BFTG Wednesday (A)

[URZZZZ]

I’ll not be worrying about PPG just now.

Me neither, and those preoccupied with it is because of 'other' reasons.
Bottom line right now is to stay up, regardless of how many points we accomplish it with.
For example, 15 games left. Even if we draw them all (ha, 0-0's?), it would give us 41 points. (Or combo of wins, draws, losses that gets us 15 points). With our goal difference, not convinced Rovrum will get to 42 points with their run-in.
Yes, would obv much prefer if we stayed up having won all 15 games, but still.
#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

I'm getting tired of your constant childish insinuations.

The best way of judging whether we're likely to stay up is how many points we're picking up. Not only that, but how you finish the season is supposed to be a strong indication of how you will perform the following year. So limping to safety thanks to others failure is a good sign of being in the same place this time next year.

Something I would have thought none of us want.

I'm not sure about that, look at Bristol, Norwich and Leeds, they all finished last year really poorly, but are flying high so far this season. Then teams like Brentford and Millwall who were flying towards the end of last season have really struggled this season. I'd put it down more to a strong solid pre season rather than how you end the season before personally

[Denver Royal]

Me neither, and those preoccupied with it is because of 'other' reasons.
Bottom line right now is to stay up, regardless of how many points we accomplish it with.
For example, 15 games left. Even if we draw them all (ha, 0-0's?), it would give us 41 points. (Or combo of wins, draws, losses that gets us 15 points). With our goal difference, not convinced Rovrum will get to 42 points with their run-in.
Yes, would obv much prefer if we stayed up having won all 15 games, but still.
#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

I'm getting tired of your constant childish insinuations.
The best way of judging whether we're likely to stay up is how many points we're picking up. Not only that, but how you finish the season is supposed to be a strong indication of how you will perform the following year. So limping to safety thanks to others failure is a good sign of being in the same place this time next year.
Something I would have thought none of us want.

I'm not sure about that, look at Bristol, Norwich and Leeds, they all finished last year really poorly, but are flying high so far this season. Then teams like Brentford and Millwall who were flying towards the end of last season have really struggled this season. I'd put it down more to a strong solid pre season rather than how you end the season before personally

Well said, and Birmingham and Hull are on the fringes of that first group, too.

[Hound]

I'm getting tired of your constant childish insinuations.
The best way of judging whether we're likely to stay up is how many points we're picking up. Not only that, but how you finish the season is supposed to be a strong indication of how you will perform the following year. So limping to safety thanks to others failure is a good sign of being in the same place this time next year.
Something I would have thought none of us want.

I'm not sure about that, look at Bristol, Norwich and Leeds, they all finished last year really poorly, but are flying high so far this season. Then teams like Brentford and Millwall who were flying towards the end of last season have really struggled this season. I'd put it down more to a strong solid pre season rather than how you end the season before personally

Well said, and Birmingham and Hull are on the fringes of that first group, too.

Well Hull won 2 and drew 2 of their last 4, scoring 12 goals in the process, and including away trips to Wolves and Brentford. Birmingham won 3 of their last 6. Both were relatively strong ends to the season

Norwich, Leeds and Brizzle didn't finish the season really poorly, though not especially brilliantly either with 2 wins in 6 each I think having a quick scan through, so maybe not ideal examples.

Brentford started this season very strongly before everyone's mate Dean Smith decided to up sticks

Its certainly not a guarantee of a good season next time out, but it would certainly won't harm the team. I think there was some actual proper stats somewhere showing its quite important to how the next season pans out

[Snowflake Royal]

I'm not sure about that, look at Bristol, Norwich and Leeds, they all finished last year really poorly, but are flying high so far this season. Then teams like Brentford and Millwall who were flying towards the end of last season have really struggled this season. I'd put it down more to a strong solid pre season rather than how you end the season before personally

Well said, and Birmingham and Hull are on the fringes of that first group, too.

Well Hull won 2 and drew 2 of their last 4, scoring 12 goals in the process, and including away trips to Wolves and Brentford. Birmingham won 3 of their last 6. Both were relatively strong ends to the season

Norwich, Leeds and Brizzle didn't finish the season really poorly, though not especially brilliantly either with 2 wins in 6 each I think having a quick scan through, so maybe not ideal examples.

Brentford started this season very strongly before everyone's mate Dean Smith decided to up sticks

Its certainly not a guarantee of a good season next time out, but it would certainly won't harm the team. I think there was some actual proper stats somewhere showing its quite important to how the next season pans out

Yeah, it's obviously not a guarantee of anything, that's not how stats and trends work. I don't recall seeing the data and analysis myself, but I remember someone reasonably reliable referencing it. And it makes a lot of sense to me.

I can only think of two candidate seasons for us finishing reasonably well in years. And one of them was the last time we got promoted!

I think we finished well to make the POs under Stam but I'm not positive.

So that would be two seasons from about six since relegation it doesn't hold up for in our case. That's reasonably reliable from a very small data set.

[URZZZZ]

Well said, and Birmingham and Hull are on the fringes of that first group, too.

