RUMOUR - Long to Coventry

[SteveRoyal]

He's got a mean change of pace on 'im, that lad.
One of the best aspects of a decent striker, and he showed he can score goals at the end of last season.
Long and N Hunt up top next season?
Maybe not.

[Snowball]

Number of chances required for a goal. League 2008-9

On target/off target/hit woodwork/ goals/ ratio

14 13 03 09 03.33 (11 starts) (26 sub appearances) Shane Long
43 27 04 18 04.11 (39 starts) (02 sub appearances) Kevin Doyle
30 22 05 11 05.18 (27 starts) (11 sub appearances) Noel Hunt (usually played 60-65 minutes, not 90)

If these official club stats are correct it means that Long has been on target 14 times and scored 9 of those. That is LETHAL.

He may only be on target about 50% of his chances, but if he's on target, it goes in! (64%)

Doyle, OTOH got 18 goals from 43 on target = 42%



06 05 00 02 05.50 Brynjar Gunnarsson
09 07 01 03 05.67 Andre Bikey
17 11 01 05 05.80 Kalifa Cisse
17 24 02 06 07.17 Stephen Hunt
06 05 00 01 11.00 Marek Matejovsky
07 05 00 01 12.00 Ivar Ingimarsson
16 09 01 02 13.00 Dave Kitson
08 07 00 01 15.00 Leroy Lita
09 09 01 01 19.00 James Harper
23 24 01 02 24.00 Jimmy Kebe

[Ian Royal]

14 shots on target from that many appearances doesn't look very impressive IMO. That's barely more than 1 per game ignoring his sub appearances!

27 shots in 11 (26)? What was he doing the rest of the time?!

[Snowball]

14 shots on target from that many appearances doesn't look very impressive IMO. That's barely more than 1 per game ignoring his sub appearances!

27 shots in 11 (26)? What was he doing the rest of the time?!

Like 7 Million pound man Doyle is better?


43 shots on target in 39 starts (1.10 shots on target per start) and scores 18 goals Doyle (age 26) = 6-7 million
14 shots on target in 11 starts (1.27 shots on target per start) and scores 09 goals Long (age 22)

Doyle had three times as many minutes on the pitch as Long

[CMRoyal]

14 shots on target from that many appearances doesn't look very impressive IMO. That's barely more than 1 per game ignoring his sub appearances!

27 shots in 11 (26)? What was he doing the rest of the time?!

Running back into an onside position about three seconds too late, mostly.

Actually, I thought he was much improved last season, and hope for further progression in 09/10.

[CMRoyal]

14 shots on target from that many appearances doesn't look very impressive IMO. That's barely more than 1 per game ignoring his sub appearances!

27 shots in 11 (26)? What was he doing the rest of the time?!

Like 7 Million pound man Doyle is better?


43 shots on target in 39 starts (1.10 shots on target per start) and scores 18 goals Doyle (age 26) = 6-7 million
14 shots on target in 11 starts (1.27 shots on target per start) and scores 09 goals Long (age 22)

Doyle had three times as many minutes on the pitch as Long

Trouble is, if you use stats like a drunk uses a lamp-post (ie for support rather than illumination) you can 'prove' anything. Doyle is much better than Long, full stop. That's why Doyler just went for £6.5 million. That's also why he's ahead of Long in the international pecking order.

[Rev Algenon Stickleback H]

If you say the average sub appearance is about 15 minutes, then those 26 subs are equivalent to about 4 and a half games.

That makes it 27 shots in 15.33 games, or 1.76 shots per game

By comparison...

Doyle had 70/39.33 = 1.78
N Hunt (subbed a remarkable 21 times if my quick count was correct) has 52 / 27 + (11x15 mins - 21x15 mins) = 2.05

I think people just hugely overestimate how many shots/passes/tackles etc players make in a game, as the stats aren't widely scrutinised. If someone, for example, said that James Harper was averaging 30 passes a match last season, very few would know if that was a high number or not.

If someone was to say that Stephen Hunt only put in 3.8 crosses per game last year, many would say that proves what a useless lazy player he was last season, yet his total was the highest in the championship.

Part of that, of course, is that we don't tend to be obsessive over personal stats like they are in some sports, and also because such skills can be qualitive than quantitive - i.e. there's nothing in that crosses stat which says how many failed to reach their target.

