The Magic Number Thread

[Snowflake Royal]

Given everything has gone from feeling pretty good at climbing up towards midtable with sustained good form, to feeling utter shit with still no sale, two losses in three, a 2 point deduction and a further 2 points suspended that are almost certain to be applied, it seemed like a good time to act on Dirk's reminder, so we can start a regular update towards some degree of success.

Bottom of the table currently looks like this in terms of maximum points:

Team / max points
15: Cambridge - 74
16: Burton - 74
17: Exeter - 73
18: Cheltenham - 72
19: Shrewsbury - 71
20: Port Vale - 71
.....................................
21: Charlton - 70
22: Reading - 69 (67)
23: Fleetwood - 62
24: Carlisle - 59

Our remaining available points are: 33.
Our magic number is: 35 (37)

Hopefully we see the magic number drop below our max remaining aavailable points over the next couple of games.

For INFO.
The Magic Number is a count down to guaranteed safety based on beating the maximum points total (by GD or points) for a team to finish 4th bottom.

It is NOT how many wins we need.
It is NOT what points total will likely see us safe, would see us safe in any other season or would see us safe in most seasons.

[WestYorksRoyal]

16 from 11 gives us a finishing tally of 51 which should be enough. There are enough teams in the mix that 2 will get below 50 for my money.

So 5 wins, 5 defeats and 1 draw, which is not dissimilar to our form since November.

[Stranded]

Ah good, you can maintain it this year

Reminder for everyone.

The Magic Number can be higher than the total number of points available, that is fine at this stage -it just means they have games in hand.

The magic number against any particular side can drop by a maximum of 6pts per game week - i.e. we win, they lose.

[Stranded]

16 from 11 gives us a finishing tally of 51 which should be enough. There are enough teams in the mix that 2 will get below 50 for my money.

So 5 wins, 5 defeats and 1 draw, which is not dissimilar to our form since November.

Indeed but need to stress this early - THAT IS NOT THE POINT OF THE MAGIC NUMBER.

[Greatwesternline]

If we continue our form over the past 20 games, we will be fine. If we dont, we will be in a tight race. That's about the long and short of it.

[windermereROYAL]

Of course some of the max totals are open to change due to teams playing each other, but the general format is correct.

[Snowflake Royal]

Of course some of the max totals are open to change due to teams playing each other, but the general format is correct.

If it goes to the wire, I'll try to incorporate that, but too many games left for it at the moment.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Points need based on average PPG for all sides = 45
Points need as average survival in L1 over last 5 years = 46
RFC average PPG season to date = 49 (say 47 with suspended points taken off)

[Horsham Royal]

Ignoring GD, don't we need 72 then?

Shrewsbury - 71
Port Vale - 71
Charlton - 70
Fleetwood - 62
Carlisle - 59

We currently have 36 so shouldn't the number be 36, not 35?

[Snowflake Royal]

Ignoring GD, don't we need 72 then?

Shrewsbury - 71
Port Vale - 71
Charlton - 70
Fleetwood - 62
Carlisle - 59

We currently have 36 so shouldn't the number be 36, not 35?

Our GD is so superior to both that the extra point isn't necessary and that won't change if we match their points.

If we get to a point where GD may matter for someone in 4th it's highly likely it will be for a lower magic number as only Charlton are anywhere near ours.

[Stranded]

Ignoring GD, don't we need 72 then?

Shrewsbury - 71
Port Vale - 71
Charlton - 70
Fleetwood - 62
Carlisle - 59

We currently have 36 so shouldn't the number be 36, not 35?

Our GD is so superior to both that the extra point isn't necessary and that won't change if we match their points.

If we get to a point where GD may matter for someone in 4th it's highly likely it will be for a lower magic number as only Charlton are anywhere near ours.

PENDANT ALERT - Magic number shouldn't take GD into account, it should be a guide to the minimum number of points needed to be 100% certain of staying up.

[Snowflake Royal]

Ignoring GD, don't we need 72 then?

Shrewsbury - 71
Port Vale - 71
Charlton - 70
Fleetwood - 62
Carlisle - 59

We currently have 36 so shouldn't the number be 36, not 35?

Our GD is so superior to both that the extra point isn't necessary and that won't change if we match their points.

If we get to a point where GD may matter for someone in 4th it's highly likely it will be for a lower magic number as only Charlton are anywhere near ours.

PENDANT ALERT - Magic number shouldn't take GD into account, it should be a guide to the minimum number of points needed to be 100% certain of staying up.

Honesty alert - its also entirely possible I just miscounted.

[WestYorksRoyal]

It would be nice to do this thread for a promotion push one year.

[MartinRdg]

Ignoring GD, don't we need 72 then?

Shrewsbury - 71
Port Vale - 71
Charlton - 70
Fleetwood - 62
Carlisle - 59

We currently have 36 so shouldn't the number be 36, not 35?

Our GD is so superior to both that the extra point isn't necessary and that won't change if we match their points.

If we get to a point where GD may matter for someone in 4th it's highly likely it will be for a lower magic number as only Charlton are anywhere near ours.

PENDANT ALERT - Magic number shouldn't take GD into account, it should be a guide to the minimum number of points needed to be 100% certain of staying up.

I assume that should be Pedant?

[notloyalenuffroyal]

Our GD is so superior to both that the extra point isn't necessary and that won't change if we match their points.

If we get to a point where GD may matter for someone in 4th it's highly likely it will be for a lower magic number as only Charlton are anywhere near ours.

PENDANT ALERT - Magic number shouldn't take GD into account, it should be a guide to the minimum number of points needed to be 100% certain of staying up.

I assume that should be Pedant?

Being pedantic, shouldn't you have written PEDANT in capitals?

[windermereROYAL]

Shouldn`t this be updated after every game?

[SCIAG]

The real magic number is 3.

- number of points we get for a win
- shirt number of arguably our longest serving current player
- sides to a triangle
- world record number of goals scored in one match
- members of De La Soul
- number of seats the Tories are projected to win at the next election
- number of wins we need to stay up if Dai Yongge pays off the EFL to give us our hard-earned points back

[rabidbee]

Shouldn`t this be updated after every game?

Team / max points
15: Cambridge - 71
16: Burton - 72
17: Exeter - 70
18: Cheltenham - 70
19: Reading - 69 (67)
20: Charlton - 68
.....................................
21: Port Vale - 68
22: Shrewsbury - 68
23: Fleetwood - 61
24: Carlisle - 56

I make it 30 (32).

[Snowflake Royal]

Ta rabid

[Sutekh]

Shouldn`t this be updated after every game?

Team / max points
15: Cambridge - 71
16: Burton - 72
17: Exeter - 70
18: Cheltenham - 70
19: Reading - 69 (67)
20: Charlton - 68
.....................................
21: Port Vale - 68
22: Shrewsbury - 68
23: Fleetwood - 61
24: Carlisle - 56

I make it 30 (32).

Shame it couldn't actually happen, just for the LOLs at Vale and Shrewsbury (or Charlton).