Coronavirus outbreak

[Snowball]

So Hound,

How many Nobbers are over 60, over 70, how many with diabetes, heart issues, COPD, cancers etc?

While it may be true that the older folks will be hit hard, older folks is folks, Mums, Dads, Grandparents

Gordon Cummings was happy to sacrifice OAPS (long term benefit to the exchequer as a bonus) but I’d hope that most of us drop the “old” from “old people”

[Hound]

I didn't make any comment other than it affects older and those with underlying conditions a lot more.

Yes it will affect all of us significantly one way or another. My old man ticks every single box for being at risk, so yes its very scary

[Snowball]

Haven't been looking at the US, shocked to see New York City
had its first case March 1st, no deaths up to 13th March

First deaths (2) March 14th, 3rd death March 15th

As of yesterday (22nd) they had confirmed 114 deaths in New York City

So from 0 to 114 deaths in 9 days.

Sounds like they have a bigger problem than us.

[krapmle]

You are showing an incredible degree of naïveté

snowball you are showing an incredible degree of panic.
Death is death. So when this is over and the death total doesn't match the annual flu death rate, please justify destroying the world economy.

114 deaths in 9 days has no meaning. Were 120 people infected or 50 million?

Yes, "Flu" is a matter of fact, something we don't think about too much, and it is one of the things that can kill us.

Yes it has killed 109000 this winter so far. Why weren't you shouting from the roof tops people are gonna die?

[Millsy]

The good news is that sex is protective against coronavirus.

Stats clearly show that in general sexually active populations are at less risk of dying from it.

Less loo roll needed too.

[Half Horse]

I thought people were joking about Snowball and his stats in this thread......

Dear lord.

This is the perfect case for stats. Stats are facts. In yer face facts.

About a million times better than people bitching that every government
on the planet has gone mad (but they know better)

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics"

[Snowball]

You are showing an incredible degree of naïveté

snowball you are showing an incredible degree of panic.
Death is death. So when this is over and the death total doesn't match the annual flu death rate, please justify destroying the world economy.

114 deaths in 9 days has no meaning. Were 120 people infected or 50 million?

Yes, "Flu" is a matter of fact, something we don't think about too much, and it is one of the things that can kill us.

Yes it has killed 109000 this winter so far. Why weren't you shouting from the roof tops people are gonna die?

I am not REMOTELY panicking, nor do I fear my own death.

But I am not a numpty who thinks this is trivial. Explain exactly why this couldn’t get worse and worse and worse.

The spread is exponential


3x3x3x3x3 is 241 but limit transmission to 2 and 2x2x2x2x2 is just 32, then 64 then 192

The 3 case by comparison would be 2,169 times, 11 times worse.

Epidemiologists say that without severe lockdown China would by now have passed 9 Million cases

THAT is why we are restricting commerce, travel, public events

[Snowball]

I thought people were joking about Snowball and his stats in this thread......

Dear lord.

This is the perfect case for stats. Stats are facts. In yer face facts.

About a million times better than people bitching that every government
on the planet has gone mad (but they know better)

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics"

Oh a QUOTE! MUST be true.

[Millsy]

Can I suggest we start a separate thread for lay stat bashing / panic/ anxiety and leave this for the HNA community to use to discuss coronavirus and its implications in a calm sensible way?

Mods?

[andrew1957]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

[SCIAG]

The issue with speculating about the number of people killed by the economic impact is that this is the first situation of its kind for over a century. We have no idea how quickly the economy will recover. 600,000 certain deaths avoided is probably worth a risk of a larger number of deaths.

The 2008 recession is thought to have led to around 120,000 deaths in this country. Given the different government response to this downturn, I think we’re probably looking at a lower number.

[RoyalBlue]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

F*ck me! I can only think you just aren't bothering to listen properly. This is really serious shit. It's not just hitting & killing the elderly, far from it. Sadly that wasn't made clear at the outset. Had it been, we might see far less pig ignorant, selfish conduct from a section of the younger community e.g. drinking in the pubs until midnight on Thursday and now arranging house parties!

If you're only bothered about the f*cking economy, you need to wake up, listen to the experts and front line health staff and realise that the economic effects of failing to bring Coronavirus under some form of control will be far, far worse than the effects of the current, probably inadequate, measures being taken.

[RoyalBlue]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Perhaps you'd care to put forward all your loved ones to help with that 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19. Yes, it's going to take a massive toll on the economy (makes you wonder why the Government are still allowing construction workers to work in close proximity using far from hygienic rest facilities whilst pissing Billions away on HS2) but it will eventually recover and personally I think life, even in really hard economic times, is better than death.