[Tommy Youlden's Ears]

Part of that, of course, is that we don't tend to be obsessive over personal stats like they are in some sports, and also because such skills can be qualitive than quantitive - i.e. there's nothing in that crosses stat which says how many failed to reach their target.

Or failed to have a target in the first place and were actually just blind 'wellies'.

[Snowball]

In terms of total shots Noel Hunt was the best by far

One shot every 35.26 minutes Hunt
One shot every 46.66 minutes Doyle
One shot every 54.40 minutes Long


In terms of shots ON TARGET, Noel Hunt was best again

One shot every 067 minutes Hunt
One shot every 080 minutes Doyle
One shot every 117 minutes Long

But, for whatever reason when Long hits the target he usually scores and because of this

Shane Long had more GOALS per minute played than either Hunt or Doyle


1,632 minutes = 09 Goals = 181.333 minutes per goal = Long

2,010 minutes = 11 goals = 182.727 minutes per goal = Hunt (N)

3,453 minutes = 18 Goals = 191.833 minutes per goal = Doyle




KD NH SL
90 00 00 Forest
73 02 17 PLYMOUTH
76 18 14 Charlton
90 22 68 PALACE
90 30 60 Ipswich
62 78 28 WEDNESDAY
90 54 36 Watford
90 76 14 SWANSEA
90 84 06 Wolves
90 25 65 BURNLEY
69 90 21 Preston
90 83 07 DONCASTER
90 90 09 QPR
90 90 00 Burnley
73 68 17 BRISTOL
90 68 22 DERBY
90 75 15 Sheff Utd
90 61 29 SAINTS
90 35 00 Cardiff
90 72 18 COVENTRY
90 56 00 Barnsley
90 80 10 BLACKPOOL
90 80 10 NORWICH
90 27 63 Birmingham
90 63 27 CARDIFF
90 11 90 Saints
76 76 14 WATFORD
90 62 00 Swansea
82 80 10 Wolves
90 00 00 QPR
90 19 14 PRESTON
90 09 00 BRISTOL
90 90 00 FOREST
90 77 13 Wednesday
90 00 90 Plymouth
90 00 90 CHARLTON
22 00 68 IPSWICH
90 00 01 Doncaster
90 00 26 Palace
00 08 90 Coventry
90 12 00 SHEFF UTD
00 90 79 Blackpool
00 49 41 BARNSLEY
00 00 90 Derby
00 00 90 Norwich
00 00 90 BIRMINGHAM
40 00 90 Burnley
00 00 90 BURNLEY

[Snowball]

3,453 Minutes for 18 goals Doyle
2,010 Minutes for 11 goals Hunt
1,632 Minutes for 09 goals Long

If you multiply Hunt and Long's goals by the minute ratio you get


3,453 Minutes for 18.0 goals Doyle
3,453 Minutes for 18.9 goals Hunt
3,453 Minutes for 19.0 goals Long

IMO that's remarkable, three strikers with almost identical goal-scoring records

But Long (age 22) has four years of improvement in him to become as good as Doyle.

Compare any of those three with Kitson or Lita!!

[CMRoyal]

Part of that, of course, is that we don't tend to be obsessive over personal stats like they are in some sports,

then

a whole load of stats that nobody in their right mind would bother reading let alone typing out.

Well, there are exceptions to every rule, of course.

[chilipepper91]

a load of stats

i missed you xx

['lista]

Snowball,

You sad twat.

[Ian Royal]

Thing about Doyle is, he wasn't getting a lot of chances and shots before Xmas, but he (and the team as a whole) was putting away a significant proportion of the decent chances he got.

After Christmas he got very very few shots, happy to be corrected if someone is sad enough to know/dig up some figures. Which is why I'm not at all surprised to see his record that low.

I'm also quite sceptical about the figures in general to be perfectley honest. Although that is beside the point.

It wasn't meant as an attack on Long, nor as a claim that it was poor. Just that it looked poor to me. I'd be interested to see comparisons with Burnley, Sheff U, Birmingham, Cardiff, Wolves, Preston etc strikers.

As ever, it's a bit of a meaningless snapshot.