What % of fans would disappear if we went down the divisions

[Gus the teenage cow]

I've been looking at average attendances through the years and of course success brings more fans but the figures say the following:

at elm park we averaged about 10,000 when we were in the second/third tiers, the move to the madejski SAW NO NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN ATTENDANCE until we got promoted to the second tier where we averaged about 15,000 until our promotion season when we averaged 20,000 (suggests to me that 5,000 plastics appeared out of nowhere as they saw we were onto a good thing). We averaged just under 25,000 in the premier league for two seasons (another 5,000 plastics jumped on the bandwagon) and since dropping down a tier this season we are averaging about 18,000 so in one season we have lost more than 1 in 4 of our "devoted" fans, and this my friends is a season when we have been in the top three for months, worrying isn't it???


basically i am trying to decipher what is our solid group of dedicated fans who will follow us through thick and thin no matter if we drop down the divisions, i would put this hardcore group at around 10,000-12,000 i.e. we have had no discernible rise in hardcore fans in 10 years despite our sojourn in the premier and the increased exposure the game is getting

to conclude my deductions based on a thorough and well-researched study of attendance trends over the past 10 years conclude:

OF THE FOOTBALL SUPPORTERS IN OUR TOWN

Hardcore Base (will go no matter what)- 10,000
Strong Supporters(will go if we are in top 2 tiers, will be reluctant to go if we drop to third tier)-5,000
Fairweather Fannies (will go if we are in top tier or pressing at end of season from second tier)- 10,000

SHOCKING CONCLUSION IS OUR FAIRWEATHER FANNIES ARE AS BIG A GROUP AS OUR HARDCORE, THIS REALLY DUMBFOUNDS AND PAINS ME



to conclude please answer the anonymous poll above, I appreciate your time, co-operation and concern and I apologise if this post has shocked you, as an expose on Reading fan trends I have to admit it makes devastating reading

[Terminal Boardom]

at elm park we averaged about 10,000 when we were in the third tier,

When was that?

[TFF]

Where is the 3% option?

[CMRoyal]

SHOCKING CONCLUSION IS OUR FAIRWEATHER FANNIES ARE AS BIG A GROUP AS OUR HARDCORE, THIS REALLY DUMBFOUNDS AND PAINS ME

Why's that shocking? A 50:50 ratio sounds pretty good to me.

[Silver Fox]

7.2

although it could be higher

or lower even

[Gus the teenage cow]

SHOCKING CONCLUSION IS OUR FAIRWEATHER FANNIES ARE AS BIG A GROUP AS OUR HARDCORE, THIS REALLY DUMBFOUNDS AND PAINS ME

Why's that shocking? A 50:50 ratio sounds pretty good to me.

I think at most provincial clubs the hardcore outnumber the fairweather fannies, unfortuntaly it doesn't seem to be the case with us, thus i am forced to ask with such a large degree of apathy can we sustain a premier league club and worse still do we deserve a premier league club????

The figures and the preponderance of Fairweather Fannies(not an expression you hear every day I'll grant you) seem to say NO.

[West Stand Man]

Just a as piece of advice to anyone stupid enough to respond to a totally ridiculous poll, which of the 2 questions do you want answered? Is this a guess at the % who will be lost if we go down the divisions or the % who will be lost of the PL is no longer in sight?

[Gus the teenage cow]

also I'd like it if each poster stated to which group he belonged to at the beginning of his/her post

HF (Hardcore Fan)

SS (Strong Supporter)

FF (Fairweather Fanny)

Cheers and thanks again

[Royal Lady]

I'd be surprised if any fairweather fanny's bothered to read this board as we're "only" in the Championship at the moment.

[Gus the teenage cow]

I'd be surprised if any fairweather fanny's bothered to read this board as we're "only" in the Championship at the moment.

well...you're reading it and that's evidence enough for me that the net encompasses fans from across the spectrum

[Royal Lady]

I'm no fairweather fanny, you idiot.

[brendywendy]

gus you idiot

if we had 15K average before promotion to top flight
and 18k average when we came back
surely that indicates some sort of rise

not sure how you can extrapolate anything to tell you what % is"hardcore" in fact i am sure you cant

[Millsy]

Good post Gus.

Don't know if I agree or disagree with your deduced numbers (I remember under Parj being one of only 6-7000 fans) but I don't disagree with your conclusion - that there are as many fannies as there are die hards.

But as Huntley and Palmer says this is just the way it is with a quickly growing side. It is no surprise that with us having grown so quickly around half our fans will be fannies. If we stay half decent long enough (i.e. for as long as Coppell is with us) more of those fannies will become diehards.

But there are many who only need a few games and they're hooked eg/ with me I became a diehard after just four or five games in 1995 and I'm sure the same is true for many of the new boys.

Another important consideration is the effect of a hike in ticket prices. I know of at least 3 fellow die hards who were in there week in week out alongside me chanting their arses off who due to our success simply haven't been able to afford coming to matches regularly but still go the odd game when they can and follow Reading passionately.

So I think we have to factor this in i.e. let's say we do have the same number of diehard fans as we did 10 years ago: it doesn't necessarily mean it's the same fans - a good proportion of them will be new, but the effect of people being priced out has counteracted somewhat making it look like we have no new diehards.

[Irvinchangeyaname]

at elm park we averaged about 10,000 when we were in the third tier,

When was that?

I'd also like to know.

[Ian Royal]

If we were relegated to League 1 and didn't get immediate promotion I'd suspect something between 25% & 50% would stop going or go less regularly.

We certainly wouldn't average 15k plus for long. If we're just talking slumping to mid table or worse in this league then somewhere between 10% - 25%

In figures you'd be looking at 9-14k in league 1 and 12-17k in the Championship with no promotion challenges.

[Millsy]

at elm park we averaged about 10,000 when we were in the third tier,

When was that?

I'd also like to know.

+1

[Ian Royal]

at elm park we averaged about 10,000 when we were in the third tier,

When was that?

I'd also like to know.

Given we didn't average it in the second tier I'm also curious.

[SteveRoyal]

There are more plastics @ RFC because, when we fail, there are plenty of other clubs to go crawling to.
There are multiple London clubs, just an hour or so up the motorway, Portsmouth, Cardiff, Southampton, etc. all a short journey away, too.
Simply put, if we drop divisions, the majority of our fans could easily go off and 'support' another club.

[Kieron1981]

im only 27 so cant say i have been a fan for 40 years lol but started liking football when i was around 11, and supported reading ever since... through think and thin and always will

[bottom left hand corner]

tbh i would watch us in the Non-league but i wouldn't get a season ticket i would go to as many as i could