Well Hull won 2 and drew 2 of their last 4, scoring 12 goals in the process, and including away trips to Wolves and Brentford. Birmingham won 3 of their last 6. Both were relatively strong ends to the season

Norwich, Leeds and Brizzle didn't finish the season really poorly, though not especially brilliantly either with 2 wins in 6 each I think having a quick scan through, so maybe not ideal examples.

Brentford started this season very strongly before everyone's mate Dean Smith decided to up sticks

Its certainly not a guarantee of a good season next time out, but it would certainly won't harm the team. I think there was some actual proper stats somewhere showing its quite important to how the next season pans out

Yeah, it's obviously not a guarantee of anything, that's not how stats and trends work. I don't recall seeing the data and analysis myself, but I remember someone reasonably reliable referencing it. And it makes a lot of sense to me.

I can only think of two candidate seasons for us finishing reasonably well in years. And one of them was the last time we got promoted!

I think we finished well to make the POs under Stam but I'm not positive.

So that would be two seasons from about six since relegation it doesn't hold up for in our case. That's reasonably reliable from a very small data set.

Ended the playoff season well, we were the "inform team", you could attribute the poor season last year to a playoff hangover but statistically speaking, it hasn't really affected too many teams in the last 5/6 years losing the playoff final

I think a lot of it depends on the changes in the squad from one season to the next. We ended the 2009/10 and 2010/11 season on fire but that was maintaining pretty much the same squad so they could carry their confidence through. But, for example we completely restructured strangely after the 16/17 season so IMO that season had very limited bearings on the season after

[Denver Royal]

Last Summer, quite a few in here predicted Top 10 this season, regardless of how/where we finished last season.

As I've said, I'd much prefer (for various reasons ) to finish with a flourish. So would the players, the manager, etc.

If we don't, but we stay up anyway, we take it on board and go to work from there accordingly re. Summer window etc.

[Snowflake Royal]

Last Summer, quite a few in here predicted Top 10 this season, regardless of how/where we finished last season.

As I've said, I'd much prefer (for various reasons ) to finish with a flourish. So would the players, the manager, etc.

If we don't, but we stay up anyway, we take it on board and go to work from there accordingly re. Summer window etc.

There's some comedy gold in those season prediction threads

Reading4eva getting in a huff at being called stupid for predicting a bottom three of Hull, Sheff U and Villa.

I got three out of four last years strugglers I named improving right. Shame I was wrong about us.

[Snowball]

Me neither, and those preoccupied with it is because of 'other' reasons.
Bottom line right now is to stay up, regardless of how many points we accomplish it with.
For example, 15 games left. Even if we draw them all (ha, 0-0's?), it would give us 41 points. (Or combo of wins, draws, losses that gets us 15 points). With our goal difference, not convinced Rovrum will get to 42 points with their run-in.
Yes, would obv much prefer if we stayed up having won all 15 games, but still.
#1 priority, stay up, end of. Then work on offence, personnel, etc, over the Summer.

I'm getting tired of your constant childish insinuations.

The best way of judging whether we're likely to stay up is how many points we're picking up. Not only that, but how you finish the season is supposed to be a strong indication of how you will perform the following year. So limping to safety thanks to others failure is a good sign of being in the same place this time next year.

Something I would have thought none of us want.

I'm not sure about that, look at Bristol, Norwich and Leeds, they all finished last year really poorly, but are flying high so far this season. Then teams like Brentford and Millwall who were flying towards the end of last season have really struggled this season. I'd put it down more to a strong solid pre season rather than how you end the season before personally

Absolutely, and Brighton were promoted the season after finishing just about the drop zone

[Snowball]

Last Summer, quite a few in here predicted Top 10 this season, regardless of how/where we finished last season.

As I've said, I'd much prefer (for various reasons ) to finish with a flourish. So would the players, the manager, etc.

If we don't, but we stay up anyway, we take it on board and go to work from there accordingly re. Summer window etc.

There's some comedy gold in those season prediction threads

Reading4eva getting in a huff at being called stupid for predicting a bottom three of Hull, Sheff U and Villa.

I got three out of four last years strugglers I named improving right. Shame I was wrong about us.

Made me dig up my own thoughts

My Attempt

I think at least two of the sides coming down will be strong all season.
I think Wigan will be top half and might flirt with sixth.

I think Leeds will stop being a basket-case and stake its claim for the big time again.

I suspect Forest's spending will get them top six at least.

I only see four relegation candidates, but of course one team will massively under-perform and another over-perform. Ipswich might be the first, Bristol the latter.

That's three pretty decent predictions so far!

I've also posted my best-worst position

01 01-02 Stoke --------(shocker, in 17th)
02 01-02 West Brom (currently 4th)

03 03-07 Leeds -----(currently 2nd)
04 02-08 Forest ----- (currently 9th)
05 02-08 Boro --------- (smack on ATM, currently 5th)
06 04-09 Derby -------- (currently 7th)

07 05-14 Norwich -------- (currently top)


08 06-10 Preston (14)
09 06-12 Brentford (18 - lost a great manager!)
10 06-14 Wigan (19)

11 06-18 Swansea ---- ATM right on the money!
12 07-16 Millwall ----- (20)
13 09-18 Hull ----------(12)
14 08-16 Wednesday ---- (close ATM - 16th)

15 09-17 Bristol ------ pegged about right but then they won 8/8 or something!

