Coronavirus outbreak

[Cape Town Royal]

Please everyone be respectful in times like this and let's not mention the war.

I agree, but to be fair they did do a lot of medical research in the early 1940's...

[Cape Town Royal]

Germany has 3 X more ICU beds per head of population than the UK also

Is that because they put towels on them ?

Shameful chuckle.

Apologies from me too... I did have a little giggle at that one...

[Cape Town Royal]

[quote="Snowball"][quote="Jagermesiter1871"]So really from today on wards we should see some impact of the lock down in Italy?

Yes, what's scary though as Italy might start to slow look at the numbers coming out of Spain (Spanish death rate yesterday was not far off Italy's) and the US...

Also slightly concerned about countries with high populations with large poor populations living in close proximity to each other, over here in Asia, such as Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines and then further afield like Pakistan, Brazil, Mexico and India.. All their numbers are starting to increase and if it took off in those countries you could see high death rates of those infected...

Over here in Japan, still life continues minimal visible impact. The Olymoics have rightly been postponed, but other things are starting to re-open. For example the private art gallery my wife works in took the decision two days ago to actually opening its new exhibition next week which she is worried about especially as its in Arashiyama, Kyoto which is a magnet for tourists. The only good thing at the moment is there aren't that many here... But given that people are freely moving around you wonder if the opening of places like that and others will lead to an increase in infections..

For me when I am in the supermarket I get a few looks as a westerner and one or two people go to turn into the aisle I am in, look at me and then dart off to a different one, which is quite amusing. Its mainly old people and the Japanese are naturally cautious, but its interesting being a western looking foreigner here at the moment and watching the different reactions that brings out in people..

Stay healthy everyone...

[BR0B0T]

Germany has had a far more liberal testing regime than the UK

In the UK you could get tests if

You were returning from a Level 1 danger area
You were returning from a Level 2 danger area and had system
You had had contact with a known Coronavirus carrier

Anyone who has been through the 111 triage system will know
that you have to get through two screening levels just to be
allowed to talk to a clinician who rings you.

Then, IF the clinician deems you a near-enough possible s/he
arranges for the nearest testing hospital to ring YOU and set
a fixed appointment. Your age/vulnerability is considered

So, basically they are (or were) blocking people with sniffles
many of which may well have been suffering mild symptoms
of Covid-19.

The easier you make it for people to take the tests the more likely
you will get hits from younger people and people with mild Covid

They age-bracket for German cases is a lot lower than the UK, hence
a lower death rate.

I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as
other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is
likely to approach .5 to 1%

why are you writing like that? it is very odd.

What, in English?

I used to write like that because it's easier to read...however on mobile it formats really weirdly don't know if that's still the case!

looks more like(dots replaced by space):


I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as..........................................................................other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is.................................................................likely to approach .5 to 1%.........................................................I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as................................................................other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is...........................................................likely to approach .5 to 1%

[Snowball]

why are you writing like that? it is very odd.

What, in English?

I used to write like that because it's easier to read...however on mobile it formats really weirdly don't know if that's still the case!

looks more like(dots replaced by space):


I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as..........................................................................other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is.................................................................likely to approach .5 to 1%.........................................................I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as................................................................other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is...........................................................likely to approach .5 to 1%

Ah, I rarely look at HobNob on my phone

Also, I find it hard to read a very wide piece of writing like this, for example, where the words go all the way across the screen, and seem to fill every space. Maybe it's how my mind works or how I deal with things spatially, but this, for example, I struggle to read, you see?

[Snowball]

Confirmed cases should go through 470,000 today, 500,000 tomorrow (520-530K)

Deaths should pass 20,000 today

And, as yet, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Africa are barely registering.

Reading on SARS. The final death-rate was twice what they thought it was.

[BR0B0T]

What, in English?

