Coronavirus outbreak

[windermereROYAL]

Spain and Italy infections appear to be levelling off slightly, Is it any coincidence it coincides with the arrival of the warm weather in southern Europe?

[Snowball]

Interesting Quote

"An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading.

But those days are long gone.

We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home.

Now only those few who had a test confirmation before dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council Health Committee.


Quoted for New York Stat on WorldoMeter



Good Summary of New York City Corona Demographics

Age - - - - Cases - - per mill - - HOSP - - %age - - Deaths - - Death-Rate - -

00-17 - -- 01,135 - - 00,650 - - 0,101 - - 08.90% - - 0,002 - - 00.18% - - 1 in 555
18-44 - - 25,383 - - 00,756 - - 2,214 - - 08.72% - - 0,140 - - 00.55% - - 1 in 182
45-64 - - 23,135 - - 11,250 - - 5,295 - - 22.89% - - 0,587 - - 02.54% - - 1 in 39
65-74 - - 08,260 - - 11,800 - - 3,172 - - 38.40% - - 0,612 - - 07.41% - - 1 in 13
75-99 - - 06,905 - - 12,660 - - 3,423 - - 49.57% - - 1,131 - - 16.38% - - 1 in 6

64,818 - - - Confirmed Cases
14,205 - - - Hospitalised - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (21.92% of Confirmed Cases)
02,472 - - - Dead- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.81% of Confirmed Cases)(1 in 26)


54% Male
66% Had Underlying conditions

34% Queens
27% Brooklyn
20% the Bronx
14% Manhattan
06% Staten Island

"200 Deaths per Day are now going under-reported"

People turning up at centres with symptoms but not (yet) requiring hospitalisation are being sent away untested. Thus like the UK ATM the "Confirmed Cases" number are more serious infections/reactions.

[Snowball]

Spain and Italy infections appear to be levelling off slightly, Is it any coincidence it coincides with the arrival of the warm weather in southern Europe?

Effect of their lockdowns.

They both locked down before the UK and it takes 1-2 weeks to begin to affect new cases a further 2 weeks to affect death numbers

[ShinPad]

This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?

[muirinho]

This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?

I know I've posted on this thread, but - why is it on the team board?

[Snowball]

Yeah we have loads of live football to discuss


Spain now has 3,003 Confirmed Cases per million. That is 0.3%. This, so far 99.7% have not been shown to be positive. If EVERY one of these people has it or has had it, that ration is 332 unseen positives to 1 confirmed case 332:1

That 332 comes down every day

[One87One]

This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?

I know I've posted on this thread, but - why is it on the team board?

^ this, and Snowbollock's stats ffs. Surely you can put your energy into something more useful and rewarding?

[Snowball]

This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?

I know I've posted on this thread, but - why is it on the team board?

^ this, and Snowbollock's stats ffs. Surely you can put your energy into something more useful and rewarding?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52198946

There you go. Reading's Next Manager

[SouthDownsRoyal]

This thread is utterly bizarre, on a forum about Reading football club first team, a random guy posts his interpretation of the limited and flawed data on a pandemic outbreak, and every other post is someone criticising him, or asking him to stop, and then he gets angry about it. Seriously, what's the point of any of it

Any one remember John salako? Why don't we get any posts remembering John salako. Does John salako have corona virus?

[SCIAG]

John Salako has not been diagnosed with coronavirus. Seems to be using isolation as an opportunity to promote tournaments on EA Sport's FIFA 20.

No h8 for the guy but we got him at the wrong end of his career. Really good in Division Two, fine in our first season in Division One, then not up to it.

Maximum ratio of missed cases:detected cases is a complete waste of everyone's time. Uninformative, useless, uninteresting. Worst. Stat. Ever.

[Jagermesiter1871]

I don't really know the stats on John Solako but as a 9 year old I thought he was incredible.

[Horsham Royal]

I don't really know the stats on John Solako but as a 9 year old I thought he was incredible.

Who did he play for at 9 ?

