THE BETTING THREAD

[Pepe the Horseman]

After my Orient spot on Friday, todays 'Winston's Winners' are Port Vale & Forest Green

Port Vale are in 16th and playing away to Harrogate in 15th. PV are on a run of 4 successive wins incl beating 7th place Newport and 8th Place Exeter. Harrogate have lost 3 and drawn 1 of the last 4 and that includes losing to 23rd place Southend and the draw was against 20th place Walsall

Harrogate 6/4
Port Vale 9/5

Forest Green in 5th play at home to Salford. both teams in pretty poor form but FG's form currently sits in blip territory whereas Salford have been on the slide for a while now. FG just 2 points off of an automatic spot too

Forest Green 17/10
Salford 8/5

Orient are 5/4 at home to out of form Walsall, for a nice treb.

[Hendo]

On it.

19.01/1

[Winston Biscuit]

Forest Green
Port Vale
Rotherham
Hull
20/1

Ourselves
Orient
Pompey
7.35/1

[Zammo]

Anyone involved (or been involved) with Football Index ?

Football Index is a betting platform that uses the stock market model to allow sports fans to invest in players.

It was set up in 2015, inviting willing members of the public to buy imaginary "shares" in footballers with rewards – in the form of "dividends" – paid out based on player performance in real time.

The firm makes money by "minting" shares and charging a 2% commission on buying and selling on its platform. It has around half a million registered 'traders' – many of whom are ordinary members of the public.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56401707

Mate of mine was involved up to £30k about 12 months ago

Around £90million is understood to have been lost in seven days.

"My portfolio worth dropped from £23,000 to £1,500 in minutes,”

Football Index faced huge criticism for the decision. The firm temporarily suspended its twitter account stating some staff members had received death threats.

[BR0B0T]

Anyone involved (or been involved) with Football Index ?

Football Index is a betting platform that uses the stock market model to allow sports fans to invest in players.

It was set up in 2015, inviting willing members of the public to buy imaginary "shares" in footballers with rewards – in the form of "dividends" – paid out based on player performance in real time.

The firm makes money by "minting" shares and charging a 2% commission on buying and selling on its platform. It has around half a million registered 'traders' – many of whom are ordinary members of the public.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56401707

Mate of mine was involved up to £30k about 12 months ago

Around £90million is understood to have been lost in seven days.

"My portfolio worth dropped from £23,000 to £1,500 in minutes,”

Football Index faced huge criticism for the decision. The firm temporarily suspended its twitter account stating some staff members had received death threats.

I actually quite liked the idea but couldn't figure out how it could work with no underlying asset

An element of liking it was...I thought I'd be able to manipulate it with twitterbots etc

[Winston Biscuit]

Ourselves
Orient
Pompey
7.35/1

Orient with zero shots on target and zero shots off target

[URZZZZ]

Had a £5 accumulator on Wednesday to beat Cardiff, West Ham to beat Wolves and a double chance on Palace to win/draw to win £80

There’s me being an idiot again cashing out for the original stake once Everton had gone one up as they were missing several decent chances. Frustrating to say the least!

[Simmops]

Had a £5 accumulator on Wednesday to beat Cardiff, West Ham to beat Wolves and a double chance on Palace to win/draw to win £80

There’s me being an idiot again cashing out for the original stake once Everton had gone one up as they were missing several decent chances. Frustrating to say the least!

Never ever cash out. It always ends badly. Only do it if you got a couple hundred or more winnings. Think ive had 1 time where a cash out has ever helped me out

[Winston Biscuit]

I generally tend to cash out and it does me more than fine. My recent run of late losses would have been fixed had I cashed out

[URZZZZ]

I generally tend to cash out and it does me more than fine. My recent run of late losses would have been fixed had I cashed out

Yeah, generally is the better option, particularly at this stage of the season where anything really can happen, i.e Wednesday winning 5-0!

Think one of the sites does a partial cash out which is a good idea - can split it any way you want

[Winston Biscuit]

I never really see the point in leaving it until the end to get the full amount when 80-90% is being offered with 10 minutes to to, the perdiod of football where most goals are scored.

I cashed out on 81 minutes at the weekend for £86 when £105 was the full offer. more than happy to skip a nervy and unpredictable 15 minutes of football to guarantee I get most of my winnings

[URZZZZ]

I never really see the point in leaving it until the end to get the full amount when 80-90% is being offered with 10 minutes to to, the perdiod of football where most goals are scored.

I cashed out on 81 minutes at the weekend for £86 when £105 was the full offer. more than happy to skip a nervy and unpredictable 15 minutes of football to guarantee I get most of my winnings

Agreed but for example would you take a cash out of 40/50% if, let’s say you did a 6 fold accumulator, 5 teams were winning and 1 was drawing?
That’s where it gets a bit harder

I did have a scenario like yours a couple of months back, I was on for something like £100 and with 10/15 to go, I had all 6 in but they didn’t offer a cash out option for that entire time and naturally, there was an equalising goal in the last minute of the game

[Simmops]

I never really see the point in leaving it until the end to get the full amount when 80-90% is being offered with 10 minutes to to, the perdiod of football where most goals are scored.

