms of legendary status for me

[Lower West]

Today was tactically inept. Colin set up Middlesbrough in a 3-1-4-2 formation. Pressed high up the pitch and stopped our only style of play in it's tracks. Seems we are heading back to the Stam era. Once sussed out there's no alternative plan.

[windermereROYAL]

20 goals conceded at home now, only one team have let in more, Birmingham (24) and they`ve lost 10. f**king unacceptable, why are we so shit on our own pitch?[/quote

Too often we concede. Heads drop. We concede again. It’s been a pattern throughout the season. This squad is more talented than the one which won the title under McDermott but they are far more mentally weaker.

Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?

Compared to others in the division?

I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.

Coventry 76, 85 mins. Bournemouth 56, 59 mins. Stoke 23, 35mins (not quite). Preston 64,68mins. Brentford 23,29mins. Birmingham 29,37mins. Brentford 86,88mins. Millwall 76,85mins. today 22,29mins.

One word, atrocious.

[AthleticoSpizz]

Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.

You should read all the shit you lot post.

Thought the guy who spoke near the end re Joaos low work rate was spot on, sulking, lazy, throwing his arms in the air, not chasing back when he lost the ball, lets cash in now.

That’s why my nickname for him is Lazy Joao...because he is. I don’t dislike him, he’s brilliant on his day. But if things don’t go his way, he’s lazy.

There’s been comparisons between him and Kitson, and whilst he’s had a similar impact, he doesn’t come close to Big Dave in terms of legendary status for me

DK seemed to be almost as much an effective defender as much as a old-school striker....best value to the club ever?

[alfie9]

I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.

Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.

[Zip]

Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?

Compared to others in the division?

I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.

Coventry 76, 85 mins. Bournemouth 56, 59 mins. Stoke 23, 35mins (not quite). Preston 64,68mins. Brentford 23,29mins. Birmingham 29,37mins. Brentford 86,88mins. Millwall 76,85mins. today 22,29mins.

One word, atrocious.

So in 9 of the 10 games we’ve lost we conceded two goals very quickly. That really is a big problem.

[Snowflake Royal]

Anyone fancy doing an analysis of how often we concede within 10 minutes of letting one in?

Compared to others in the division?

I have a feeling it might be disproportionately often.

Coventry 76, 85 mins. Bournemouth 56, 59 mins. Stoke 23, 35mins (not quite). Preston 64,68mins. Brentford 23,29mins. Birmingham 29,37mins. Brentford 86,88mins. Millwall 76,85mins. today 22,29mins.

One word, atrocious.

So in 9 of the 10 games we’ve lost we conceded two goals very quickly. That really is a big problem.

23rd, 23rd, 29th, 22nd...

That's suggestive of a concentration issue to me.

[Brain Traysers]

I'm not interested. You obviously think all headed chances and long shots are of equal value because of some numbers on a spreadsheet. Which is nonsense.

Missed the second half (doesn't sound like I missed much...) so only just seen this.

I have never claimed all shots [from the same location] are identical- that's absurd. The only identical situation is a penalty.

If you had bothered to look into it, you would know the location of each shot represents a distribution of probabilities, with lots of different factors impacting that individual chance. The individual xG number represented is simply the average, likely the mean as lots of the factors that would skew the distribution (rendering the mean as biased) are already accounted for in the model estinate. The factors that would cause an outlier if the model was purely based on shot location have already been included in the Opta model (e.g. position of GK, no of defenders, shot type- ground vs air, FK etc), and more advanced models are even better (Statsbomb include the number of defenders applying pressure, direction of pressure etc)

In both of those (first half) examples, I gave clear reason why the opportunities likely represented a worse-than-average chance from that situation, so the actual (unknowable) probability was likely lower than the 5% xG figure: velocity of the pass to Rino, and pressure from defenders on TMac. Do you have any logic argument to suggest they were easier-than-average?

HTH

Yawn

Solid argument m9!

[Brain Traysers]

I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.

Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.

I can't see this season ending in anything other than playoff disappointment, whether failing to make them, or limping to 5th-6th and struggling to compete thanks to more injuries to key players.

Even if it does, it's been a hell of a lot more fun watching us be competitive and creative in the majority of games!

[Zip]

I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.

Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.

I can't see this season ending in anything other than playoff disappointment, whether failing to make them, or limping to 5th-6th and struggling to compete thanks to more injuries to key players.

Even if it does, it's been a hell of a lot more fun watching us be competitive and creative in the majority of games!

The team have been a joy to watch this season and given us something to look forward to during some miserable months. It would be a shame if it all petered out.

[South Coast Royal]

It would be good to know if the club tried to get in any new players during this last transfer window.
Today was the type of performance where you might bring on a winger or change the front man but looking at our bench we had Puscas who has been out for ages and ages and a collection of non-achievers or not readies.

It would be a great shame if this season became one where we drift to 7th or 8th because at times the team has played better than any Reading side for a very long time.
There does appear to be a brittleness and the stat earlier about goals being conceded so quickly in succession is shocking.

The one good thing is that the others in the top 6 are from from being the real deal so if we get a win on Tuesday the picture might look good again.
We should of course know that following Reading is seldom predictable so why should we be surprised at today's result and performance?

[leon]

Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.

You should read all the shit you lot post.

Dellor is unprofessional. He takes an irrational like or dislike to a player and it clouds his commentary. Gooding offers next to no insight considering he’s an ex pro.

Get off your high horse Zip ffs.

[windermereROYAL]

Some of the older fans will remember Bury being our bogey side, it would appear Boro are the modern day version. shocking recent record against them.

[Zip]

Don’t get the BBC Berkshire hate, lads.

You should read all the shit you lot post.

Dellor is unprofessional. He takes an irrational like or dislike to a player and it clouds his commentary. Gooding offers next to no insight considering he’s an ex pro.

Get off your high horse Zip ffs.

Just saying babes. This seems to have struck a nerve for some reason. Wassup leonski? It’s a messageboard where we share our opinions. I dont think the pair are very good.

[Brain Traysers]

I am already mentally preparing myself for this club finishing 7th.

Bye Omar, enjoy Germany. Hope we at least sign McIntyre.

I can't see this season ending in anything other than playoff disappointment, whether failing to make them, or limping to 5th-6th and struggling to compete thanks to more injuries to key players.

Even if it does, it's been a hell of a lot more fun watching us be competitive and creative in the majority of games!

The team have been a joy to watch this season and given us something to look forward to during some miserable months. It would be a shame if it all petered out.

Yeah agree, I think I have written off hope mostly as self protection! Plus while promotion is a goal, 2 of our 3 seasons there haven't been much fun. I honestly think we would get battered, and see the main benefit being an opportunity to clear some of the debt (which realistically we won't do anyway). Championship promotion campaigns >>> PL relegation slog

[South Coast Royal]

Some of the older fans will remember Bury being our bogey side, it would appear Boro are the modern day version. shocking recent record against them.

Amongst the games v Bury we lost on the day that I was in Oxford getting married-a good one to miss.
Yes, we are still married.