Magic Number

[Royal_jimmy]

17 more wins then

[Dirk Gently]

I absolutely get the empirical nature of the Magic Number and agree with how useful a measure it is.

But ... it assumes that all clubs can get maximum points from their remaining games which clearly isn't going to happen as they play each other (even if you just consider the bottom three clubs there's still the same issue), so good as it is as a measure there's always a slight margin of error where the calculated Magic Number is a bit less than the actual number of points required for safety - until right at the end of the season.

[Stranded]

I absolutely get the empirical nature of the Magic Number and agree with how useful a measure it is.

But ... it assumes that all clubs can get maximum points from their remaining games which clearly isn't going to happen as they play each other (even if you just consider the bottom three clubs there's still the same issue), so good as it is as a measure there's always a slight margin of error where the calculated Magic Number is a bit less than the actual number of points required for safety - until right at the end of the season.

Oh it is a very simplistic measure and that is it's beauty - I'm not a fan of using it this far out though - it is much more pertinant when you are dealing with a small number of direct competitors i.e. like the relegation battle last year.

To focus on the bottom 3 only - and giving all 3 of them a draw against each other - then the magic number is 49.

Hopefully this year, this becomes completely irrelevant and we are safe fairly early and mathematically safe with 4 or 5 games to go.

[Millsy]

Can we do one for getting into the playoffs please?

That's the only direction I'm looking, thanks to Ince & Ince.

[Mr Angry]

Can we do one for getting into the playoffs please?

That's the only direction I'm looking, thanks to Ince & Ince.

Interesting one this, as it's 63

Middlesborough have 39 points with 20 games left to play; total = 99 points.

Reading have 36 points.

99 minus 36 = 63.

The interest is in how much closer we are to relegation than the play offs using the Magic Number formula.

PInce has stated that his goal is to get to 50 points ASAP, and then take if from there; the Magic Number having that as the goal is simple to calculate and probably the most realistic target for the club. However.....the most points attained by a team which has been relegated from the Championship since it was formed in 2004/05 is 54 (Peterborough, 2012/13 season), so it seems more reasonable to take 55 points as the target rather than 50 points.

[Nameless]

...the most points attained by a team which has been relegated from the Championship since it was formed in 2004/05 is 54 (Peterborough, 2012/13 season), so it seems more reasonable to take 55 points as the target rather than 50 points.

Are you going to tell PInce he’s wrong or shall I ?
Is the pitch invasion for hitting 50 cancelled ?

[Snowflake Royal]

I absolutely get the empirical nature of the Magic Number and agree with how useful a measure it is.

But ... it assumes that all clubs can get maximum points from their remaining games which clearly isn't going to happen as they play each other (even if you just consider the bottom three clubs there's still the same issue), so good as it is as a measure there's always a slight margin of error where the calculated Magic Number is a bit less than the actual number of points required for safety - until right at the end of the season.

Oh it is a very simplistic measure and that is it's beauty - I'm not a fan of using it this far out though - it is much more pertinant when you are dealing with a small number of direct competitors i.e. like the relegation battle last year.

To focus on the bottom 3 only - and giving all 3 of them a draw against each other - then the magic number is 49.

Hopefully this year, this becomes completely irrelevant and we are safe fairly early and mathematically safe with 4 or 5 games to go.

If I could code, I'd write an algorithm to factor in games against each other. But I can't. And in the absence of Brobot doing anything useful, I think we're stuck with simplistic.

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

[Royal_jimmy]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

Teams at the bottom are starting to slow down so I think 50-51 points should be enough to stay up. 4 more wins and a couple of draws will do it.

[morganb]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks

(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)

[Royals and Racers]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks

(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)

Which if we get as many points in the last 19 games as the previous 27 gives us 63.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

Teams at the bottom are starting to slow down so I think 50-51 points should be enough to stay up. 4 more wins and a couple of draws will do it.

We've definitely got more than enough about us to stay up given where we are now and I don't think many sides at the bottom are going to pick up that many points either. Teams like Rotherham, Bristol City etc will get the odd win, but will probably go for another 4-5 games without winning and get sucked back in again.

I reckon the team in 22nd will finish with 47-48 points, at best.

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks

(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)

Yep, Can do.

[Stranded]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

Could you also add what points we are currently on - thanks

(We are on 37 points at the moment, 27 games played, 19 left)

Which if we get as many points in the last 19 games as the previous 27 gives us 63.

The team currently 3rd from bottom are going at 1pt per game.

If we slump to that over 19 games, we'll still get to 56. Meaning Huddersfield would need to get 30pts from 20games to catch us, Blackpool 30 from 19 and Wigan 31 from 19 - so play-off form.

It would be nice to get a win at the weekend and break into the 40s, I know that is still not safe but once you get to that level, you start to feel that safety is nearly done baring the sort of run of form that this side don't appear to have in them.

[Mr Angry]

That Magic Number for safety will come down very quickly if we were to get a run of even 2 or 3 wins on the trot, as teams at the bottom won't do that and so the differential will end up being reduced by 4 or 6 points after each win.

if we can get 10 points from the next 5 games ( games v Rotherham, Cardiff, Watford, Sunderland and Stoke) then being on 47 points would make you think that we should be there or thereabouts re: safety.

[LUX]

the bottom three seem to be picking up points/ changing often. Hull were one of our bankers not long ago, Rotherham were before they beat Blackburn 4-0 on Saturday.

I do think we can pick up points pretty much anywhere, but I am not 100% secure yet.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

the bottom three seem to be picking up points/ changing often. Hull were one of our bankers not long ago, Rotherham were before they beat Blackburn 4-0 on Saturday.

I do think we can pick up points pretty much anywhere, but I am not 100% secure yet.

I think that's been the case for a while, I think there is usually a team or two that gets a result, but there is always 3, 4, 5 teams that don't. So whilst Bristol City and Rotherham down there won, everyone else from Hull down didn't. It's only really been some good away form that has managed to steer Hull away, I think the others are capable of getting the odd result or two, but I can't see several teams going on a decent run of form over the next 10 games to see us dragged in.

It's just down to us over the next half a dozen games to just keep picking up the points. Mentioned it on one of the QPR threads but, the result is far more important than the performance against Stoke. Ideally I'd want both, but just a win would take the pressure off with a difficult fixture list coming up. Butt agree in the main, I do think we can pick up points against anyone really this season (maybe excluding Burnley and Sheff United).

[SCIAG]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?

(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?

(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)

Correct.

[paultheroyal]

Points Available: 57
Play Off Magic Number: 61
Safety Magic Number: 49

So let me see if I have got this right - we need 61 points from a possible 57 to guarantee a playoff place?

(Obviously the other four are from teams 6-13 dropping points, and if they drop more then we can afford to drop some ourselves)

61 points to get a play off place - not a cat in hell's chance - 68 to 70 will be the bar and probably higher than that. So any team who manages to get 8 wins from the next 19 games will be in the play off place from 15th place Coventry and up

6 wins is the only magic number you need to know.