Coronavirus outbreak

[Linden Jones' Tash]

Its now about capacity and whether the health system can cope with the influx of these patients on top of the 'normal' caseload.

The models I've seen suggest ours won't and that's when you get big rises in morbidity and mortality, not just from those infected.

The Netherlands numbers look worrying now, given their size of population.

[morganb]

NEIL DIAMOND CHANGES 'SWEET CAROLINE' LYRICS

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/22/neil-dia ... ronavirus/

Instead of "Hands, touching hands," it goes, "Hands, washing hands."

But, wait ... there's more. Remember the lyric, "Touchin' Me, Touchin' You" ... well, it's now adjusted to "Don't touch me, I won't touch you."

[Jagermesiter1871]

[


25,000 a day was what he stated but even that sounds pie in the sky for the moment at least.

and he added, "and on up to 250,000

A journey asked him to clarify and he passed the buck to the scientist who waffled
but did not confirm

Well that does sounds like essentially every Boris corona virus update so I'm inclined to believe you. The fact people are suggesting the government have handled this well is baffling. Short of doing literally nothing I can't think of many ways they could have been less effective.

[Franchise FC]

[


25,000 a day was what he stated but even that sounds pie in the sky for the moment at least.

and he added, "and on up to 250,000

A journey asked him to clarify and he passed the buck to the scientist who waffled
but did not confirm

Well that does sounds like essentially every Boris corona virus update so I'm inclined to believe you. The fact people are suggesting the government have handled this well is baffling. Short of doing literally nothing I can't think of many ways they could have been less effective.

As one of Johnson’s biggest critics, what would you like him/the government to do ?
We are very clearly in unprecedented times and I’m not sure anyone could provide the perfect answer

[John Madejski's Wallet]

And no matter how much people think they can be magic'd out of thin air, the machines/labs/kits are simply not there to do the testing now its ramped up

[Jagermesiter1871]

China has a population of 1.4 billion yet suffered only 3,261 deaths so far.
Panic leads to irrational decision making.

between 250,000 and 600,000 have been dying of flu each year for many years and we do nothing.
Without understanding how many people have actually been infected (not just tested) we don't know how infectious or how deadly all this is.

I don't know how much of a threat this really is but the figures thrown around at the moment when compared to flu, DO NOT justify destroying the world economy. And it is also a proven fact, that if economies suffer, death rates in the population will rise.

So either governments are panic driven at the moment or they know more than they are telling.

You use China as an example and then completely disregard the fact they went on the most extreme shutdown imaginable for well over a month country wide. How do you think their numbers would look if they had done nothing instead confining the whole country to their homes and shutting essentially all business?

[Snowball]

For those who think "This is just SARS Mk II"

The UK reached 281 dead today that times 3 is 743

SARS in the whole of the outbreak, worldwide killed 770

The UK alone will pass the total worldwide SARS deaths,
so can we now agree this is on a scale barely imagined before?

=====================================================

1,543 055 - - - 3.56%
1,950 071 - - - 3.64%
2,626 104 - - - 3.96%
3,269 144 - - - 4.41%
3,983 177 - - - 4.44%
5,018 233 - - - 4.64%
5,683 281 - - - 4.94%

Note the last column.

The percentage of confirmed cases eventually dying has
risen every day of the last week, and that percentage is bound
to grow, even if we had zero more cases.

[Jagermesiter1871]

and he added, "and on up to 250,000

A journey asked him to clarify and he passed the buck to the scientist who waffled
but did not confirm

Well that does sounds like essentially every Boris corona virus update so I'm inclined to believe you. The fact people are suggesting the government have handled this well is baffling. Short of doing literally nothing I can't think of many ways they could have been less effective.

As one of Johnson’s biggest critics, what would you like him/the government to do ?
We are very clearly in unprecedented times and I’m not sure anyone could provide the perfect answer

Well consistent, enforceable and clear advice would be a start. Essentially every other countries leaders are implementing very black and white regulation. Us on the other hand were suggesting people don't go to pubs and night clubs - like a 20 year old is going to give oxf*rd about some intangible threat that doesn't necessarily impact them will listen.

Not to mention the bogus non-peer reviewed 'science' that we were following from our 'experts' when pursuing herd immunity, which even at the time seemed at odds to every other nations experts advice. Advice we are now actually following.

[Snowball]

China has a population of 1.4 billion yet suffered only 3,261 deaths so far.
Panic leads to irrational decision making.

between 250,000 and 600,000 have been dying of flu each year for many years and we do nothing.
Without understanding how many people have actually been infected (not just tested) we don't know how infectious or how deadly all this is.