I cashed out on 81 minutes at the weekend for £86 when £105 was the full offer. more than happy to skip a nervy and unpredictable 15 minutes of football to guarantee I get most of my winnings

Agreed but for example would you take a cash out of 40/50% if, let’s say you did a 6 fold accumulator, 5 teams were winning and 1 was drawing?
That’s where it gets a bit harder

I did have a scenario like yours a couple of months back, I was on for something like £100 and with 10/15 to go, I had all 6 in but they didn’t offer a cash out option for that entire time and naturally, there was an equalising goal in the last minute of the game

I would never cash out in your scenario. In winstons I would if I get to 85 minutes or something.

[URZZZZ]

Currently on Q8 of Beat the Drop - after rushing through many questions today, now getting to the nervous stage as I’m two more correct questions off splitting it 50-50 and winning £125

Been doing well on the horse racing but they really are uneducated guesses, wondering if my luck will run out and I should just hold out and take my time

[Pepe the Horseman]

Currently on Q8 of Beat the Drop - after rushing through many questions today, now getting to the nervous stage as I’m two more correct questions off splitting it 50-50 and winning £125

Been doing well on the horse racing but they really are uneducated guesses, wondering if my luck will run out and I should just hold out and take my time

Yes. Take your time!

[BR0B0T]

I never really see the point in leaving it until the end to get the full amount when 80-90% is being offered with 10 minutes to to, the perdiod of football where most goals are scored.

I cashed out on 81 minutes at the weekend for £86 when £105 was the full offer. more than happy to skip a nervy and unpredictable 15 minutes of football to guarantee I get most of my winnings

because you are losing money by paying another 'spread' to the bookmaker

also over the long term, you would lose money cashing out based on avoiding nerves (rather than calculating 'value' at that moment in time)

[Winston Biscuit]

I never really see the point in leaving it until the end to get the full amount when 80-90% is being offered with 10 minutes to to, the perdiod of football where most goals are scored.

I cashed out on 81 minutes at the weekend for £86 when £105 was the full offer. more than happy to skip a nervy and unpredictable 15 minutes of football to guarantee I get most of my winnings

because you are losing money by paying another 'spread' to the bookmaker

also over the long term, you would lose money cashing out based on avoiding nerves (rather than calculating 'value' at that moment in time)

losing the opportunity of winning more money, rather than actually losing money, which makes all the diffo

how would you know that over the long term I would lose money? surely to know that you would have to know what bets I was doing, what minute I average my cash out on, how many late goals those teams generally score in the last x minutes that change results etc?

[BR0B0T]

I never really see the point in leaving it until the end to get the full amount when 80-90% is being offered with 10 minutes to to, the perdiod of football where most goals are scored.

I cashed out on 81 minutes at the weekend for £86 when £105 was the full offer. more than happy to skip a nervy and unpredictable 15 minutes of football to guarantee I get most of my winnings

because you are losing money by paying another 'spread' to the bookmaker

also over the long term, you would lose money cashing out based on avoiding nerves (rather than calculating 'value' at that moment in time)

losing the opportunity of winning more money, rather than actually losing money, which makes all the diffo

how would you know that over the long term I would lose money? surely to know that you would have to know what bets I was doing, what minute I average my cash out on, how many late goals those teams generally score in the last x minutes that change results etc?

Generic 'you'...

placing bet:
- you are paying a spread to the bookmaker i.e his expectation is greater than 100%
- you are also getting paid 9-1 on a 10-1 opportunity (numbers are for illustration)

in the long run, you will most likely lose

By cashing out you are repeating this process twice thus doubling your chance of losing

[URZZZZ]

Currently on Q8 of Beat the Drop - after rushing through many questions today, now getting to the nervous stage as I’m two more correct questions off splitting it 50-50 and winning £125

Been doing well on the horse racing but they really are uneducated guesses, wondering if my luck will run out and I should just hold out and take my time

Yes. Take your time!

Glad I did that as I would have lost out on the 16:35 Lingfield race!

Went for Juve to beat Napoli instead - which I guess is a risk in itself given their erratic form

[URZZZZ]

Currently on Q8 of Beat the Drop - after rushing through many questions today, now getting to the nervous stage as I’m two more correct questions off splitting it 50-50 and winning £125

Been doing well on the horse racing but they really are uneducated guesses, wondering if my luck will run out and I should just hold out and take my time

Yes. Take your time!

Glad I did that as I would have lost out on the 16:35 Lingfield race!

Went for Juve to beat Napoli instead - which I guess is a risk in itself given their erratic form

On 9 now!

Think I’m going to be safe (or boring ) and split it 50-50 each question, nice return of £65, needed after the Cheltenham week