Coronavirus outbreak

[Emmer Green Royal]

Exactly 20% of infected people die after exactly 14 days

That is TOTAL BOLLOCKS as you have NO IDEA how many people are infected.

[Snowball]

You can predict today's deaths and cumulative deaths by going back more or less 15 days and multiplying the cases THEN by the overall rate NOW and it comes out very, very close to the actual.


The model predicts a cumulative deaths at 23:59 tonight of 94,949+ based on Cumulative Cases at 17:00 25-March of 453,008, which would mean 6,615 deaths today. That's using the base from 15.2 Days ago, not looking at the last couple of Days and marking up.

The prediction was actually 97,764 and the actual was 95,657

==================================================

The TV people are going on about the UK today showing a tiny fall from 888 to 881, but Wales (41 today) because it changed the way it returned its numbers went from 24 to 12 hours. Pro-rata they would have returned 82 and the UK total would have been 923.

[Snowball]

Exactly 20% of infected people die after exactly 14 days

That is TOTAL BOLLOCKS as you have NO IDEA how many people are infected.

It was an EXAMPLE for Chrissakes, NOT THIS pandemic. Dear God!

See here? Imagine a virus which arrives and only infects people for a month.

People start to die after 14 Days, and anyone who dies, (exactly 20% of everyone infected) dies exactly 14 days later, In the first 13 days, despite a huge growth in cases there will be no deaths at all. Then, for another 14 or so days the rate will climb. Then the rate will fall and the final rate will be the one I stated at the start... exactly 20%

[bcubed]

From the Guardian today:

For the “Covid-19 case cluster study”, scientists from the University of Bonn went back to the town that had the first two fatalities from the virus in Germany and interviewed and tested 1,000 residents. Researchers are also trying to work out exactly how the virus got transmitted at a carnival event in the area on 15 February.

After analysing around half of the tests, the study’s director, Prof Hendrick Streeck, said on Thursday morning that 14% of the population in the area had developed immunity after contracting the coronavirus. Previous estimated had put the infection rate at only around 5%.

Streeck said the fatality case rate of the virus in the area had also turned out to be considerably lower than the currently currently registered for the country as a whole. In Heinsberg, only 0.37% of people who contracted the virus had died.

The latest figure for Germany as a whole, as calculated by Johns Hopkins University, is 1.98%.

That's interesting
And I understood it as well

[Hound]

From the Guardian today:

For the “Covid-19 case cluster study”, scientists from the University of Bonn went back to the town that had the first two fatalities from the virus in Germany and interviewed and tested 1,000 residents. Researchers are also trying to work out exactly how the virus got transmitted at a carnival event in the area on 15 February.

After analysing around half of the tests, the study’s director, Prof Hendrick Streeck, said on Thursday morning that 14% of the population in the area had developed immunity after contracting the coronavirus. Previous estimated had put the infection rate at only around 5%.

Streeck said the fatality case rate of the virus in the area had also turned out to be considerably lower than the currently currently registered for the country as a whole. In Heinsberg, only 0.37% of people who contracted the virus had died.

The latest figure for Germany as a whole, as calculated by Johns Hopkins University, is 1.98%.

That's interesting
And I understood it as well

It is. And the work going on there is very important to find a way out of where we are

[John Madejski's Wallet]

At tonight's Govt briefing Dominic Rabb gave these stats

65,077 Cases
16,784 Hospitalised
07,978 Died in Hospital
01,500 Critical (this figure not yet given for today, so approximate based on yesterday)

This shows that a staggering 47.53% of hospital cases are dying.

When the critical cases and those lingering are added, that must surely go over 50%

12.26% of Confirmed Cases are shown to be dying. This is a crude rate, much under-played) and will rise to around 25% of CC's

The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned

[PieEater]

At tonight's Govt briefing Dominic Rabb gave these stats

65,077 Cases
16,784 Hospitalised
07,978 Died in Hospital
01,500 Critical (this figure not yet given for today, so approximate based on yesterday)

This shows that a staggering 47.53% of hospital cases are dying.

When the critical cases and those lingering are added, that must surely go over 50%

12.26% of Confirmed Cases are shown to be dying. This is a crude rate, much under-played) and will rise to around 25% of CC's

The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned

It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.