I don't know how much of a threat this really is but the figures thrown around at the moment when compared to flu, DO NOT justify destroying the world economy. And it is also a proven fact, that if economies suffer, death rates in the population will rise.

So either governments are panic driven at the moment or they know more than they are telling.

You use China as an example and then completely disregard the fact they went on the most extreme shutdown imaginable for well over a month country wide. How do you think their numbers would look if they had done nothing instead confining the whole country to their homes and shutting essentially all business?

A serious article a week ago said that if the Chinese had done nothing
to suppress they would by then have reached 8.9 MILLION cases.

[Jagermesiter1871]

For those who think "This is just SARS Mk II"

The UK reached 281 dead today that times 3 is 743

SARS in the whole of the outbreak, worldwide killed 770

The UK alone will pass the total worldwide SARS deaths,
so can we now agree this is on a scale barely imagined before?

=====================================================

1,543 055 - - - 3.56%
1,950 071 - - - 3.64%
2,626 104 - - - 3.96%
3,269 144 - - - 4.41%
3,983 177 - - - 4.44%
5,018 233 - - - 4.64%
5,683 281 - - - 4.94%

Note the last column.

The percentage of confirmed cases eventually dying has
risen every day of the last week, and that percentage is bound
to grow, even if we had zero more cases.

Does anyone think its comparable to SARS? Part of the issue with SARs what that it was so limited in spread that it barely registered on the conscious of Europe.

[sandman]

China has a population of 1.4 billion yet suffered only 3,261 deaths so far.
Panic leads to irrational decision making.

between 250,000 and 600,000 have been dying of flu each year for many years and we do nothing.
Without understanding how many people have actually been infected (not just tested) we don't know how infectious or how deadly all this is.

I don't know how much of a threat this really is but the figures thrown around at the moment when compared to flu, DO NOT justify destroying the world economy. And it is also a proven fact, that if economies suffer, death rates in the population will rise.

So either governments are panic driven at the moment or they know more than they are telling.

You actually believe the Communist Chinese government when they say they only had that many deaths? The same Chinese government that hid the thing for over a month?

They're not telling the truth.

They've had way more than that.

[Jagermesiter1871]

China has a population of 1.4 billion yet suffered only 3,261 deaths so far.
Panic leads to irrational decision making.

between 250,000 and 600,000 have been dying of flu each year for many years and we do nothing.
Without understanding how many people have actually been infected (not just tested) we don't know how infectious or how deadly all this is.

I don't know how much of a threat this really is but the figures thrown around at the moment when compared to flu, DO NOT justify destroying the world economy. And it is also a proven fact, that if economies suffer, death rates in the population will rise.

So either governments are panic driven at the moment or they know more than they are telling.

You use China as an example and then completely disregard the fact they went on the most extreme shutdown imaginable for well over a month country wide. How do you think their numbers would look if they had done nothing instead confining the whole country to their homes and shutting essentially all business?

A serious article a week ago said that if the Chinese had done nothing
to suppress they would by then have reached 8.9 MILLION cases.

I believe it. That's the thing with exponential growth. Starts off slow but once they get going it wouldn't take long at all to get into the millions. Especially in a country with their population density and size.

[Jagermesiter1871]

China has a population of 1.4 billion yet suffered only 3,261 deaths so far.
Panic leads to irrational decision making.

between 250,000 and 600,000 have been dying of flu each year for many years and we do nothing.
Without understanding how many people have actually been infected (not just tested) we don't know how infectious or how deadly all this is.

I don't know how much of a threat this really is but the figures thrown around at the moment when compared to flu, DO NOT justify destroying the world economy. And it is also a proven fact, that if economies suffer, death rates in the population will rise.

So either governments are panic driven at the moment or they know more than they are telling.

You actually believe the Communist Chinese government when they say they only had that many deaths? The same Chinese government that hid the thing for over a month?

They're not telling the truth.

They've had way more than that.

And that's bearing in mind they openly admit their method of recording numbers will allocate a fair chunk of covid deaths to other causes.

[Snowball]

Not to mention the bogus non-peer reviewed 'science' that we were following from our 'experts' when pursuing herd immunity, which even at the time seemed at odds to every other nations experts advice. Advice we are now actually following.

The Times says Cummings was pushing the herd immunity bollocks
and was happy to sacrifice thousands of people.

They were eventually stopped by Imperial College's paper
(Full paper in today's Observer)

John Harris on Twitter posted:

“Herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad” - Cummings.

https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/stat ... 2581303296

[Snowball]

For those who think "This is just SARS Mk II"

The UK reached 281 dead today that times 3 is 743

SARS in the whole of the outbreak, worldwide killed 770

The UK alone will pass the total worldwide SARS deaths,
so can we now agree this is on a scale barely imagined before?

