The Magic Number Thread

[windermereROYAL]

A draw next week between Burton and Cheltenham could push is nearer the line or we might be already there depending on the weekend results.

[Snowflake Royal]

If Vale lose tonight we drop to 4, so if we win Saturday, then anything less than a win from two of Vale, Burton and Cheltenham in every game they have left and its countdown complete, regardless of any more points for us.

It would be really nice to finish strong on 55+

WWD or WWW would be a huge confidence boost going into the close season with (hopefully) new owners and make us really quite attractive for contract renewals and new signings.

[The Royal Forester]

Does the Magic Nubber take into account the fact that Burton play Cheltenham and also travel to Fleetwood?

One of the teams in each match must drop two or more points in each match. That means that at least least four points cannot be counted in the overall total left to play for.

[Greatwesternline]

Does the Magic Nubber take into account the fact that Burton play Cheltenham and also travel to Fleetwood?

One of the teams in each match must drop two or more points in each match. That means that at least least four points cannot be counted in the overall total left to play for.

This reminds me of when Sheff Utd still had to play Watford which meant our own fans worked out just that little bit quicker that the Leicester game was where things could get confirmed. The media worked it out too obviously eventually but there was a period of time in which the fans were ITK.

[Greatwesternline]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

[WestYorksRoyal]

We're currently on 49 points. The maximum of others are:

Port Vale - 55
Cheltenham - 53
Burton - 52

So by my maths, if we win on Saturdays, only 1 of Cheltenham and Burton can catch us, no matter what their results are?

So, if we beat Barnsley, we could be safe if either:

- Port Vale pick up a maximum of 1 point from P'boro (A) and Exeter (H). We'd be safe regardless of Burton or Cheltenham's results, or

- Both Cheltenham and Burton fail to win on Saturday, so that neither can overtake us.

I'm not taking into account GD. Once you take that into account, a win on Saturday guarantees safety if P'Boro win tonight.

Ideally we'll do it on the pitch this Saturday for the scenes with the fans. If it's not Saturday, it could well be midweek when we're not playing which is a bit of an anti climax.

[rabidbee]

Does the Magic Nubber take into account the fact that Burton play Cheltenham and also travel to Fleetwood?

One of the teams in each match must drop two or more points in each match. That means that at least least four points cannot be counted in the overall total left to play for.

Yes, because the magic number is the number of points we need to get to not care about any other team. If Burton lose to Cheltenham, the magic number is unchanged, if Burton beat Cheltenham or it's a draw then the magic number will fall, but because there's only the single head-to-head to concern ourselves with, the magic number is correct. Fleetwood can't now catch us.

[Snowflake Royal]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

[MartinRdg]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

Need a computer program to track it....

[Snowflake Royal]

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

Need a computer program to track it....

Pretty sure I could do it in excel easily if I could be arsed to paste in the table regularly.

[MartinRdg]

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

Need a computer program to track it....

Pretty sure I could do it in excel easily if I could be arsed to paste in the table regularly.

I'm sure these days you must be able to get an updated table in data form which you could paste.

[Snowflake Royal]

Need a computer program to track it....

Pretty sure I could do it in excel easily if I could be arsed to paste in the table regularly.

I'm sure these days you must be able to get an updated table in data form which you could paste.

Safe to say it's my follow through that's the issue, not difficulty or access to data.

[morganb]

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

Need a computer program to track it....

Pretty sure I could do it in excel easily if I could be arsed to paste in the table regularly.

You could pull the table in from, for example, the BBC website using a web query then you can click and refresh to pull in the latest data.

I guess you just then need a formula that looks at the table and works out maximum points for all teams etc

[Mid Sussex Royal]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

That's wrong...champions is 136, beat 22 sides home and away and take 4 points from the 23rd side guarantees it.

[Dirk Gently]

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

That's wrong...champions is 136, beat 22 sides home and away and take 4 points from the 23rd side guarantees it.

And play-offs is wrong too, as if the top five teams are all getting maximum points there's no way the 17 other teams we need to finish above are doing the same.

Ditto the Promotion figure - if the Champions get 138 points it reduces the possible points total of every other team (including us) by 6 points.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

There must be a statistical way of working it all out, anyone an expert?

[Snowflake Royal]

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

That's wrong...champions is 136, beat 22 sides home and away and take 4 points from the 23rd side guarantees it.

And play-offs is wrong too, as if the top five teams are all getting maximum points there's no way the 17 other teams we need to finish above are doing the same.

Ditto the Promotion figure - if the Champions get 138 points it reduces the possible points total of every other team (including us) by 6 points.

Well you've definitely put more thought in than me, so over to you.

[Mr Angry]

I don't think there is.

There are simply too many variables and "unknown unknowns" to be able to state with any certainty what the total number of points needed is for any of the 4 desired outcomes at the start of the Season (with the exception of the 136 needed for Champions).

[Farnham Royal]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

[Greatwesternline]

Next season it should start from 138 and be updated weekly on how many more points we still need to finish top.

Standards must be raised.

The temptation to set it up as:

Champions - 138
Promotion - 138
Play offs - 138
Survival - 138

And track all 4 is there. But keeping it up would be a mammoth ballache.

79 Points is enough to absolutely guarantee survival at the beginning of the season. But, as you say, painful to track after every game by every team. Maybe in my retirement.

I'm honoured that you used one of only 9 ever posts to reply to my whimsical idea of constant magic number forecasting.