Relegation watch 22/23

[windermereROYAL]

Some people might have thought this was unthinkable a month ago but now it is looking a distinct possibility we will be in a dogfight down the bottom again for the 5th time in 6 seasons, our luck has to run out sooner or later, it`s the law of averages.
We look a team devoid of any semblance of confidence. 6 defeats in 8 games and 5 points from 9,
West brom are not staying in the bottom 3, Huddersfield won at QPR, Hull won at Cardiff, are there 3 teams worse than us? I think not.

I was hoping we could avoid this almost annual thread, but sadly not

[Zip]

I think we have to hope there are three worse teams than us again.
Wigan are in freefall. We could have done with Huddersfield and Hull losing tonight
Maybe Blackpool, Bristol City or Cardiff City.

[Jackson Corner]

We are the only ones losing every week. Rotherham win at Sheffield, Huddersfield win at QPR. Even Hull win at Cardiff. Only Wigan look slightly worse but they put a much better showing than us at Swansea. Can’t see where the next win is coming from.

[Royal_jimmy]

Its not just the defeats that concerns me. We've not really been unlucky in any of those results except maybe Luton away. Midfield looks weak and lacking spark which is strangling us from creating chances and scoring goals. Playing 5 at the back is negative and invites pressure and our full backs can't cross.

Ince needs to change it up

[Sutekh]

Its not just the defeats that concerns me. We've not really been unlucky in any of those results except maybe Luton away. Midfield looks weak and lacking spark which is strangling us from creating chances and scoring goals. Playing 5 at the back is negative and invites pressure and our full backs can't cross.

Ince needs to change it up

I’d say Burnley was unlucky, the ref even apologised afterwards for not awarding the penalty!

[Royal_jimmy]

Its not just the defeats that concerns me. We've not really been unlucky in any of those results except maybe Luton away. Midfield looks weak and lacking spark which is strangling us from creating chances and scoring goals. Playing 5 at the back is negative and invites pressure and our full backs can't cross.

Ince needs to change it up

I’d say Burnley was unlucky, the ref even apologised afterwards for not awarding the penalty!

I'll give you that one

[Zip]

We were robbed at Burnley A win there would have been a massive boost
Let's hope it doesn't prove to be a turning point.

[Sutekh]

3 actually reasonably decent teams in the next 3 games. Hull on the proverbial new management "bounce", Coventry who are pretty much winning everywhere it seems currently and Birmingham who we thought would struggle and aren't really at all. Really don't know what to expect, theoretically all are winnable but then so was Preston etc.

A month off for everyone may well initially change some of the dynamics too so plenty of unknowns to stress over while watching the World Cup farce unravel on the telly.

[Stranded]

Yes, we are in a relegation battle, which we were always likely to be and some of us, including me, thought we were going to remain clear of. However, the nature of the division this year means anyone from about 8th down is in a relegation battle currently and a play-off battle.

Coventry were bottom but win their 2 remaining games in hand and they are in the play-offs - Wigan, Sunderland and us were around the top 8 and currently struggle to buy a point.

One thing that we really can't ignore though, is the nature of the run of games we've had - it has been an undeniably tough run of games.

Since the international break we have played based on current table

24th (H) W
4th (H) D
6th (a) L
22nd (H) L
8th (a) L
20th (H) W
1st (a) L
9th (a) D
7th (H) L
5th (a) L

We have an away game to 19th to come.

I am not defending tactics or style at the moment, as it is completely clear that there needs to be a mentality shift but look at those games - not the odd result in isolation.

In a ten game run - we have played 7 games against the top 9 - 5 away and managed 2 points. We have played 3 games against teams in the bottom 5 and taken 6. The defeat being against a WBA side that most agree will pull away from the bottom 3 and were playing their first game post Bruce - on chances, we should have still got something from that - it is the only true "poor" result even if performances haven't always hit the mark of late.

We are also "unlucky" in that we go to Hull on Saturday to play them in their first home game under a returning hero manager - pretty shitty timing in many ways - though if the situation was reversed, we would expect them to turn up and do so 2-0 - so who knows.

So, I think we have enough to beat enough of the sides in the bottom half to keep just far enough away and have shown in the results v Blackburn, Norwich and lesser extent Millwall, that we can pick up enough points from the clubs at the top end to allow for the odd slip up elsewhere.

Things we need to do on the pitch though:

1. Stop trying to grow in to games/halves - all it does is give the opposition plenty of the ball and build their confidence whilst adding pressure on us to be close to perfect when we do get the ball.

2. Shoot. Occasionally.

3. Stop giving away stupid penalties. QPR should have been a point until Loum had a moment - ref could have given a pen for one of about 3 fouls in the box, Ejaria made it very easy for him.