[Old Man Andrews]

FAO Snowball

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opin ... stics.html

[Hendo]

I don't really know the stats on John Solako but as a 9 year old I thought he was incredible.

Who did he play for at 9 ?

Chuckle.

[Snowball]

FAO Snowball

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opin ... stics.html

Ho-Ho.


I believe the opposite is true, BTW (and it's not causality). Those who are anxious may seek out the stats. That doesn't mean those who seek out the stats are anxious. Philosophy and Logic 101. (Yes, I did, a year at Brikbeck and an Open University year).

I am NOT anxious about Covid personally. I have a 100% chance of dying. I've had my 3 score years + 10. Now it's extra-time, I have been kicked for 90 minutes and lots of bits hurt. I'm not sad about my dying, whether it's this week, this month, or some time in the next couple of years, or if I live (Heaven forbid to be a hundred). I know I'm not crazy about being old, having aching joints, a lot less sex. What's the problem with dying?

The more I know and understand about Covid the less anxious I feel.

What I dislike personally is uncertainty. Discovering a real death rate, is, for me, calming, and it would be calming if it ended up 50%. I don't CARE. It's just fact, history. If it was 100% I think that would be quite cool. To be there to see the end of it all. Wow! I can do nothing about the virus, the research. All I can do is follow the isolation and distance guidelines, look after the two refugees in my care.

The only vague anxiety (if that's the best word) but I can do nothing about it, so it's irrelevant - is my offspring. Any sadness (anxiety) that I might have (about my dying) is the thought of my kids being upset. Two would shake it off pretty easily, the two girls not so much

I suppose, deep down I have low-level anxieties about my kids dying, but frankly odds of thousands to 1 (at least) is not something to be anxious about.

What is, is, what will be, will be.

[Snowball]

Here is a lovely set of statistics

Yesterday the Govt/NHS whoever published the following (without percentages)

213,181 Tests
055,242 Positives
018,589 Hospitalised
006,155 Hospitalised Dead

SO?

26% of tests positive
33% of THOSE end up in hospital
33% of those hospitalised patients die

So that is`:

of the 26% found positive, a third (8.75% of those tested) end up in hospital, and a third of THOSE (2.9% of positives) die. I find it calming to get REAL figures. We know that there are SOME undocumented cases. Be that 5:1, 10:1, 50:1, 100:1, 200:1 it doesn't MATTER.

A third of a third (one ninth = 11% of those going into hospital for Covid are dying (if the NHS stats are honest)

We now have a very decent rule of thumb that says if we test positive we have a 3% chance of dying in hospital. oxf*rd I can live with that, and I can live with my older siblings dying, my younger siblings dying, me dying. It happens. My sibs and me together are probably around 10% if we get it and are hospitalised. We are probably wouldn't be a lot better than that if there was no Corona.

[bcubed]

FAO Snowball

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opin ... stics.html

Ho-Ho.


I believe the opposite is true, BTW (and it's not causality). Those who are anxious may seek out the stats. That doesn't mean those who seek out the stats are anxious. Philosophy and Logic 101. (Yes, I did, a year at Brikbeck and an Open University year).

I am NOT anxious about Covid personally. I have a 100% chance of dying. I've had my 3 score years + 10. Now it's extra-time, I have been kicked for 90 minutes and lots of bits hurt. I'm not sad about my dying, whether it's this week, this month, or some time in the next couple of years, or if I live (Heaven forbid to be a hundred). I know I'm not crazy about being old, having aching joints, a lot less sex. What's the problem with dying?

The more I know and understand about Covid the less anxious I feel.

What I dislike personally is uncertainty. Discovering a real death rate, is, for me, calming, and it would be calming if it ended up 50%. I don't CARE. It's just fact, history. If it was 100% I think that would be quite cool. To be there to see the end of it all. Wow! I can do nothing about the virus, the research. All I can do is follow the isolation and distance guidelines, look after the two refugees in my care.

The only vague anxiety (if that's the best word) but I can do nothing about it, so it's irrelevant - is my offspring. Any sadness (anxiety) that I might have (about my dying) is the thought of my kids being upset. Two would shake it off pretty easily, the two girls not so much

I suppose, deep down I have low-level anxieties about my kids dying, but frankly odds of thousands to 1 (at least) is not something to be anxious about.

