Magic Number

[Snowflake Royal]

56

7 more wins then

Is this an attempt at a joke or do you really just not understand this at all?

[paultheroyal]

6 wins from 22 games.

The only magic number you need to know

[Franchise FC]

Far be it for me to support Ian, but there’s nothing magic about guessing the number of wins/points required for safety

His magic number is an empirical certainty

[windermereROYAL]

In reality nothing screams out at me that the 3 bottom teams can double their points tally with 22 games to go (23 for udds) 5 wins should do us, bound to be a few draws in there too

[Snowflake Royal]

Far be it for me to support Ian, but there’s nothing magic about guessing the number of wins/points required for safety

His magic number is an empirical certainty

Credit to stranded for the idea, not me. I'm just updating because I like a countdown and seeing the number drop steadily.

Not sure why Ptr seems intent on hijacking this rather than setting up his own 'arbitrary number of wins I've decided equals safety' thread. But each to their own

[paultheroyal]

Not hijacking at all. Magic number is 6 wins. Don’t be so sensitive about it.

[Snowflake Royal]

That's not what a magic number is.

Not sensitive. Bemused.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

It's 5 wins - on basis of current PPG for bottom three who are around 1 PPG, so the usual 50 point mark usually suggested at the start of the season still looks fair. The upper mid to lower mid is where its crazy but top and bottom are pretty much a usual season.

We've got too used to surviving on low 40's due to some very poor sides at the bottom in recent years.

Last season we would have only needed 3 points more than we have now to be safe

[From Despair To Where?]

Lots of people missing the point, it seems.

The magic number is the points swing required to be mathematically certain of the desired result, in this case, safety from relegation . It's a precise number determined by actual results, not guesswork based on probability.

[muirinho]

Lots of people missing the point, it seems.

The magic number is the points swing required to be mathematically certain of the desired result, in this case, safety from relegation . It's a precise number determined by actual results, not guesswork based on probability.

Exactly. Could have an entirely different thread based on number of points/wins needed for probable safety, but - that's not a magic number.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

It's 5 wins - on basis of current PPG for bottom three who are around 1 PPG, so the usual 50 point mark usually suggested at the start of the season still looks fair. The upper mid to lower mid is where its crazy but top and bottom are pretty much a usual season.

We've got too used to surviving on low 40's due to some very poor sides at the bottom in recent years.

Last season we would have only needed 3 points more than we have now to be safe

I think it's worth noting the points deductions in recent seasons though, we would have gone down on 46 points last season, whereas the season previous Derby would have been relegated on 44 (minus the points deductions) and Barnsley would have been 49 19/20 (minus Wigan's 12 points deductions)

When teams suffer points deductions the bar does tend to be set a little bit lower, but I think if anyone gets over 50 points and goes down they can count themselves pretty unlucky. I don't think that'll be the case this season, I think 22nd may be similar to Barnsley's tally of 49.

It does seem to be that the table appears quite similar this year to the aforementioned 19/20 season. 13 points separated the entire bottom half, as Hull finished bottom on 45 and QPR 13th on 58, so I can see this season finishing fairly similar. At the minute, 11 points separates Huddersfield who are bottom and Luton, who top the bottom half, in 13th.

[Snowflake Royal]

Lots of people missing the point, it seems.

The magic number is the points swing required to be mathematically certain of the desired result, in this case, safety from relegation . It's a precise number determined by actual results, not guesswork based on probability.

Exactly. Could have an entirely different thread based on number of points/wins needed for probable safety, but - that's not a magic number.

Amazed how many people cant grasp this simple fact even after its been covered multiple times.

It's an objective count down to mathematical certainty.

[Hendo]

[Royal_jimmy]

56

7 more wins then

Is this an attempt at a joke or do you really just not understand this at all?

We get 21 points and hope 22nd and below drop 35

[SouthDownsRoyal]

What a baffling page of posts

[Hendo]

What a baffling page of posts

You must be new here, etc…

[SouthDownsRoyal]

What a baffling page of posts

You must be new here, etc…

Lol

[Mr Angry]

I make it 54 now........

Rotherham in 21st are on 27, and have 21 games (63 points) left - total; 90 points.

We have 36 points.

90 - 36 = 54

(Hudds are in 22nd, but have played a game fewer than Rotherham and are on 25 points, hence me using Rotherham as the baseline for the Magic Number)

[Snowflake Royal]

Tick tick the magic number slips ever down, no win required.

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it 50 now.