CONFIMRED - Charlie Adam

[BR0B0T]

Second, it takes into account circumstances - picking players who are undervalued in their current situation or for cosmetic reasons (in the OG book, you can have Chad Bradford, Scott Hatteburg and Kevin Youkilis as example.). Adam's stats and output have been poor - really, really poor - recently. If our scouting has revealed to our satisfaction that's due to circumstance - mismatch of role in team, only playing in certain match situations, injuries ( ) - then he's possibly undervalued.

how can scouting identify the things you outlined

"he was shit but if he had played in role/match circumstances we didn't see him play in he would be good"

The OG example is a player who has quite "poor" stats because he's playing somewhere where the local conditions make it difficult to succeed in his role. Cricket and now baseball are very alert to this but in football we don't talk about it so much.

I guess if you put Xavi on a really bad pitch, he'd probably have worse pass completion than most top-level midfielders, but still the best pass completion in his team. A good scout would see that his poor stats compared to the league aren't reflective of his ability. Or the opposite - Ibrahima Sonko keeps giving away goals because he's being asked to play out of the back, but your team doesn't play from the back so you sign him anyway and he stops giving away goals. Or you go to scout Bobby Convey because his dribbling stats are really good and your manager thinks he might be able to convert him to play behind the striker... but then you realise Reading use the full width of a wide pitch and Convey doesn't leave the flank because he can only see out of one eye.

what's the OG book btw

[SCIAG]

how can scouting identify the things you outlined

"he was shit but if he had played in role/match circumstances we didn't see him play in he would be good"

The OG example is a player who has quite "poor" stats because he's playing somewhere where the local conditions make it difficult to succeed in his role. Cricket and now baseball are very alert to this but in football we don't talk about it so much.

I guess if you put Xavi on a really bad pitch, he'd probably have worse pass completion than most top-level midfielders, but still the best pass completion in his team. A good scout would see that his poor stats compared to the league aren't reflective of his ability. Or the opposite - Ibrahima Sonko keeps giving away goals because he's being asked to play out of the back, but your team doesn't play from the back so you sign him anyway and he stops giving away goals. Or you go to scout Bobby Convey because his dribbling stats are really good and your manager thinks he might be able to convert him to play behind the striker... but then you realise Reading use the full width of a wide pitch and Convey doesn't leave the flank because he can only see out of one eye.

what's the OG book btw

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis.

[The Enfield Royal71]

On reflecting the positives and negatives of this signing for a few days, I have concluded this is a truely poor signing and we are oxf*rd if we dont make a few more actual better ones.

[BR0B0T]

The OG example is a player who has quite "poor" stats because he's playing somewhere where the local conditions make it difficult to succeed in his role. Cricket and now baseball are very alert to this but in football we don't talk about it so much.

I guess if you put Xavi on a really bad pitch, he'd probably have worse pass completion than most top-level midfielders, but still the best pass completion in his team. A good scout would see that his poor stats compared to the league aren't reflective of his ability. Or the opposite - Ibrahima Sonko keeps giving away goals because he's being asked to play out of the back, but your team doesn't play from the back so you sign him anyway and he stops giving away goals. Or you go to scout Bobby Convey because his dribbling stats are really good and your manager thinks he might be able to convert him to play behind the striker... but then you realise Reading use the full width of a wide pitch and Convey doesn't leave the flank because he can only see out of one eye.

what's the OG book btw

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis.

sorry, I meant what does OG mean...I have the book

[SCIAG]

Oh, "OG" stands for "Original Gangster" but usually just means "original".

[leon]

Oh, "OG" stands for "Original Gangster" but usually just means "original".

Well In Charlie’ Adams case it stands for Old Gimmer

[Snowflake Royal]

That's clearly not my argument, BR0BOT.

tell me how they do it then

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.

[BR0B0T]

That's clearly not my argument, BR0BOT.

tell me how they do it then

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.

so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

[Snowflake Royal]

tell me how they do it then

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.

so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.

[BR0B0T]

There's a world beyond the nice safe landscape of numbers in a computer.

Skill and judgement.

so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.

Yo Ian, due to the asynchronous nature of this fine portal i think we're at crossed wires...

I'm talking specifically about Charlie Adam

[Snowflake Royal]

so you can judge from witnessing no evidence

fine if you want to call it intuition i.e. not_moneyball

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.

Yo Ian, due to the asynchronous nature of this fine portal i think we're at crossed wires...

I'm talking specifically about Charlie Adam

Many of those points could or do apply to scouting Adam.

Because the point is finding value where there is none perceived. Which includes players with poor stats you have reason to believe can be explained by circumstance.

Ie Adam suffering from injury over the last couple of seasons.

[BR0B0T]

It's not no evidence that a player is
1) out of position
2) playing in a style that doesn't suit their attributes
3) is returning from long term injury
4) is obviously injured
5) is being specifically targeted for marking out the game
6) is only playing against sides much better than his

You know... all that nice context to the numbers you can't just put in a spreadsheet easily but a human can judge.

Yo Ian, due to the asynchronous nature of this fine portal i think we're at crossed wires...

I'm talking specifically about Charlie Adam

Many of those points could or do apply to scouting Adam.

Because the point is finding value where there is none perceived. Which includes players with poor stats you have reason to believe can be explained by circumstance.

Ie Adam suffering from injury over the last couple of seasons.

how many 34 (in early Dec) year olds recovering from long term injuries go on to be good signings

he doesn't really possess any attributes such as pace or dribbling ability...in fact, he's pretty immobile

which would mean he relies upon passing where he doesn't have great stats in chance creation etc

on passing...obvs you can collect all the data and graph it together as a nodes etc

not sure how handy your linear algebra is but eigenvector_centrality* is a measure of how important any particular node is to the network

[BR0B0T]

the definition of 'value' seems to be pretty wishy-washy as well

get it in the betting thread a lot

...it's good value...
can you price up bets?
....no...
so you don't have a relative benchmark to assess it
...no, but it's still good value...
sure

[BR0B0T]

tbf he came on a free and has a one-year deal so not a massive risk tbf tbh

[Hound]

watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

[Stranded]

watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.

[Hound]

watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.

I know, I know. And not writing him off on the strength of it, but....

[Old Man Andrews]

watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.

I know, I know. And not writing him off on the strength of it, but....

Made only 29 league or cup starts in two seasons. A worry. Can see him being very much a "chuck him on with 85 minutes gone if we are winning" type signing who can possibly help the likes of Olise behind the scenes.

Olise has looked class all pre season btw.

[NewCorkSeth]

watching the highlights of the Brum friendly didn't exactly fill me with hope on him tbh. Couple of decent shots/passes but he is seriously lacking in mobility. Looked like a dad playing in a 'dads vs lads' game.

I see him as a plan B. Chuck him and Nova' and any other big lumps we have on, and play for free kicks and corners.

Hard to win free kicks in good areas when one of your CMs cant pass the ball. Also is hit and hope the best plan b we can think of?

[NewCorkSeth]

Pretty hard to get a feel for the guy though from 4 mins of highlights put together by the opponents. Not surprised if he needs a little bit more fitness at this stage - would imagine he may get a start at Wycombe.

I know, I know. And not writing him off on the strength of it, but....

Made only 29 league or cup starts in two seasons. A worry. Can see him being very much a "chuck him on with 85 minutes gone if we are winning" type signing who can possibly help the likes of Olise behind the scenes.

Olise has looked class all pre season btw.

That's good to hear. I have seen some highlights and thought he looked bright last season. I hope Olise steps it up.