by Snowball »
04 Apr 2020 11:03
The Unknown Infected Rate
Cannot be higher than 391:1
Spain has 119,827 Confirmed Cases in a country of 46,750,756 people.
That is Confirmed Cases are 1 now in every 392 people. This means that the hidden infection rate (ie not Officially Confirmed) would be 391:1 IF EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN SPAIN WAS ALREADY INFECTED.
This, then, for Spain, means that the maximum POSSIBLE multiplier is 391. That is the maximum possible answer to the question "How many people have got the virus (but unconfirmed) for every person who HAS been confirmed?"
Unless you believe that every person in Spain is already infected, then clearly the confirmed/unknown ratio HAS TO BE significantly lower than 392.
I did a calculation yesterday in a different way (before yesterday's totals) which maxed the UK at 391. I looked at the total tests and the percentage positive versus percentage negative. That 391figure is way, WAY higher than the eventual number will be, unless you wish to argue that every single human being in the UK already has the virus.
The calculation was simple. I thought, "Well we are testing highly-likely cases. Cases that are dead, dying, seriously ill, very ill, showing some symptoms, or have returned from a danger area, or have had close contact with a known case. This is clearly not a random sample. It's going to get a higher percentage of positives than a survey, say, of every single person in Reading.
The total tested (people with a good chance of being positive) were 173,784 and 38,168 (21.96%) of these were found to be positive.
It beggars belief to imagine this ratio would be the same ratio in the total UK population but what if it was?
What if, yesterday the number of people infected was 14,934,770 (68 Million * 21.96%)? That gives a MAXIMUM, a stupidly OTT number of 391... compared to Spain's 392
If you think that ALREADY a quarter of the UK and a quarter of Spain is infected. (Surely a massive over-statement?) then, even at that bonkers figure, the Confirmed: Missed Ratio would be 1:98