Relegation

[URZZZZ]

Not sure what’s worse

Our imminent relegation or DD returning. Think the latter just about wins

[Franconian Royal]

Is it safe to come out yet?

I don’t usually post here, simply because there are some abusive people.

As for relegation: it’ll have a big effect on many people’s lives. Dellor said on commentary a while back that it could mean that people will lose their jobs, which is incredibly sad.

As for the footballing side, I’ve seen some dark days (Burns era in the cold in Div 2(?)), but if we can put together a good enough squad, we might be able to do a ‘mid-table mediocrity’ job next season. Throwing money around will not solve the problem and the owner has to be reminded of that. As for rumours that he has no money, if that’s true, it’s really worrying.

Nevertheless, if we can do a job against Wigan, then we might just have a chance of upsetting Colin, which would really please me

[Loafer]

Not sure what’s worse

Our imminent relegation or DD returning. Think the latter just about wins

I'm not posting on the TB again, just get abused by people

[genome]

If you can do the same on AE that would be great

[South Coast Royal]

Dellors comments were interesting. He could be right.....to rebuild this team is too much work in one summer. It's broken. It's not inconceivable we could double drop. Dai has lost my trust, how do we know he won't piss more money up the wall in desperation to go back up, and buy badly again landing us in more shit ? This team doesn't even look close to being able to challenge in League 1...it's terrible.
I like Noel Hunt, but we need an experienced manager next season who can build something.....not a newbie, orforeigner who knows nothing about the lower leagues.

I wonder how SCL feel as well, they put a lot of money in the club for sponsorship, bet they didn't expect this.

If they didn't at least consider it they're mugs. It's been on the cards for years.

Let's take a look at the clubs who get double relegated down to League Two....
Pompey - Administration twice in a few years, 10 point deductions two seasons running. Returned to L1 in a couple of years and fairly consistently vying for promotion there these days.
Luton - 10 point deduction followed by a 30 point deduction. In a 15 year spell fell all the way to Non League and then all the way back up to the brink of the PL.

Those are the two I can think of off the top of my head. Very different circumstances to ours. We're mostly out of the immediate financial danger.

Just a couple of examples to balance your argument Ian, take a look at the level that Yeovil and Scunthorpe will be playing next season.

[Snowball]

P44 -26 47 QPR
P43 -11 46 Rotherham
P43 -14 46 Cardiff
P43 -19 44 Huddersfield

=======================================

P44 -20 43 READING
P44 -24 41 Blackpool
P44 -27 40 Wigan


Wigan are 99% down.

They have to win their last two games 2-0 or 3-0 to finish on 46 points and a GD of -22. Cardiff would need to lose their last three game conceding a GD of -9 to be overtaken.

Blackpool are 95% down

If Blackpool win the final two games (2-0/3-0) they reach 47 points and a GD of -19, so if Cardiff lost three they could catch them, or if Cardiff D1 L2 with a -GD of 5, then Blackpool would overtake them on goals-scored.

Of the other 5 clubs, READING are favourites to go down

Rotherham v Cardiff is the game in hand for both teams They might decide to play out a tame draw, but both teams must surely play with the thought that Reading could win their last two, reach 49 points and a GD of -18 at worst.

There is no question that Reading must beat Wigan, and ideally by 2+ goals. The way things have swung (and the Reading way) it could easily be a 3-3 draw or a home defeat, but Noel Hunt will have them up and fighting, so (for now) we have to presume them winning.

They would then be on

P45 -19 46 READING

Huddersfield will have three games left, one v Cardiff away, one home to Sheffield Utd, and then home to Reading.

It is perfectly reasonable to imagine that Huddersfield lose both games,

but say they DRAW both games.

P45 -19 46 Huddersfield
P45 -19 46 READING Reading GD -19 or better)

That would mean Huddersfield would need to BEAT Reading (because a draw would send them down on less goals scored – unless their two draws totalled 4-4 and then it would be an absolute tie).