[John Madejski's Wallet]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

Just shows that people are pricks for not taking flu seriously

If one thing comes from pandemic, hopefully its a healthy respect for the flu (and every other "mild" illness that kills a fukk-load of people)

[Jagermesiter1871]

You cant compare it to flu. I did at first, I didnt understand. If someone who has underlying health conditions gets this its curtains whatever their age.

I'm pretty sure no 18 year old has died from a bout of the flu.

I've never had flu but I'm shitscared of this thing. Seeing as I have a heart scan for a problem that might be there which was scheduled for 6th April (can say that probably isnt happening) I may get one of these dreaded letters which says I wont be seeing anything till June

Don't think this is true. Doesn't it appear to be age + underlying health issue? At your age even and with a heart issue I think the stats are its very unlikely you'll die. Isn't it 0.2% under 40? And I would assume that 0.2% did have health issues but more than likely more respiratory/cancer immunosuppression therapy drugs. Happy to listen to any other information mind.

Still even being hospitalised won't be fun.

Although I agree with your sentiments that we should all be inside and the majority seem like oxf*rd idiots.

[Hound]

state of play:

flu deaths this winter (so far) = 109,000 (no lock down, no panic and happens every year)
Corona virus deaths (so far) = 14,700 (lock down, massive panic, destroying world economy, one off event)

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Is it 600k extra deaths? What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

Again trying not to comment on the rights or wrongs, but generally interested

[Uke]

What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

100%

[Hound]

What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

100%

yea obvs. this year I mean

[andrew1957]

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Is it 600k extra deaths? What is the overlap to people who would have died anyway?

Again trying not to comment on the rights or wrongs, but generally interested

I think 600,000 is the worst case estimate of "additional" deaths (as I understand it additional deaths are estimated to be somewhere between 20,000 and 600,000 for the UK. A Government adviser the other day on the news said that 20,000 would be a very good outcome). To put this into perspective slightly in excess of 600,000 die each year in the UK and so the worst case scenario would be a doubling of deaths for one year. But as you say in reality there are unlikely to be anywhere near 600,000 extra deaths as many of those dying of COVID-19 would have died within the next year of other health issues anyway and so would be within the normal 600,000. I don't think there is any way of accurately mapping overlap.

[andrew1957]

+1

Not worth the recession that’s coming, people are stupid.

I fear you are right. Frankly an extra 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19 could well pale into insignificance if huge number die in the next decade as a result of economic hardship caused by the now almost certain depression that will result from the close down. Stock markets have plummeted more than 30-35% already, at a faster rate than they fell in 1929!

Approximately 150,000 people die EVERY DAY in the world and yet we have virtually shut down the global economy for 10,000 or so COVID-19 deaths - many of whom were older people who were already extremely ill in hospitals - which have become a hot bed of infection.

I appreciate that Governments have an incredibly difficult job right now and they are acting as they are because of the levels of hysteria amongst their populations who largely think that they have a divine right to live to 100 years of age. Admittedly COVID-19 is awful, but the economic repercussions of the actions being taken today could be far worse than if we let the virus do its worse.

Perhaps you'd care to put forward all your loved ones to help with that 600,000 or so UK deaths from COVID-19. Yes, it's going to take a massive toll on the economy (makes you wonder why the Government are still allowing construction workers to work in close proximity using far from hygienic rest facilities whilst pissing Billions away on HS2) but it will eventually recover and personally I think life, even in really hard economic times, is better than death.

I am fully aware of the risks as I am going to have to carry on working in a necessary profession. I cannot hide away and wait for this to pass. I have already discussed with my family what we will do if one of us gets seriously ill and we have agreed to stay home and die there if necessary, as going to hospital will not be a viable option within the next couple of weeks. The Government policy is not to stop COVID-19 but only slow it. All of us are very likely to exposed to it over the next couple of years and so any lock down only postpones the inevitable unless a vaccine is developed incredibly quickly - which all the experts say is very unlikely.

My concern is whether a lock down to "flatten the hump" is worth the economic issues that are likely to follow which could cause far more deaths in the long run. But to be fair I do feel sorry for Governments in these days - as they have impossible decisions to make. The UK Government initially took my position and were going to let the virus work through the population to give us herd immunity, but in the last two weeks they have about turned because of the pressure to act. We will only know a year or two away which route we should have taken.