What is, is, what will be, will be.

That’s all totally reasonable, obviously
But isn’t the article saying that for most people looking at stats results in increased anxiety?
Not that anxious people look for stats

[Snowball]

FAO Snowball

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/opin ... stics.html

Ho-Ho.


I believe the opposite is true, BTW (and it's not causality). Those who are anxious may seek out the stats. That doesn't mean those who seek out the stats are anxious. Philosophy and Logic 101. (Yes, I did, a year at Brikbeck and an Open University year).

I am NOT anxious about Covid personally. I have a 100% chance of dying. I've had my 3 score years + 10. Now it's extra-time, I have been kicked for 90 minutes and lots of bits hurt. I'm not sad about my dying, whether it's this week, this month, or some time in the next couple of years, or if I live (Heaven forbid to be a hundred). I know I'm not crazy about being old, having aching joints, a lot less sex. What's the problem with dying?

The more I know and understand about Covid the less anxious I feel.

What I dislike personally is uncertainty. Discovering a real death rate, is, for me, calming, and it would be calming if it ended up 50%. I don't CARE. It's just fact, history. If it was 100% I think that would be quite cool. To be there to see the end of it all. Wow! I can do nothing about the virus, the research. All I can do is follow the isolation and distance guidelines, look after the two refugees in my care.

The only vague anxiety (if that's the best word) but I can do nothing about it, so it's irrelevant - is my offspring. Any sadness (anxiety) that I might have (about my dying) is the thought of my kids being upset. Two would shake it off pretty easily, the two girls not so much

I suppose, deep down I have low-level anxieties about my kids dying, but frankly odds of thousands to 1 (at least) is not something to be anxious about.

What is, is, what will be, will be.

That’s all totally reasonable, obviously
But isn’t the article saying that for most people looking at stats results in increased anxiety?
Not that anxious people look for stats

Haven't read it properly yet, just glanced.

I know when *I* am anxious, and whatever the current feelings might be called, it isn't that.

I like numbers, facts (who'd've guessed?). Like "Who is best at predicting Reading games?"

Answer: we are all appallingly bad, but the least bad Nobbers are...

Maybe people are just different (who'd've guessed-2?) but I want to be as informed as possible. So, for example, I understand, this morning that 2/3 of those intubated die anyway. At my age, though I'm fit for my age, I'd guess I'd be nearer 80% goodbye, maybe 90% so maybe I should have one of those notes in my top pocket that says "Don't Bother".

Of course, how you feel when you really ARE dying, well, I dunno, do I? I might be, "Take the tube out that bastard in Bed 6 and give it to me. I WANT IT!"

[Snowball]

I like numbers, facts (who'd've guessed?). Like "Who is best at predicting Reading games?"

Answer: we are all appallingly bad, but the least bad Nobbers are...

Buried in those numbers would be who is best at predicting home games v away games? Who is most pessimistic? Most optimistic?

Are people more accurate home or away?

The data "contains" those facts and data mining can be fascinating.

And, no I won't be doing it.

[Snowball]

Is there anyone mathematically aware
here that can answer a couple of questions for me?

The Resolved Cases Number is split into "Got Better and was discharged" plus Deaths



WORLDWIDE

391,743 RESOLVED CASES
308,653 Got Better, Discharged
083,090 Died in Hospital

That means for all confirmed cases 21.2% die (83,090/308,653)

This number creeps up slightly every hour and has risen half a percent in a day. On April 8th the number was 15.69%

Question 1: Why is the number still climbing?

Is it because there are people lingering for 2-3-4-5 even six weeks that are increasing the death count for a later day?

Or is the maths wobbly? It seems cast-iron and completely logical and is a stat used by epidemiologists.

I ask this first question because if the number really IS 20% plus, that should mean, ultimately, that 20% plus of currently unresolved confirmed cases will die, and that produces a horrendously big number.

Italy reports 41% of their confirmed cases have died