[Nameless]

At tonight's Govt briefing Dominic Rabb gave these stats

65,077 Cases
16,784 Hospitalised
07,978 Died in Hospital
01,500 Critical (this figure not yet given for today, so approximate based on yesterday)

This shows that a staggering 47.53% of hospital cases are dying.

When the critical cases and those lingering are added, that must surely go over 50%

12.26% of Confirmed Cases are shown to be dying. This is a crude rate, much under-played) and will rise to around 25% of CC's

The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned

It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.

I’m struggling with the idea that comparing two inaccurate numbers can give you anything meaningful.
Presumably it has been established that they are using carefully matched inaccurate methods to obtain their inaccurate figures ?
I’m also impressed at inaccurate numbers being reported to two decimal places....

[PieEater]

The confirmed cases death rate is so far beyond useless in the UK, it really shouldn't be mentioned

It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.

I’m struggling with the idea that comparing two inaccurate numbers can give you anything meaningful.
Presumably it has been established that they are using carefully matched inaccurate methods to obtain their inaccurate figures ?
I’m also impressed at inaccurate numbers being reported to two decimal places....

I see it being as simple as the total deaths reported are just those that turn up and are tested at a hospital, that is quite different from actual deaths that are not tested. Other countries use the same process, so the count of actual related virus deaths may be inaccurate but if everyone is only counting hospital deaths then you have a comparison.

[Emmer Green Royal]

Excuse me, but I would politely like to ask...















WHAT THE **** HAS THIS GOT TO DO WITH the team, the management, and matches?

[muirinho]

It was mentioned in the press briefing that although it may be useless as an absolute measure it was useful in comparing the same stats with other countries as they use similarly inaccurate counts. So you can get an idea of the relative progression.

I’m struggling with the idea that comparing two inaccurate numbers can give you anything meaningful.
Presumably it has been established that they are using carefully matched inaccurate methods to obtain their inaccurate figures ?
I’m also impressed at inaccurate numbers being reported to two decimal places....

I see it being as simple as the total deaths reported are just those that turn up and are tested at a hospital, that is quite different from actual deaths that are not tested. Other countries use the same process, so the count of actual related virus deaths may be inaccurate but if everyone is only counting hospital deaths then you have a comparison.

But they aren't.
Ireland, for instance are including deaths in nursing homes, I believe Scotland are also. But England and Wales aren't.
If someone who is terminally ill with cancer dies after contracting Covid-19, they would be reported as a Covid death in UK and Ireland - but not, say, Austria.

So absolute numbers cannot be compared. Percentage increase comparisons can though.

i.e., If hospital deaths in country A are increasing by 10%, it is likely that non-hospital deaths are also increasing by the same percentage. So that 10% can be compared with country B without knowing whether they include non-hospital deaths or not.

Some of the more esoteric predictions on this thread though, I can't see justification for.

And, as I've said previously, you can't make judgements on deaths as some kind of a percentage of hospital admissions or ICU admissions - because different countries will have different criteria for when somebody ill gets admitted to hospital, and at what stage they get moved to ICU

[Snowflake Royal]

Genuine question.

Why is anyone other than snowmentalstat opening this thread, let alone posting in it?
For me, I accidentally came to TB intending to go to AE.

A mistake I won't be repeating soon.

[Royal Rother]

Genuine question.

Why is anyone other than snowmentalstat opening this thread, let alone posting in it?
For me, I accidentally came to TB intending to go to AE.

A mistake I won't be repeating soon.

It’s a distraction to lighten the mood.

[Millsy]

A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.

[The Royal Forester]

A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.

Is your friend David Icke by any chance?

[SCIAG]

A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.

This is the worst post in this thread so far.

[Uke]

A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.

Yup, that explains Iran, India and Japan...

[sandman]

A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.

Presumably your friends brain transplant is delayed due to all the people being treated for the virus.

[SCIAG]

A friend told me it's not a virus it's just waves coming from 5G masts. The stats seem to fit this theory as countries with 5G masts seems to have deaths. Use your phone less.

Presumably your friends brain transplant is delayed due to all the people being treated for the virus.

Think it was cancelled at the midpoint.

[Zip]