Magic Number Thread

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it:

Points: 59 (+1)
Available: 27 (-3)
Played: 37 (9)
Play Off Magic Number: 30 (-3)
Survival Magic Number: 5 (-1)

[tidus_mi2]

I make it:

Points: 59 (+1)
Available: 27 (-3)
Played: 37 (9)
Play Off Magic Number: 30 (-3)
Survival Magic Number: 5 (-1)

Exciting, could mathematically be safe after the next round of fixtures then.

[stealthpapes]

We're a game swing from slipping into POs as well.

9 games left.

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it:

Points: 59 (+1)
Available: 27 (-3)
Played: 37 (9)
Play Off Magic Number: 30 (-3)
Survival Magic Number: 5 (-1)

Exciting, could mathematically be safe after the next round of fixtures then.

Yep, just a game or three from certain.

And we're gamely clinging on to the PO chase, always just slightly outside our control, with at least one of Huddersfield and Stockport still having to drop points.

[tidus_mi2]

We're a game swing from slipping into POs as well.

9 games left.

We definitely could do it, Hunt just needs to turn a couple of these draws into wins and we'll do it. Imagine a play-offs involving ourselves, Wycombe and Charlton? All the easy teams to travel to and we'd probably end up playing Stockport in the semis

[Royal_jimmy]

Given the morass on the ownership, talk of liquidation, a lack of signings and having to lose Selles, Azeez and Smith to other clubs I think we've done very well to be in a shout of the playoffs in the last batch of games in the season. Even if we don't make the playoffs it's been a good build on last year and our youngsters have another year of experience behind them.

[Sanguine]

Given the morass on the ownership, talk of liquidation, a lack of signings and having to lose Selles, Azeez and Smith to other clubs I think we've done very well to be in a shout of the playoffs in the last batch of games in the season. Even if we don't make the playoffs it's been a good build on last year and our youngsters have another year of experience behind them.

I think 'very well' is selling us way short. To be anything but staring relegation in the face is achievement these players should carry proudly for the rest of their careers. A bunch of young players, many with little experience of league football at all 18 months ago, with the squad getting stripped of its quality every six months. It is nothing short of totally astonishing.

[stealthpapes]

Survival Magic Number: NO LONGER RELEVANT

[Dirk Gently]

And Play Off Magic Number now less than Points Available - it's back in our own hands now, for the first time since the end of January.

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it:

Points: 62 (+3)
Available: 24 (-3)
Played: 38 (8)
Play Off Magic Number: 24 (-6)
Survival Magic Number: -1 (-6) - OFFICIALLY Mathematically safe from relegation barring points deductions.
Less so from League expulsion.

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it:

Points: 62 (+0)
Available: 21 (-3)
Played: 39 (7)
Play Off Magic Number: 23 (-1)
Survival Magic Number: N/A

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it:

Points: 65 (+3)
Available: 18 (-3)
Played: 40 (6)
Play Off Magic Number: 20 (-3)
Survival Magic Number: N/A

[Snowflake Royal]

I make it:

Points: 68 (+3)
Available: 15 (-3)
Played: 41 (5)
Play Off Magic Number: 14 (-6)
Survival Magic Number: N/A

Incidentally, we're now one win away from being mathematically safe from relegation even with a -12 points deduction.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Its impossible to get 14 points from 5 games so its 15

[Snowflake Royal]

Its impossible to get 14 points from 5 games so its 15

That isn't what the magic number is .

It's the combination of points gained by us and points dropped by others.

So 2 draws for Bolton (-4), 3 wins and a draw for us (-10).

[Mr Angry]

Its impossible to get 14 points from 5 games so its 15

That's not how this calculation works; it isn't just about one team gaining points - it also takes into consideration other teams losing points.

For example, if after the next game we win, Huddersfield win and Bolton lose, that would mean the magic number drops from 14 points, to 9 points; this is because we would have gained 3 points but Bolton's maximum total would have just REDUCED by 3 points, and whilst Huddersfield would have leapfrogged Bolton, they would only be a point closer to us than Bolton.

At this stage of the season, with games running out, the magic number can move dramatically and quickly. Put it this way; we win the next 2 and draw the third, whilst Bolton lose their next 2 and draw their third, they can't catch us.

[stealthpapes]

At this stage of the season, with games running out, the magic number can move dramatically and quickly.

Yup.
A shock loss and a team can be all but out of it.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Its impossible to get 14 points from 5 games so its 15

That's not how this calculation works; it isn't just about one team gaining points - it also takes into consideration other teams losing points.

For example, if after the next game we win, Huddersfield win and Bolton lose, that would mean the magic number drops from 14 points, to 9 points; this is because we would have gained 3 points but Bolton's maximum total would have just REDUCED by 3 points, and whilst Huddersfield would have leapfrogged Bolton, they would only be a point closer to us than Bolton.

At this stage of the season, with games running out, the magic number can move dramatically and quickly. Put it this way; we win the next 2 and draw the third, whilst Bolton lose their next 2 and draw their third, they can't catch us.

That's still irrational.... so if the "magic number" is the amount we need to guarantee staying above all teams below us as at current state of play currently Bolton have the best chance of catching us points wise. So if they get 15 points we only stay ahead of them if we get 15 ourselves....if we win 4 and draw 1 we are in the hands of goal difference.

[rabidbee]

It's a dynamic number, it's a constant recalculation of how many points we need to take us one point ahead of the maximum all of the other teams in the running can achieve. So it falls as we gain points, but it also falls as others teams fail to gain points (and equally it rises as we drop points if other teams pick them up). It's not only about our results.

We won the league in 2012 when we weren't even playing, the magic number falling to zero because Southampton lost (and could no longer catch us), By the same token, Birmingham City posted last night that they would be promoted if they beat Peterborough *or* if Wycombe failed to win at Huddersfield. They got there by winning, but they could also have got there if they had lost but Wycombe had only drawn.

So if we, Bolton and Huddersfield lose on Saturday the magic number would fall to 11; if we and Bolton lose but Huddersfield win it falls to 12; if we win but Bolton and Huddersfield lose it will fall to eight; if we and Huddersfield win but Bolton lose it will fall to nine.

It's not only about our results.

[Snowflake Royal]

Its impossible to get 14 points from 5 games so its 15

That's not how this calculation works; it isn't just about one team gaining points - it also takes into consideration other teams losing points.

For example, if after the next game we win, Huddersfield win and Bolton lose, that would mean the magic number drops from 14 points, to 9 points; this is because we would have gained 3 points but Bolton's maximum total would have just REDUCED by 3 points, and whilst Huddersfield would have leapfrogged Bolton, they would only be a point closer to us than Bolton.

At this stage of the season, with games running out, the magic number can move dramatically and quickly. Put it this way; we win the next 2 and draw the third, whilst Bolton lose their next 2 and draw their third, they can't catch us.

That's still irrational.... so if the "magic number" is the amount we need to guarantee staying above all teams below us as at current state of play currently Bolton have the best chance of catching us points wise. So if they get 15 points we only stay ahead of them if we get 15 ourselves....if we win 4 and draw 1 we are in the hands of goal difference.

No, it's mathematically exact and covers all the variables. Which is the point.