Sure, Huddersfield might win at Cardiff, but then Cardiff (if they lost or drew at Rotherham) would be on 46 or 47 with a home game v Huddersfield then away to Burnley.

Should Cardiff win at Rotherham then Rotherham might still be in trouble.

They could easily lose at home to Middlesbro’ and would go into the last game at Wigan needing to match Reading’s result at Huddersfield.

Sure it all FEELS bad and if we were still under Ince I would be expecting a bad result v Wigan, BUT, beat Wigan, preferably 2-0 or 3-0 and there are a few ways we could stay up.

[Snowflake Royal]

Dellors comments were interesting. He could be right.....to rebuild this team is too much work in one summer. It's broken. It's not inconceivable we could double drop. Dai has lost my trust, how do we know he won't piss more money up the wall in desperation to go back up, and buy badly again landing us in more shit ? This team doesn't even look close to being able to challenge in League 1...it's terrible.
I like Noel Hunt, but we need an experienced manager next season who can build something.....not a newbie, orforeigner who knows nothing about the lower leagues.

I wonder how SCL feel as well, they put a lot of money in the club for sponsorship, bet they didn't expect this.

If they didn't at least consider it they're mugs. It's been on the cards for years.

Let's take a look at the clubs who get double relegated down to League Two....
Pompey - Administration twice in a few years, 10 point deductions two seasons running. Returned to L1 in a couple of years and fairly consistently vying for promotion there these days.
Luton - 10 point deduction followed by a 30 point deduction. In a 15 year spell fell all the way to Non League and then all the way back up to the brink of the PL.

Those are the two I can think of off the top of my head. Very different circumstances to ours. We're mostly out of the immediate financial danger.

Just a couple of examples to balance your argument Ian, take a look at the level that Yeovil and Scunthorpe will be playing next season.

Also not really comparable... just getting to the Championship was an incredible achievement for Yeovil and never sustainable. They've spent much of their time in NL anyway.

Scunthorpe also far smaller... transfermarket has them at less than 7k average attendance max in the Championship. Not to mention they didn't get double relegated anyway.

[paultheroyal]

Basically we are now in a play off situation. Win the next two games we stay up. Simple as. It would take a strange set of results that 2 wins we go down.

Beat Wigan, it sets up a relegation final in a one off game against Huddersfield. A chance to seek revenge in that god awful final a few years back.

Let’s do the job against Wigan, and then let’s have a massive game at The Terriers and revenge!

[Snowflake Royal]

For those worrying about attendance, after Ipswich stagnated for years in the Championship and eventualy went down, their attendances increased to a level they hadn't been for a decade.

It's not all doom and gloom.

[blythspartan]

Having my glass half full I am looking forward to seeing a new thread on here for next season called “Promotion”. Maybe there’s an old one that can be revived from a while back.

[Sutekh]

Basically we are now in a play off situation. Win the next two games we stay up. Simple as. It would take a strange set of results that 2 wins we go down.

Beat Wigan, it sets up a relegation final in a one off game against Huddersfield. A chance to seek revenge in that god awful final a few years back.

Let’s do the job against Wigan, and then let’s have a massive game at The Terriers and revenge!

Think we really need Cardiff to win v Huddersfield next Sunday. IF, and it is a very big IF, Reading beat Wigan then Hudds will drop back into the relegation zone and be facing Sheffield United at home before Reading go there. It’s therefore, not inconceivable that Reading could go to Huddersfield needing to just avoid defeat to survive. And they’d have the knowledge of knowing just what to expect from Colin so in no way could be caught out by the expected onslaught. So you can be sure the authorities will appoint an experienced PL ref for that game and not someone just starting out.

Of course It’ll be interesting if Cardiff lose at Rotherham and don’t beat Huddersfield then Reading may need to go all out attack at Huddersfield and hang the consequences…

[Ascotexgunner]

Dellors comments were interesting. He could be right.....to rebuild this team is too much work in one summer. It's broken. It's not inconceivable we could double drop. Dai has lost my trust, how do we know he won't piss more money up the wall in desperation to go back up, and buy badly again landing us in more shit ? This team doesn't even look close to being able to challenge in League 1...it's terrible.
I like Noel Hunt, but we need an experienced manager next season who can build something.....not a newbie, orforeigner who knows nothing about the lower leagues.