=====================================================

1,543 055 - - - 3.56%
1,950 071 - - - 3.64%
2,626 104 - - - 3.96%
3,269 144 - - - 4.41%
3,983 177 - - - 4.44%
5,018 233 - - - 4.64%
5,683 281 - - - 4.94%

Note the last column.

The percentage of confirmed cases eventually dying has
risen every day of the last week, and that percentage is bound
to grow, even if we had zero more cases.

Does anyone think its comparable to SARS? Part of the issue with SARs what that it was so limited in spread that it barely registered on the conscious of Europe.

A few days ago WWII etc was saying we'd soon forget this "just like we did SARS"

[Snowball]

And that's bearing in mind they openly admit their method of recording numbers will allocate a fair chunk of covid deaths to other causes.

Not just the Chinese. There are people in Old People's homes getting sick and dying
with the exact CV19 symptoms, without being tested, without being logged as CV cases

I presume they are effectively being triaged (AKA deliberately allowed to die) because
they are very old and weak, very likely to die anyway and, if they went to hospital, hospitals would crash.

NO, I do not categorically KNOW this or can prove it, but I have a contact in Sicily
who I respect greatly and is in no way a bullshitter, a biologist with a Masters
who told me this was happening and that his contacts in Spain were saying the same.

It's not "a conspiracy" just something that countries under pressure are having to do.

But it DOES (if true) underestimate the COVID-19 death figures

[Jagermesiter1871]

And that's bearing in mind they openly admit their method of recording numbers will allocate a fair chunk of covid deaths to other causes.

Not just the Chinese. There are people in Old People's homes getting sick and dying
with the exact CV19 symptoms, without being tested, without being logged as CV cases

I presume they are effectively being triaged (AKA deliberately allowed to die) because
they are very old and weak, very likely to die anyway and, if they went to hospital, hospitals would crash.

NO, I do not categorically KNOW this or can prove it, but I have a contact in Sicily
who I respect greatly and is in no way a bullshitter, a biologist with a Masters
who told me this was happening and that his contacts in Spain were saying the same.

It's not "a conspiracy" just something that countries under pressure are having to do.

But it DOES (if true) underestimate the COVID-19 death figures

Again I could believe it but the reporting in China is skewed to whole different degree. I imagine a lot of deaths there will be attributed to pneumonia or lung disease.

[Snowball]

32,897 1,693 4.26% 4.36% Yesterday - - - - - - - (24 Hours)
23,749 1,393 4.38% 4.50% Today - - - - - - - - - (Approx 14 Hours)

That is, in less than two days 3,086 deaths

SARS in total over 9 months was 770

770 x 4 is 3,080


So in under two days CV-19 Deaths are four times the total deaths under SARS (9 months)

The Non-China death rate for Confirmed Cases has risen to 4.5%, which I believe means
at least 9% when the illnesses are worked through... close to Italy's rate ATM

Italy

59,138 Cases - - - 5,476 Deaths - - - 9.26%

[Jagermesiter1871]

For those who think "This is just SARS Mk II"

The UK reached 281 dead today that times 3 is 743

SARS in the whole of the outbreak, worldwide killed 770

The UK alone will pass the total worldwide SARS deaths,
so can we now agree this is on a scale barely imagined before?

=====================================================

1,543 055 - - - 3.56%
1,950 071 - - - 3.64%
2,626 104 - - - 3.96%
3,269 144 - - - 4.41%
3,983 177 - - - 4.44%
5,018 233 - - - 4.64%
5,683 281 - - - 4.94%

Note the last column.

The percentage of confirmed cases eventually dying has
risen every day of the last week, and that percentage is bound
to grow, even if we had zero more cases.

Does anyone think its comparable to SARS? Part of the issue with SARs what that it was so limited in spread that it barely registered on the conscious of Europe.

A few days ago WWII etc was saying we'd soon forget this "just like we did SARS"

I assume they were just trying to get a rise out of you. This has already had huge world wide consequences whilst SARs barely registered for most of the world even at its peak.

Swine flu is perhaps more comparable and looking at the death figures I'm surprised how quickly that was forgotten about.

[Snowball]

Again I could believe it but the reporting in China is skewed to whole different degree. I imagine a lot of deaths there will be attributed to pneumonia or lung disease.

Yep. The so-called health-benefits of the Mediterranean diet
may be real but I understand that some of the Med Countries
don't log heart attacks and strokes the same way as we do in the UK...