THE BETTING THREAD

[RG30]

Very early bet on Declan Rice FG 35/1 (Betfair/PP). For a player who was on penalties for West Ham that is very chunky. Half the price everywhere else, would be surprised if he goes off that on Sunday.

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Arsenal (0.0) - 2.4 pick rating - 53.1% - 54.2%
Chelsea (-1.5) - 2.6 pick rating - 78.9% - 79.5%
Liverpool (-1.5) - 2.6 pick rating - 75.2% - 75.9%
Aston Villa (0.0) - 2.4 pick rating - 42.2% - 43.6%
Burnley FC (+0.5) - 2.8 pick rating - (draw 32.1% - 33.0%), (win 31.4%, 32.4%)
West Ham (0.0) - 2.3 pick rating - 45.2% - 46.5%

<team>, <pick_rating>, <book probability>, <AI Probability>

Pick rating is how much to bet i.e 2.6% of your bankroll. I based it on a modified version of the Kelly Criterion optimized by the model

[John Smith]

Very early bet on Declan Rice FG 35/1 (Betfair/PP). For a player who was on penalties for West Ham that is very chunky. Half the price everywhere else, would be surprised if he goes off that on Sunday.

Rice doesn't take penalties for West Ham

[Pepe the Horseman]

Rico Henry 2+ shots 9/1 and anytime scorer 22/1

[RG30]

Pepe FG free bet, will be on pens. Also done the Toney SOT boost.

Couple of bets flagged to me - Ben White MOTM 18/1 Hills. Done off Sky Comms, media narrative of his debut could work in his favour.

Also Frank Onyeka to be carded 5/2. DM carded in 11 of 39 starts last season for Midtjylland & in 12 of 32 in 2019/20. His & Brentford's 1st game in the EPL. Should be getting stuck in. Second bet stole off twitter.

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Friday
Arsenal - 2.4 pick rating

Saturday
Chelsea -1.5 - 2.6 pick rating
Liverpool -1.5 - 2.6 pick rating
Aston Villa 0.0 - 2.4 pick rating
Burnley FC +0.5 - 2.8 pick rating

Sunday
West Ham 0.0 - 2.3 pick rating

Pick rating = percentage of your bankroll to bet

[Winston Biscuit]

Everton, Barnsley, Lincoln, Salford. 14.4/1

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Friday
Arsenal - 2.4 pick rating

Saturday
Chelsea -1.5 - 2.6 pick rating
Liverpool -1.5 - 2.6 pick rating
Aston Villa 0.0 - 2.4 pick rating
Burnley FC +0.5 - 2.8 pick rating

Sunday
West Ham 0.0 - 2.3 pick rating

Pick rating = percentage of your bankroll to bet

week_one = -1.37
cum_sum = 98.63

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Liverpool......... -1.5, (2.10) - 2.9%.........82.9%, 83.4% EDIT
Brentford......... 0.0, (2.00) - 3.5%.........34.7%, 37.0%
Man United...... 0.0, (1.66) - 4.6%.........60.2%, 62.0%
Chelsea FC....... 0.0, (1.83) - 4.1%..........54.8%, 56.6%
Tottenham....... 0.0, (1.66) - 4.1%..........42.0%, 44.4%
Leicester City... 0.0, (2.05) - 3.6%..........35.5%, 37.8%

<Team>,<Handicap>,<Odds>,<Wager_size>....<Bookie_probability>, <AI_probaility>

Wager_size is based on the percentage of bankroll and uses Kelly Criterion optimized by the model

EDIT: handicap can only be a max of +/- 1.5
(i know it looks like after-timing)

[Simmops]

Think we've found brobut

[Pepe the Horseman]

With Citeh missing out on Kane, I'm going with Chelsea/Lukaku win/top scorer double at 9/1.

[RG30]

Shame Lukaku isn't on penalties but should bag 20+ minimum

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Man. City......... -1.5, (1.70) - 3.5%
West Ham....... -1.0, (2.05) - 4.6%
Leicester City... ....., (1.90) - 4.2%
Liverpool......... 0.0, (1.85) - 3.9%
Tottenham..... -1.0, (1.70) - 3.0%
Man United.... ....., (1.85) - 4.1%

[Donny Ironside]

Man. City......... -1.5, (1.70) - 3.5%
West Ham....... -1.0, (2.05) - 4.6%
Leicester City... ....., (1.90) - 4.2%
Liverpool......... 0.0, (1.85) - 3.9%
Tottenham..... -1.0, (1.70) - 3.0%
Man United.... ....., (1.85) - 4.1%

What do all of these numbers and %s mean?

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Man. City......... -1.5, (1.70) - 3.5%
West Ham....... -1.0, (2.05) - 4.6%
Leicester City... ....., (1.90) - 4.2%
Liverpool......... 0.0, (1.85) - 3.9%
Tottenham..... -1.0, (1.70) - 3.0%
Man United.... ....., (1.85) - 4.1%

What do all of these numbers and %s mean?

<Team>....<Handicap>, <Odds>, <Wager_size>

Wager_size is based on the percentage of bankroll and uses Kelly Criterion optimized by the model

[RG30]

Betfair Bet Builder - England to win, BTTS No 1/2. Basically getting the price on England to keep a clean sheet

[Winston Biscuit]

Burton, Swindon, Orient - 8/1

[Pepe the Horseman]

B'ham
Arsenal
Bournemouth
Stoke
WBA
Cambridge
Wigan

£5 pays £370

[ShaunNegativeTurner]

Tottenham (-104) - 2.3 pick rating
Norwich City +1.0 (+107) - 4.3 pick rating
West Ham 0.0 (-119) - 3.7 pick rating
Brentford 0.0 (+104) - 2.8 pick rating
Chelsea -1.5 (-102) - 2.4 pick rating
Liverpool (-127) - 5.1 pick rating

[Pepe the Horseman]

Jutkiewicz to score - 11/4. Has got 10 career goals v Derby.