I wonder how SCL feel as well, they put a lot of money in the club for sponsorship, bet they didn't expect this.

If they didn't at least consider it they're mugs. It's been on the cards for years.

Let's take a look at the clubs who get double relegated down to League Two....
Pompey - Administration twice in a few years, 10 point deductions two seasons running. Returned to L1 in a couple of years and fairly consistently vying for promotion there these days.
Luton - 10 point deduction followed by a 30 point deduction. In a 15 year spell fell all the way to Non League and then all the way back up to the brink of the PL.

Those are the two I can think of off the top of my head. Very different circumstances to ours. We're mostly out of the immediate financial danger.

Can you explain the finances to me? Because I am confused. I'm told the club has north of 100 mill in debt, we don't own the stadium or training facilities (I believe)...The rumours are the owner isn't as rich as made out and has his own issues back in China. So my question is...what financial danger are we out of? Especially with this owner, who I backed and believed would make us better, but in fact just presided over f*ck up after f*ck up making crap decision after crap decision.
If the money does dry up I've always believed Reading is a very sellable club but it's the level of debt I find worrying. Just to buy a league 1 club is not attractive to many billionaires.

[Orion1871]

For those worrying about attendance, after Ipswich stagnated for years in the Championship and eventually went down, their attendances increased to a level they hadn't been for a decade.

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once again you are citing another terrible example. Another club bigger than Reading, with a more invested fan base, who care more passionately about their club.

They were also known for having the most expensive tickets outside of the Premier League when they were in the Championship. In fact, I believe at one point it was only an Arsenal season ticket that cost more than an Ipswich season ticket in the whole of the English League system.

Even with the lowest prices in the Championship, the people of Reading haven't been bothered to support their club. That is not going to change for the better in League One.

[Snowflake Royal]

Dellors comments were interesting. He could be right.....to rebuild this team is too much work in one summer. It's broken. It's not inconceivable we could double drop. Dai has lost my trust, how do we know he won't piss more money up the wall in desperation to go back up, and buy badly again landing us in more shit ? This team doesn't even look close to being able to challenge in League 1...it's terrible.
I like Noel Hunt, but we need an experienced manager next season who can build something.....not a newbie, orforeigner who knows nothing about the lower leagues.

I wonder how SCL feel as well, they put a lot of money in the club for sponsorship, bet they didn't expect this.

If they didn't at least consider it they're mugs. It's been on the cards for years.

Let's take a look at the clubs who get double relegated down to League Two....
Pompey - Administration twice in a few years, 10 point deductions two seasons running. Returned to L1 in a couple of years and fairly consistently vying for promotion there these days.
Luton - 10 point deduction followed by a 30 point deduction. In a 15 year spell fell all the way to Non League and then all the way back up to the brink of the PL.

Those are the two I can think of off the top of my head. Very different circumstances to ours. We're mostly out of the immediate financial danger.

Can you explain the finances to me? Because I am confused. I'm told the club has north of 100 mill in debt, we don't own the stadium or training facilities (I believe)...The rumours are the owner isn't as rich as made out and has his own issues back in China. So my question is...what financial danger are we out of? Especially with this owner, who I backed and believed would make us better, but in fact just presided over f*ck up after f*ck up making crap decision after crap decision.
If the money does dry up I've always believed Reading is a very sellable club but it's the level of debt I find worrying. Just to buy a league 1 club is not attractive to many billionaires.

With FFP it largely doesn't matter how rich an owner is. They're limited to how much they can plough in (as loans).

Debt isn't a particular problem as long as its to the owner. Ownership of facilities isn't a particular problem as long as the owner is the same as the club and stays that way.

The real problem is spending beyond income (and permitted loans), yes the consequence of that is more debt. But the actual real problem is sanction from the FL.