I used to write like that because it's easier to read...however on mobile it formats really weirdly don't know if that's still the case!

looks more like(dots replaced by space):


I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as..........................................................................other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is.................................................................likely to approach .5 to 1%.........................................................I have a contact in Leipzig who says their media is saying the same as................................................................other countries: namely that the death rate in the wider population is...........................................................likely to approach .5 to 1%

Ah, I rarely look at HobNob on my phone

Also, I find it hard to read a very wide piece of writing like this, for example, where the words go all the way across the screen, and seem to fill every space. Maybe it's how my mind works or how I deal with things spatially, but this, for example, I struggle to read, you see?

I also don't like reading like that for the same reason

...hence I post like this for posts with less information

but revert to widescreen for longer posts!

[BR0B0T]

just noticed you do the same thing in the post above

[Snowball]

just noticed you do the same thing in the post above

This

Confirmed cases should go through 470,000 today, 500,000 tomorrow (520-530K)

Deaths should pass 20,000 today

And, as yet, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Africa are barely registering.

Reading on SARS. The final death-rate was twice what they thought it was.

ABOVE SEEMS NATURAL. FOUR SEPARATE PARAGRAPHS

Confirmed cases should go through 470,000 today, 500,000 tomorrow (520-530K). Deaths should pass 20,000 today. And, as yet, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Africa are barely registering. Reading on SARS. The final death-rate was twice what they thought it was.

THAT (ABOVE, italics) FEELS WEIRD


Will try to comply!

[Snowball]

As some have pointed out the confirmed cases to deaths ratio is hard to read. Just read on a serious site how there is a very good algorithm to see the true ("hospital") death-rate for CCs.

You take the cumulative RECOVERED number plus the cumulative DIED number = "Resolved Cases". This morning that is 128,169.

You then scan back for the nearest number. On 12th March the cumulative cases were 128,343. That comes close to the 14-Day progress of the disease. You then compare the cumulative deaths to the cumulative cases for that date.

12-Mar 128,343 Cases

25-Mar 128,169 Resolved Cases (Recovered and Deaths)

25-Mar 18,944 Total Dead

18,944/128,343 is 14.76% and this tallies with the clinician estimates of 15%. Phrased differently. Serious cases often requiring hospital care result in 15% deaths. As the recent numbers become larger, especially when they begin to even out (totals still accumulating but not increasing exponentially), this algorithm grows in accuracy.

If 15% becomes "where it's at" then in about 13 days time the cumulative total deaths should be 425,288 * .15 = 63,793 Approx April 8th.

[Snowball]

just tried the above algorithm for the data I have

At the beginning of today the death total was 18,800 and is likely to reach 20,000 by midnight GMT. The algorithm predicts 18,943 cumulative deaths on 25-March. I would presume that this is provided some countries don't have a health service collapse.

EDIT

When I posted these I thought some of the figures looked crazy-high but it looks like the figures are 3,000 or so UNDER

12-Mar 128,343.00 - - - 25-Mar 18,943 Deaths: Actual Deaths 21,148

13-Mar 137,445.00 - - - 26-Mar 20,287 (24,058) (+3,829)
14-Mar 156,062.00 - - - 27-Mar 23,035 (27,255) (+4,190)
15-Mar 162,687.00 - - - 28-Mar 24,013 (30,845) (+6,832)
16-Mar 181,377.00 - - - 29-Mar 26,771 (33,908) (+7,137)
17-Mar 196,639.00 - - - 30-Mar 29,024 (37,126 @ 22:06)) (+8,102)
18-Mar 214,894.00 - - - 31-Mar 31,718 ..................... So 31st should hit 40,800
19-Mar 242,191.00 - - - 01-Apr 35,747
20-Mar 271,629.00 - - - 02-Apr 40,092
21-Mar 304,526.00 - - - 03-Apr 44,948
22-Mar 332,577.00 - - - 04-Apr 49,088
23-Mar 375,458.00 - - - 05-Apr 55,418
24-Mar 420,752.00 - - - 06-Apr 62,103

The multiplier can be made more accurate as numbers increase. This was 14.67% but think 15% and it's very accurate.

