The Magic Number Thread

[Mr Angry]

For those interested, Opta think we only have a 2.9% chance of relegation. I wish I shared their confidence.

Well, a few have posted that we are "90%" there, so a bit less optimistic than Opta.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

For those interested, Opta think we only have a 2.9% chance of relegation. I wish I shared their confidence.

That's interesting, and I find that very re-assuring.

When I look at their percentages for other leagues I have always been in general agreement with them. They're not stupid and look at run ins, form and injuries.

The problem is us lot on here look at the worst case scenario....and the magic number is stupid this near the end of the season as there are still games where sides below are playing each other which will of course make it lower, but I can't be bothered to work it out.

[rabidbee]

Magic number down to 10 (12), with 12 to play for.

[Franchise FC]

Magic number down to 10 (12), with 12 to play for.

Are you sure it’s not 11 ?

[edit]
No, you’re right
Port Vale threw me

[WestYorksRoyal]

I said before today we were 90% safe. It's probably 95% now given results. Even with 4 losses from 4 I'd fancy our chances. But Tuesday is a great opportunity to get to 99.9%.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Magic number down to 10 (12), with 12 to play for.

Are you sure it’s not 11 ?

[edit]
No, you’re right
Port Vale threw me

You can't get 11 points from 4 games so has to be 12

[Snowflake Royal]

Magic number down to 10 (12), with 12 to play for.

Are you sure it’s not 11 ?

[edit]
No, you’re right
Port Vale threw me

You can't get 11 points from 4 games so has to be 12

[Crusader Royal]

Magic number down to 10 (12), with 12 to play for.

Are you sure it’s not 11 ?

[edit]
No, you’re right
Port Vale threw me

You can't get 11 points from 4 games so has to be 12

Yes you can. Win all 4 then fail to pay half your players. Should see a 1 point deduction…..

[Clyde1998]

Definitely 10 (12).

Of those currently on less than 50 points (us and lower), the maximum number of points they can get is:

• Reading - 58
• Shrewsbury - 58
• Cambridge - 60
• Burton - 52
• Port Vale - 55
• Cheltenham - 56
• Fleetwood - 49
• Carlisle (R) - 39

Ourselves, Port Vale, Cheltenham and Fleetwood are the only one of these sides (who could still survive) playing in midweek - Port Vale on the Wednesday, others on the Tuesday. I believe these are all due to international call ups last month, which the exception of the Port Vale game which was due to a frozen pitch in February (the date it would've been played was when they had to play us after the abandonment).

Shrewsbury, Cambridge, Burton, Port Vale, Cheltenham and Fleetwood play the following midweek, where we aren't. I believe these were also due to internationals last month as well, except Port Vale - a frozen pitch back in January (earliest available date due to other postponements being rearranged and Wycombe's Trophy run) - and Burton vs Cheltenham - a waterlogged pitch in February.

Cambridge and Cheltenham play the midweek before the final day of the season. These games were moved due to Wycombe and Peterborough playing the Trophy final today.

All sides play on every Saturday between now at the end of the season.

[genome]

Until the end of the season, Reading will only be facing teams whose names begin with B.

Make of that what you will.

[WestYorksRoyal]

On Friday you could get 7/1 on us going down. It is now 16/1.

Opta had a 2.9% chance on Friday, and it hasn't been updated for yesterday yet.

[SCIAG]

Magic number down to 10 (12), with 12 to play for.

Are you sure it’s not 11 ?

[edit]
No, you’re right
Port Vale threw me

You can't get 11 points from 4 games so has to be 12

3 wins plus opponent dropping 2.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Are you sure it’s not 11 ?

[edit]
No, you’re right
Port Vale threw me

You can't get 11 points from 4 games so has to be 12

3 wins plus opponent dropping 2.

I thought the number was based on everyone's maximum points

[rabidbee]

Yeah. So if Vale draw their next match, their maximum possible points tally would drop by 2 points.

[Mr Angry]

So theoretically, we could be safe by 5pm on Saturday.

[WestYorksRoyal]

So theoretically, we could be safe by 5pm on Saturday.

What would need to happen? From what I can see:

- If we get 4 points and Burton lose on Saturday, they mathematically can't catch us (they don't play midweek). Realistically a 3 point gain on them is enough given GD.

- If we get 4 points and Vale lose to both P'boro and Exeter, they can't catch us. Again, in practice, any mix of results that sees us gain 3 points more on them is sufficient given GD.

- Cheltenham will have 4 games left after the weekend, so we need a 13 point gap (it's currently 8 ). That means we need 2 wins and for them to get a maximum of 1 point (though note the GD again). They host already relegated Carlisle tomorrow and woefully out of form Rovers on Saturday, which helps their cause. 2 huge pressure games at this stage of the season, though.

So we need 2 of those 3 scenarios to happen this week to confirm it. Win tomorrow and it's definitely possible - plenty of Barnsley tickets still on sale so I assume we'll see a rush if we win tomorrow.

These maths don't take into account that Cheltenham and Burton play each other next Tuesday. So if we get out of reach from Port Vale, it will likely be enough. If our respective leads over Burton and Cheltenham at FT on Saturday are 7 and 10 points, only 1 of them can catch us.

[Mr Angry]

The thing with something being "theoretical" is that it could happen; so if we win twice (tomorrow and Saturday) we would have 52 points.

In the event that Port Vale, Cheltenham and Fleetwood lose both their games midweek and Saturday, none of them can get more than 50 points, which means we would be safe as we would then definitely finish above Carlisle, Fleetwood, Cheltenham and Port Vale.

[Forbury Lion]

Football Maths, Love it.

Fingers crossed we're doing it at the other end of the table next season trying to work out how many points we need to stop teams catching us.

[Elm Park Kid]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

[Snowflake Royal]

You can bin the thread for another season guys.

No, no, no. It's not mathmatically certain yet.


16 Charlton 62
17 Cambridge 60
18 Reading 58 (56)
19 Shrewsbury 58
20 Port Vale 55
‐---------------------------
21 Cheltenham 53
22 Burton 52
23 Fleetwood 49
24 Carlisle 39

Magic number is 5 (7)?