Magic Number

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Peterboro are down.

They've got got Forest and Millwall next (now 7th so well in playoff mix) and because of their GD cannot drop any points. They're gone

That result today has pretty much relegated Barnsley too, they're not winning at Hudds

[Dixie Norm]

Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Put another way; both Peterboro now need to get 2 points per game (ppg) more than us to overhaul us, Derby (due to better GD) need 1.8ppg, and Barnsley 1.5 ppg.

If all 4 of the games in the next round of fixtures end in defeats for the bottom 4, that ppg increases - 2.5ppg for Peterboro, 2ppg for Derby & 1.8ppg for Barnsley.

I appreciate "until mathematically certain" etc etc, but I genuinely just can't see any one of those 3 teams suddenly finding that level of form from where they are right now.

Just a point on this, in fairness to Peterborough, only 1 defeat in 6, 3 wins in that time with 11 points taken from a possible 18. I appreciate it's not the ppg ratio they needed, but that's a fair crack at it and its where I was coming from on a few occasions by referencing some teams usually do "find some form" when it comes down to the last few games.

Thankfully though, we've been in good form ourselves and that's what is keeping us up, which is exactly how it should be as well.

[Mr Angry]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!

What if none out of us, Posh or Barnsley get another point?

We stay up even without getting a draw.

Thats where the PTR falls down.

[Mr Angry]

Put another way; both Peterboro now need to get 2 points per game (ppg) more than us to overhaul us, Derby (due to better GD) need 1.8ppg, and Barnsley 1.5 ppg.

If all 4 of the games in the next round of fixtures end in defeats for the bottom 4, that ppg increases - 2.5ppg for Peterboro, 2ppg for Derby & 1.8ppg for Barnsley.

I appreciate "until mathematically certain" etc etc, but I genuinely just can't see any one of those 3 teams suddenly finding that level of form from where they are right now.

Just a point on this, in fairness to Peterborough, only 1 defeat in 6, 3 wins in that time with 11 points taken from a possible 18. I appreciate it's not the ppg ratio they needed, but that's a fair crack at it and its where I was coming from on a few occasions by referencing some teams usually do "find some form" when it comes down to the last few games.

Thankfully though, we've been in good form ourselves and that's what is keeping us up, which is exactly how it should be as well.

Yeah, credit where credit is due, Posh have had a real go.

They hung onto Ferguson for too long; McCann didn't have enough time to turn their season around (much like we hung onto Pauno for too long - though I suspect there were financial reasons for that).

[paultheroyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!

So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?

It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!

So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?

It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.

Bit flawed m9

[SouthDownsRoyal]

Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game

As hugely unlikely as it may be, until it’s mathematically certain I’m not taking anything for granted

[paultheroyal]

So what we finish on 42 points and Posh win all their games ending on 43 points and we're staying up?

It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.

Bit flawed m9

It’s pretty accurate so far gr8 m8

[Hound]

Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game

Not saying it’s impossible but that’s got to be really unlikely

Suspect it’ll be all over next Saturday

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Do people remember the required scenario for when we got relegated from the Prem with Sir Steve? We're down to the last few games and anything can happen. I still expect this to go down to the last game

Not saying it’s impossible but that’s got to be really unlikely

Suspect it’ll be all over next Saturday

This really, we only require a win and then we've made absolutely certain that we survive, regardless of what the others do (or 3 draws). Even though West Brom and Luton are tough fixtures, I'd back us to get 3 points from those fixtures.

Considering it's our form that is seeing us survive, I'd anticipate we do the necessary on Saturday against Hull. Hopefully we can look to get above 21st as well before the season finishes, but let's just make sure the other two go down this weekend.

[Pepe the Horseman]

Part of me wants it to go to the West Brom game for the celebrations, but even if we lose on Saturday it'll be over. Can't see any way Barnsley beat Huddersfield or Posh beat Forest.

[Stranded]

Yep, Huddersfield are on a roll - just don't see Barnsley getting a sniff there with their away form.

Fully expecting to kick off Saturday in a 2 horse race with Peterborough, which fair play to them, I don't think anyone thought they would likely be the last man standing of the bottom 3.

Have a sneaking feeling we'll win at Hull but our record there is shocking, would be very Reading to stay up on the back of an away defeat.

[Snowflake Royal]

It’s the PTR predictor. Get with it.

Bit flawed m9

It’s pretty accurate so far gr8 m8

Why don't you start your own thread so you can get the credit you deserve, rather than being lost in this one.

[paultheroyal]

Bit flawed m9

It’s pretty accurate so far gr8 m8

Why don't you start your own thread so you can get the credit you deserve, rather than being lost in this one.

Its following a similar theme, mightily accurate so its ok here thank you x

[Stranded]

And then there was one.

Barnsley really are awful and defeat tonight means they join Derby in the 0 club.

Only Peterborough remain. The magic number sits at 3, though realistically it's 2 with GD.

So a win for us tomorrow or a defeat for Posh, job done. Draws in both games will also do it.

Posh draw and defeat for us all but confirms survival too barring the sort of score lines that would see a match fixing investigation.

[Franchise FC]

That's better

A timely update

[Royal_jimmy]

Even if we lose tomorrow and Posh beat Nottingham Forest I think we'll finish the job by beating West Brom next week. Realistically I can see both us and Posh getting beat tomorrow confirming our safety.

[paultheroyal]

PTR predictor is the only stat you need. 1 draw and we are staying up!! URZ!!

Didn’t let you down guys, didn’t need the draw in the end, but very accurate throughout.

PTR predictor is the only stat you need for future campaigns.

WE ARE STAYING UP!!

[Millsy]

Cool, now you can relax and learn maths.