4. Have a proper plan B - with the right personnel 3-5-2 (or variant of) is more than fine but have an effective alternative formation or 2 to exploit gaps else it becomes far too easy to play against.

5. Specifically for Hull - Do not play any player who may be going to the WC - so Loum, Hoilett, Baba and Yiadom. It just seems clear that they all have one eye on not getting injured, which I get, so drop them and give someone else a chance to show what they can do.

So long post but yes, we are in a battle but I don't think things are quite as bad or terminal as some want to think but we need the break, tweeks need to be made and we need to come back in December looking like the side we were before the last break.

[windermereROYAL]

Doesn`t get any easier after the break when Coventry come calling, top of the current away form guide and haven`t conceded in 5.

[Sanguine]

Its not just the defeats that concerns me. We've not really been unlucky in any of those results except maybe Luton away. Midfield looks weak and lacking spark which is strangling us from creating chances and scoring goals. Playing 5 at the back is negative and invites pressure and our full backs can't cross.

Ince needs to change it up

I’d say Burnley was unlucky, the ref even apologised afterwards for not awarding the penalty!

I'll give you that one

Of course if we hadn't been unlucky against Luton and Burnley, it might be four defeats from eight, and 11 points from nine games. It's only Preston where we have been truly abysmal.

[Stranded]

Doesn`t get any easier after the break when Coventry come calling, top of the current away form guide and haven`t conceded in 5.

No it doesn't but no-one knows how the break will affect sides.

The run after the return is almost as tricky as the run we've just had given we play Swansea, Norwich, QPR again in the first 6 games (along with a flying Cov, a decent Brum and an improving WBA), as well as Sheff Utd before end of Jan (Cup permitting).

So we need to pick up points from some of these games but also means that Feb onwards looks better in terms of the types of games we've regularly picked points up from.

[Royal_jimmy]

I hope our form improves but the 9 games after the world cup all look very tough. Could easily only win just 1 of those games and then they'll be big question marks over Ince's future

[windermereROYAL]

I hope our form improves but the 9 games after the world cup all look very tough. Could easily only win just 1 of those games and then they'll be big question marks over Ince's future

I counted them and yes they are very tough, the 10th game is Sunderland away, I would expect if the horrendous run continues then we will be looking for a new manager early in the new year.

[YorkshireRoyal99]

I think we will improve after the World Cup break. Ince is constantly talking about tired legs, so we've got a chance to refine what we do on the training field, bring back some bodies and have a squad fresh for Coventry. Despite our recent results, this season I'd back us against any side at home, we've had a couple of poor results (WBA and Preston), but the latter there have the best away record in the league* and West Brom have quality amongst their ranks.

If it doesn't start to improve come the New Year time, then I think the same questions will be being asked of Ince as it was Pauno, where it would almost seem a case of when, not if.

[tidus_mi2]

I think current runs will have to be discounted post-break because at that point any momentum is out of the window, including the negative momentum from our poor run, it's basically akin to starting the season fresh again, fresh legs, players returning from injury.

If we start losing consistently against teams in the bottom half I will then probably start getting very worried though.

[Stranded]

I hope our form improves but the 9 games after the world cup all look very tough. Could easily only win just 1 of those games and then they'll be big question marks over Ince's future

I counted them and yes they are very tough, the 10th game is Sunderland away, I would expect if the horrendous run continues then we will be looking for a new manager early in the new year.

Biggest difference though is gap between games and hopefully fit options in defence at least.

Whereas we have had 2 sets of 3 games in 6 days the gap between games after the break is

6 days
11 days
3
3
12 (but FA Cup in the gap)
7
7
7
7
3
4
7
7
7
4
3
14 (International Break)
6
3
5
4
7
8

So barely any scheduled 3 game weeks bar re-arranged games - this *should* help us.

[blythspartan]

This season is still going better than I’d expected. The start was brilliant but we were obviously in a false position which raised expectations. The only disappointing thing for me is not getting a win at a Burnley or a Sheff U. Even under Pauno we were able to pull off the odd shock result.

[Stranded]

This season is still going better than I’d expected. The start was brilliant but we were obviously in a false position which raised expectations. The only disappointing thing for me is not getting a win at a Burnley or a Sheff U. Even under Pauno we were able to pull off the odd shock result.

TBF, as mentioned ad infinitum we were only a terrible ref decision away from probably winning at Burnley. Still plenty of opportunity to spring a surprise or two along the way - though they will probably be more likely at home.

[Snowflake Royal]

This season is still going better than I’d expected. The start was brilliant but we were obviously in a false position which raised expectations. The only disappointing thing for me is not getting a win at a Burnley or a Sheff U. Even under Pauno we were able to pull off the odd shock result.

Is it still going better, or are our early points masking how bad it currently is?

Yes, we're still mid-table, but we'd be hard pressed to have dropped further than we have in the amount of games we've had.