Magic Number

[Silver Fox]

Yep, they might get dragged into the fight for 21st but not the fight for survival

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Hull are seven points ahead of us but played a game more. A bad run of results from them could see them dragged into the fight.

Lol

[Stranded]

Whilst defeat doesn't throw away the advantage, it will lift both clubs below us no end. Barnsley will know if they can close the gap by just 2 points then they will be able to go above us by winning their game in hand on the 26th.

I hate to pedant your normally excellent number crunching but if we lose tomorrow then Barnsley would only close to within 2 if they win the resulting game in hand

Probably badly worded on my part.

I meant Barnsley are 5 behind now, if we lose tomorrow they will still be 5 behind with a game in hand.

They have a better goal difference - so if over the 4 games played between our game and their game in hand, they can close the gap by 2 points (so 3 points adrift) - then they know a win v Blackpool will take them above us on GD with 2 games to go.

[Stranded]

Hull are seven points ahead of us but played a game more. A bad run of results from them could see them dragged into the fight.

Yeah, I just can't see 2 sides getting past them - we might as a result of playing them but any of the bottom 3 going past them as well would need them to hit promotion form and Hull not pick up another point (or 1 at most).

My target is 21st but also finishing within 6 points of Hull, that way we would have stayed up even without the deduction. Currently, on points won we are in the bottom 3 - 1 point behind Hull. We are being "saved" by Derby's deduction.

[Mr Angry]

I am confident that we will get enough points to stay up; I also think we will overtake Hull.

[Weymouth Royal]

6 more points should do it

[Stranded]

Update after tonight:

Reading 2 Stoke 1
Peterborough 1 Luton 1

Barnsley 14
Derby 10
Peterborough 9

Naturally, Barnsley & Peterborough play over Easter so one will definitely drop points.

Earliest we could be mathematically safe is Easter Monday.

Win v Cardiff with defeats for Derby & Peterborough will essentially see them needing near perfect records with us losing every game for them to stand a chance.

[Snowflake Royal]

I think one of Derby or Barnsley *might* manage 38 / 39 or possible even 40. But even if we lost all of our remaining games, which I don't think we will, I'm not convinced they'd catch us.

[paultheroyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 win and 2 draws or 2 wins and we are staying up!! URZ!!

[SouthDownsRoyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 win and 2 draws or 2 wins and we are staying up!! URZ!!

Oh ok

[Millsy]

Millsy predictor is better. Win all remaining games, no more point deductions and win court battle against Barnsley and we’ll stay up.

[tidus_mi2]

This whole Magic Number thing is just a poor knock-off of the Rougemeter.

[Mr Angry]

Update after tonight:

Reading 2 Stoke 1
Peterborough 1 Luton 1

Barnsley 14
Derby 10
Peterborough 9

Naturally, Barnsley & Peterborough play over Easter so one will definitely drop points.

Earliest we could be mathematically safe is Easter Monday.

Win v Cardiff with defeats for Derby & Peterborough will essentially see them needing near perfect records with us losing every game for them to stand a chance.

Realistically, with Peterborough's GD so much worse than ours (they would have to have a +23 goal swing to overtake our GD) their magic number is actually 8 rather than 9.

[Stranded]

Update after tonight:

Reading 2 Stoke 1
Peterborough 1 Luton 1

Barnsley 14
Derby 10
Peterborough 9

Naturally, Barnsley & Peterborough play over Easter so one will definitely drop points.

Earliest we could be mathematically safe is Easter Monday.

Win v Cardiff with defeats for Derby & Peterborough will essentially see them needing near perfect records with us losing every game for them to stand a chance.

Realistically, with Peterborough's GD so much worse than ours (they would have to have a +23 goal swing to overtake our GD) their magic number is actually 8 rather than 9.

Oh yeah, I've ignored GD on purpose as there are too many variables, so just kept it on what we need to do to finish 1 point ahead of each side.

[Mr Angry]

Update after tonight:

Reading 2 Stoke 1
Peterborough 1 Luton 1

Barnsley 14
Derby 10
Peterborough 9

Naturally, Barnsley & Peterborough play over Easter so one will definitely drop points.

Earliest we could be mathematically safe is Easter Monday.

Win v Cardiff with defeats for Derby & Peterborough will essentially see them needing near perfect records with us losing every game for them to stand a chance.

Realistically, with Peterborough's GD so much worse than ours (they would have to have a +23 goal swing to overtake our GD) their magic number is actually 8 rather than 9.

Oh yeah, I've ignored GD on purpose as there are too many variables, so just kept it on what we need to do to finish 1 point ahead of each side.

Fair enough Stranded; the variability of GD does complicate things.

For example, Barnsley are 2 goals better off than us at the moment, but if they lose their next game 2-0, we go "above" them by virtue of scoring more goals......

[Stranded]

Update after defeats for us, Barnsley & Derby and a point for Peterborough:

Barnsley 11
Derby & Peterborough 7

Nobody can be relegated before the Easter Monday fixtures.

Friday's games:

Sheffield Utd v Reading
Swansea V Barnsley
Derby v Fulham
Peterborough v Blackburn

[tidus_mi2]

Tough games all round, Barnsley and Peterborough maybe having the easier games, especially a post-Brereton injury Blackburn.

[oldebiscuit]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

[Zip]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

40 points is rarely enough to avoid relegation from the Championship.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

What a load of bollocks this is, magic number criteria? oxf*rd off! Just get 40 points and a team is generally safe.
That’s the way it is and the way it’s always been.
It’s not foolproof, and in exceptional seasons it’s not enough, but this is not an exceptional season so just get the 40 and that will do.

Lol