EDIT = Now over 18% and climbing.

15%, the clinician's estimate gives a cumulative death toll today of 19,251. Figures are slightly muted because the Chinese figures were producing a lower death rate (some think the figures are massaged down). As the non-Chinese total increases as a proportion, the 15% will rise to 16% and beyond. It would be interesting to try the algorithm with Chinese numbers removed.

[Snowball]

Predicting Cumulative Deaths (including China's 3,281)
Algorithm based on Non-China Figures

PROJECTED DEATHS

18,943 - - - - 18,045 - - - - 25-Mar - - - ( 17,939
20,287 - - - - 20,807 - - - - 26-Mar - - - (20,821
23,035 - - - - 26,488 - - - - 27-Mar - - - (27,000 estimate
24,013 - - - - 28,509 - - - - 28-Mar
26,771 - - - - 33,906 - - - - 29-Mar
29,024 - - - - 38,562 - - - - 30-Mar
31,718 - - - - 44,132 - - - - 31-Mar

The Match-point was 12.5 days ago (a tad early) which might explain the slightly low 18,045 prediction

Column 1 is algorithm's prediction based on all figures including China

Column 2 is algorithm's prediction based on non-China figures but adding 3,281 Chinese deaths

Please don't attack me for "speculation". The algorithm predicts these numbers. If I posted after the event and the predictions were accurate I would be accused of doctoring. I hope these estimates of total death proof far too pessimistic. We shall see.

I can only hope that the various lockdowns will attenuate these figures.

[Millsy]

People talk about projected deaths, but noone talks about projectOR deaths.

How many people die from projectors falling off the ceiling and landing on their heads?

I have a large 4K Epson projector hanging right up above where I sit on my sofa.

That's a much bigger threat to me than corona. I'm thinking I need to do the opposite of self isolate.

[Snowball]

So really from today on wards we should see some impact of the lock down in Italy?

Even a relatively unstrict lockdown should have a decent impact on numbers, assuming a majority had some level of isolation i.e just going to supermarket and working from home.

It's only a few days, but, while deaths are rising (infections 18 days ago) there has been a small slowing of new infections. But too early to say, I'd've thought

Last four days

793
650 Drop 1
602 Drop 2 looking promising
743, ah...

If, say we have 599 or better tomorrow, maybe we can start to think the lockdown is working

Last FIVE days

793
650 Drop 1
602 Drop 2 looking promising
743, ah...
683 (25th)

So a drop compared to Tuesday but still higher than Sunday and Monday. SLOWING maybe, flattening, possibly, but still not good figures.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Certainly flattened. I think that is good news other than it still being a horrific number.

[Snowball]

Certainly flattened. I think that is good news other than it still being a horrific number.

Looking that way but not yet certain IMO, not with two days higher than Sunday-Monday

[Royals and Racers]

Shameful chuckle.

Cheers Hendo. I was just trying to bring a tiny bit of humour to, I know, what is a horrible and serious situation.

Absolutely, nothing wrong with a bit of light humour to brighten up these dark days.

At last a live event. sky sports are broadcasting the world origami championships this month- it`s on paper view !!!!

[krapmle]

quite frankly its all a load of bollocks

deaths this winter from flu = 112,934

say what you want snowball, you have a long way to go.

[Jagermesiter1871]

quite frankly its all a load of bollocks

deaths this winter from flu = 112,934

say what you want snowball, you have a long way to go.

Why do you keep comparing it to winter flu?

deaths last year from stabbings = 90.

See its very dangerous. /s

[krapmle]

because we ignore hundreds of thousands of deaths per year. Its very simple.
for this nonsense which will not overtake flu we destroy the world economy which will kill even more than covoid.

3 million died from pneumonia last year, where is the lockdown, where is the panic?

Only one number is important, deaths