Magic Number Thread

[Snowflake Royal]

Seeing as we're at full on panic stations, thought we may as well bring back the magic number thread.

For those not familiar, the Magic Number is the combined points you need to gain/opponents drop to mathematically guarantee a finishing position.

For example, I think Northampton currently have the fourth lowest maximum points total in the division at 96 (21+3×25). So to guarantee survival, we need 97 points. We already have 31, so that's a total of 66 for us to gain and Northampton to drop. If we beat them next up, that's a six point swing in our favour. Caveat being if other results switch up the table that affects things too.

We can combine optimism with pessimism.

Points Achieved: 31
Points Available: 78
Play Off Magic Number: 81
Survival Magic Number: 66

That's a quick and dirty calculation, I'll check it later.

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Achieved: 34 (+3)
Points Available: 75 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 76 (-5)
Survival Magic Number: 60 (-6)

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Achieved: 37 (+3)
Points Available: 72 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 70 (-6)
Survival Magic Number: 56 (-4)

[skipper]

Cheltenham went down with 44 points last year, Burton stayed up with 46. Year before Cambridge stayed up with 46 too. Fleetwood stayed up with only 40 2 seasons ago.

Not that I'm even remotely aware of what the usual "safe margin" is, but Let's say it's 46. We have 9 to get in an entire half a season and 1 game.

I'd punt on the fact that we'll win the next game and that we're safe as houses for being in league 1 next season.

[Snowflake Royal]

Cheltenham went down with 44 points last year, Burton stayed up with 46. Year before Cambridge stayed up with 46 too. Fleetwood stayed up with only 40 2 seasons ago.

Not that I'm even remotely aware of what the usual "safe margin" is, but Let's say it's 46. We have 9 to get in an entire half a season and 1 game.

I'd punt on the fact that we'll win the next game and that we're safe as houses for being in league 1 next season.

Mean and median come out at about 47 and 48. Although the shortened Covid year affects the mean a little

[WestYorksRoyal]

5 more wins is 52 points which is near certain to be enough. I can't see relegation happening, even with January sales.

[Brogue]

5 more wins is 52 points which is near certain to be enough. I can't see relegation happening, even with January sales.

Unless Administration happens…

[Snowflake Royal]

5 more wins is 52 points which is near certain to be enough. I can't see relegation happening, even with January sales.

Unless Administration happens…

Administration currently requires Dai to put us there still, which he's shown no inclination for. Unless there's a Court case outcome that takes it out of his hands.

I'd be more worried about more 3-9 point deductions for failure to pay players/HMRC. But we're just about to hit January and almost certainly sell at least one player for a few hundred £k up front at least, which should have us see out the season.

So we could be pretty safe from points deductions within days.

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Achieved: 40 (+3)
Points Available: 69 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 66 (-4)
Survival Magic Number: 50 (-5)

Franchise correctly spotted I'd got the survival wrong by a point last time

[Brogue]

Points Achieved: 40 (+3)
Points Available: 69 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 66 (-4)
Survival Magic Number: 50 (-5)

Franchise correctly spotted I'd got the survival wrong by a point last time

Never particularly followed this magic number stuff. Is this formula saying 66 points in total will guarantee a playoff place, and 50 points total will mathematically guarantee survival?

Or is it saying we would need 66 more points to guarantee a play off points and 50 more to survive?

[AthleticoSpizz]

Deductions pending, of course?

Just get the points on the board, that’s all that matters right now

[Mid Sussex Royal]

My magic number to avoid relegation (subject to no points deductions) is 2.

That's the amount of points we need if the bottom 4 maintain their current points per game for the rest of the season.

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Achieved: 40 (+3)
Points Available: 69 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 66 (-4)
Survival Magic Number: 50 (-5)

Franchise correctly spotted I'd got the survival wrong by a point last time

Never particularly followed this magic number stuff. Is this formula saying 66 points in total will guarantee a playoff place, and 50 points total will mathematically guarantee survival?

Or is it saying we would need 66 more points to guarantee a play off points and 50 more to survive?

The latter. It's a countdown basically, once it hits zero, it's guaranteed.

[Snowflake Royal]

My magic number to avoid relegation (subject to no points deductions) is 2.

That's the amount of points we need if the bottom 4 maintain their current points per game for the rest of the season.

That's not what a magic number is.

[MartinRdg]

My magic number to avoid relegation (subject to no points deductions) is 2.

That's the amount of points we need if the bottom 4 maintain their current points per game for the rest of the season.

That's not what a magic number is.

Here we go - the annual explanation of what a magic number is....

[Snowflake Royal]

My magic number to avoid relegation (subject to no points deductions) is 2.

That's the amount of points we need if the bottom 4 maintain their current points per game for the rest of the season.

That's not what a magic number is.

Here we go - the annual explanation of what a magic number is....

I mean it's literally in the opening post.

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Achieved: 41 (+1)
Points Available: 66 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 66 (-1) (didn't go far enough down the league and include Bolton in 10th after Cambridge
Survival Magic Number: 49 (-1)

[Royal_jimmy]

Bit early for a thread like this isn't it. No way is 80 odd points needed to stay up

[Snowflake Royal]

Points Achieved: 41 (+0)
Matches Played: 25
Points Available: 63 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 62 (-4)
Survival Magic Number: 46 (-3)

It's probably only me that cares, but I like to keep ticking this off and forgot with the gap between the last two league games.

[Dirk Gently]

Points Achieved: 41 (+0)
Points Available: 63 (-3)
Play Off Magic Number: 62 (-4)
Survival Magic Number: 46 (-3)

It's probably only me that cares, but I like to keep ticking this off and forgot with the gap between the last two league games.

I care - this is one of the few threads I regularly visit here.

I'd care even more if you could add in the number of matches played. I know I can always divide "Points Available" by three and then subtract that number from 46, but I'm lazy and it'd be easier to keep track if you could just bung the "Matches Played" in for me.