Thanks to the FL forcing us to take action, our wage bill has gone from ~£40m compared to a routine income of ~£16m, to about £16m and we have about £5m of player wages out of contract at the end of this season. Assuming anyone with half a brain has been involved in recent contract negotiations, most of our remaining contracted players should also be on relegation wage reduction clauses.

So our only remaining restriction next season is not breaking a spending cap, which is where every club should be anyway.

The last couple of seasons we couldn't pay transfer fees, compensation fees, agent fees were capped, wages for individuals were capped. All that's gone. The pain has happened.

I'm not fussed about the debt preventing a sale, because a sale is pretty much the only way Dai gets any money back. Its not like folding the club really cuts any debt he owes any other creditors. The training ground and stadium aren't as valuable for any other purpose and there would be campaigns to protect them.

[Snowflake Royal]

For those worrying about attendance, after Ipswich stagnated for years in the Championship and eventually went down, their attendances increased to a level they hadn't been for a decade.

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once again you are citing another terrible example. Another club bigger than Reading, with a more invested fan base, who care more passionately about their club.

They were also known for having the most expensive tickets outside of the Premier League when they were in the Championship. In fact, I believe at one point it was only an Arsenal season ticket that cost more than an Ipswich season ticket in the whole of the English League system.

Even with the lowest prices in the Championship, the people of Reading haven't been bothered to support their club. That is not going to change for the better in League One.

[Royal_jimmy]

For those worrying about attendance, after Ipswich stagnated for years in the Championship and eventually went down, their attendances increased to a level they hadn't been for a decade.

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once again you are citing another terrible example. Another club bigger than Reading, with a more invested fan base, who care more passionately about their club.

They were also known for having the most expensive tickets outside of the Premier League when they were in the Championship. In fact, I believe at one point it was only an Arsenal season ticket that cost more than an Ipswich season ticket in the whole of the English League system.

Even with the lowest prices in the Championship, the people of Reading haven't been bothered to support their club. That is not going to change for the better in League One.

For fans to come back we'd have to be near the top of league one and showing signs the club is better run which for the foreseeable feels unlikely. I hope I'm wrong and we bounce back straight away but I am not optimistic.

[blythspartan]

Once again you are citing another terrible example. Another club bigger than Reading, with a more invested fan base, who care more passionately about their club.

They were also known for having the most expensive tickets outside of the Premier League when they were in the Championship. In fact, I believe at one point it was only an Arsenal season ticket that cost more than an Ipswich season ticket in the whole of the English League system.

Even with the lowest prices in the Championship, the people of Reading haven't been bothered to support their club. That is not going to change for the better in League One.

For fans to come back we'd have to be near the top of league one and showing signs the club is better run which for the foreseeable feels unlikely. I hope I'm wrong and we bounce back straight away but I am not optimistic.

Firstly, we have to actually get relegated which looks very likely. I’m going to chill until I see what the close season brings and it’s pointless speculating about what might or might not happen atm.

[Snowflake Royal]

True, I'm not buying a ST until relegation is confirmed.

[Loafer]

For those worrying about attendance, after Ipswich stagnated for years in the Championship and eventually went down, their attendances increased to a level they hadn't been for a decade.

It's not all doom and gloom.

Once again you are citing another terrible example. Another club bigger than Reading, with a more invested fan base, who care more passionately about their club.

They were also known for having the most expensive tickets outside of the Premier League when they were in the Championship. In fact, I believe at one point it was only an Arsenal season ticket that cost more than an Ipswich season ticket in the whole of the English League system.

Even with the lowest prices in the Championship, the people of Reading haven't been bothered to support their club. That is not going to change for the better in League One.

Orion is a massive twonk but he is right

[tidus_mi2]

Reading fans on Twitter are the worst I swear, we're already down according to them, yes it's not good but the situation hasn't changed, beat Wigan and we might even start the final day outside the relegation zone, fail to beat Wigan and we're in a World of shit.

At the same time, I can't see us going out of business if we're relegated despite a surprisingly large amount of Twitter RFC fans believing it is inevitable, however I am concerned if we go down we might languish for a while.