16 09-18 Reading (I think we will finish 18-19-20 so not too far off)

17 08-21 Blackburn (13)
18 11-19 Ipswich Predicted a poor season but also said (above) they might seriously underperform)

19 10-20 Villa ---- (10)
20 11-20 Sheffield Utd ----- spectacularly wrong - a very good side in 3rd ATM

21 18-22 QPR ---- (15th)

22 20-23 Birmingham (Yeah they are higher - by cheating - 8th)

23 20-24 Bolton - - - Yay!

24 21-24 Rotherham (Think they will be 22nd by season's end)

[Royal Rother]

I think you are all very clever.

[Zip]

So Gomes has recruited better.

Yes it looks that way but results have yet to improve.

[Hound]

I do remember saying I thinks sheff utd would go down. Can’t really remember much else

[Snowball]

I do remember saying I thinks sheff utd would go down. Can’t really remember much else

I'm sure you said Reading would have a terrible start with only two points
from their first six games, then settle at about a point a game for half a season.
sack the manager, turn it slowly round, and only get
clear of the bottom three with about ten games to go...

(cough)

[TiagoIlori]

definitely not too late

If we are correct in thinking Ipswich and Bolton are likely down (obvs a big assumption but nothing to suggest otherwise), then its a straight shoot out between us and Rotherham, No real excuse to lose that one looking at the comparative squads etc

Lets hope not, I can see stoke and Wigan getting into trouble if we can somehow put together some results, Millwall should be fine with their home seeming to be a fortress. My biggest worry is that I’m too used to us drawing those crucial games we have to be winning. Not beaten any of the 3 sides around us this season, yet drawn 3.

[Denver Royal]

So Gomes has recruited better.

Well, and he hasn't even bought a single player yet. We all know the squad had (and still has) issues. He only got here in Dec, and a few rushed loans arranged in Jan (however good they may be, and hopefully they are) isn't going to solve everything. When you take over a team that's in the Bottom 3 there's a lot to do and get right. He's started to clear some dead wood, and at the very least he's going to need a full Summer window, a full pre-season, pre-season tours. etc, (which was afforded the previous managers).

[Snowflake Royal]

So Gomes has recruited better.

Well, and he hasn't even bought a single player yet. We all know the squad had (and still has) issues. He only got here in Dec, and a few rushed loans arranged in Jan (however good they may be, and hopefully they are) isn't going to solve everything. When you take over a team that's in the Bottom 3 there's a lot to do and get right. He's started to clear some dead wood, and at the very least he's going to need a full Summer window, a full pre-season, pre-season tours. etc, (which was afforded the previous managers).

You can't call Gomes recruitment good yet (early signs certainly positive), there was a lot of positive talk about many of the last transfer windows at the time and shortly after.

Plenty of people were happy with Clement's window in the summer at the time.

Time is required to judge it. Miazga seems great, but a couple of goal conceding errors leading to us dropping points and that perception could quickly change.

I often think that it's the premature celebration of success in anyone new that often causes a disproportionate backlash of perceived failure if early promise fades or isn't delivered upon.

[Lower West]

Plenty of people were happy with Clement's window in the summer at the time.

On paper filled the holes. In reality didn't work out. As many transfers dont. Still no experienced permanent backbone to the team. Long road ahead yet potentially.

These loan recruits are putting themselves in the shop window.

[Nameless]

Plenty of people were happy with Clement's window in the summer at the time.

On paper filled the holes. In reality didn't work out. As many transfers dont. Still no experienced permanent backbone to the team. Long road ahead yet potentially.

These loan recruits are putting themselves in the shop window.

I agree with you
Smart recruitment in January, brought in players with excellent motivation to perform without leaving ourselves exposed if things don’t work
Summer will give us the chance to put together a stronger mix of our own youngsters and new comers.
Would hope we never have any permanent signings, imagine if we were stuck with a 70 year old Myler having given him a life time contract ! 3 year deals are plenty long enough.

[Kitsondinho]

Plenty of people were happy with Clement's window in the summer at the time.

On paper filled the holes. In reality didn't work out. As many transfers dont. Still no experienced permanent backbone to the team. Long road ahead yet potentially.

These loan recruits are putting themselves in the shop window.

Indeed. Works out well for all concerned, especially if we stay up. Hopefully those we’ve sent out on loan get sold and we can properly overhaul this squad.

[Snowflake Royal]

Plenty of people were happy with Clement's window in the summer at the time.

On paper filled the holes. In reality didn't work out. As many transfers dont. Still no experienced permanent backbone to the team. Long road ahead yet potentially.

These loan recruits are putting themselves in the shop window.

Indeed. Works out well for all concerned, especially if we stay up. Hopefully those we’ve sent out on loan get sold and we can properly overhaul this squad.

Hopefully not all of them. I'd quite like to see more of Osho and Nova in the first team to name but two.