The final 10

[WestYorksRoyal]

10 games left, we're on 39 points. 11 needed to get to 50, 13 needed to get to Dai proof 50. So realistically we want 4 wins, or 3 wins and a few draws. Trying to predict is a fools errand, this year we've beaten Derby and Stevenage while losing to Shrewsbury at home. But we're all fools for supporting Reading FC, so here goes (opposition league position in brackets).

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - L
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - W
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - D
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

*Bristol Rovers highly likely to be rearranged.

Would be very comfortable if we can get results in that ballpark.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

Missed out Barnsley away but hopefully we will have enough points by then.

Reckon 3 wins should be enough given form of bottom 4

[Clyde1998]

Getting anything against Derby, Bolton and Barnsley would be a bonus. Of the two other away games, two points has to be the minimum acceptable amount, with four points being the target.

Getting something from all the home matches (with the possible exception of Blackpool if they're still aiming for the play-offs on the final day) has to be the bare minimum for each individual game. Three wins from the five has to be the bare minimum across the five fixtures.

[WestYorksRoyal]

I'm not sure any individual games are "must win" or even "must not lose". We've shown we can compete with anyone in this division, so the key is being able to respond after a bad result, as we did yesterday after a very disappointing week.

That being said, beating Wycombe and Cambridge early in the run makes our route to safety much simpler.

[Snowflake Royal]

Yeah, if we look back at the previous five 'must win' games in the last eight we managed:

3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss

And in the 'free hits' we got:

1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.

So we can absolutely expect to lose an 'easy' home game and pick up a point or more from a tricky 'free hit'.

I think we can reasonably expect to pick up 11 points from the next 10 as a conservative estimate. Which would put us on 50 (48).

So we should be safe. Although we all know how well should sometimes turns out. We should have got a lot more than 1 point in that dreadful run of 8 games.

[Hendo]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - L
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - W
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - D
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - W
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - D
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

15 points for me.

[Snowflake Royal]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - D
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - L
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - L
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - D
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - D
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

Pessimistic 11 here.

[Stranded]

Last 10 games, we picked up 18pts - so sod it why not similar again:

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - D
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - W
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - D
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - D
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

W4 D4 L2. So 55/53 pts - or an on the pitch 61.

We will naturally lose a game where we don't expect it but we should fear nobody.

Following the Shrewsbury (a) debacle - which I think we all seem to take as the turning point of our season - we are 4th in the league in terms of form.

Only 5 sides have won more games than us
Only Barnsley have lost less (only one defeat!)
Only Derby have scored more than us (35 v 34)

It is only the goals against column that is a worry, that is still very much lower mid table (25 in 20 - though 7 were in 2 games)

So in short, we have it in us to be one of the best sides in the division and should fear none of those last 10.

[Tinpot Royal]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - D
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - W
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - W
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - W

20 points for me. So expect relegation!

[morganb]

My attempt at being Mystic Morg:

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - L
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - D
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - W
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - L

W4 D2 L4 = 14 points so finish on 53

[Clyde1998]

Following the Shrewsbury (a) debacle - which I think we all seem to take as the turning point of our season - we are 4th in the league in terms of form.

Only 5 sides have won more games than us
Only Barnsley have lost less (only one defeat!)
Only Derby have scored more than us (35 v 34)

It is only the goals against column that is a worry, that is still very much lower mid table (25 in 20 - though 7 were in 2 games)

So in short, we have it in us to be one of the best sides in the division and should fear none of those last 10.

I make us 7th on form since then on points per game - with only the current top six having better form in that time. Our points per game of 1.70 in the past twenty matches is equivalent to 78 points over a league season.

We're easily the most improved team in the division (in terms of ppg) since that Shrewsbury game - improving from 0.69 to 1.70. Only Oxford's form is more different to the form prior to that game - decreasing from 2.19 to 1.10.

The goals against is average for the division in that time, although we're conceding 0.5 goals per game less and scoring 0.75 goals per game more.

Most sides we have left to play have basically done as well since mid-November as they were doing before it.

[blythspartan]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - D
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - D
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - L
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - D
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - W
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - D
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

I think another 14 points is doable, but expecting to lose 2 of them.

[Mid Sussex Royal]

5 homes - 3 wins, one draw, one defeat. Probably shouldn't lose any, but allowing for one bad result.

5 aways - draw Rovers, beat Burton, lose other 3.

That gives 14 points and think if anything pessimistic on current form.

51 points including -2...I can't see the bottom 4 getting above 48. No one like Colin is going to turn up in L1 and save a team unlike last season.

[SouthDownsRoyal]

I'm not sure any individual games are "must win" .

If we are in the bottom four before the final game I’d say that game would be must win

[Hendo]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - L
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - W
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - D
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - W
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - D
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

15 points for me.

[Snowflake Royal]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - D
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - L
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - L
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - D
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - D
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - D

Pessimistic 11 here.

Bloody Mola and that last minute pen. I'd have been 3 from 3 otherwise.

[Tinpot Royal]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - D
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - W
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - W
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - W

20 points for me. So expect relegation!

[SouthDownsRoyal]

9 March: Wycombe (H) (14th) - W
12 March: Derby (A) (2nd) - D
16 March: Cambridge (H) (19th) - W
23 March*: Bristol Rovers (A) (11th) - D
29 March: Northampton (H) (12th) - W
1 April: Bolton (A) (3rd) - L
6 April: Lincoln (H) (11th) - W
13 April: Barnsley (A) (4th) - L
20 April: Burton (A) (19th) - W
27 April: Blackpool (H) (8th) - W

20 points for me. So expect relegation!

You saying we are going down?

[WestYorksRoyal]

So now it is the final 5. I think 1 more win is very likely to be enough. Ideally we don't want to go into a massive 6 pointer at Burton or a final day drama.

However, realistically I see:

Lincoln (H) - L
Rovers (A) - D
Barnsley (A) - L
Burton (A) - W
Blackpool (H) - W

Blackpool's playoff push looks likely to be over by the final day. The next 3 are tough fixtures, so we'll need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to avoid a high stakes game (or for the guys beneath us have woeful form).

[Sutekh]

Lincoln (H) - team in excellent form with everything to play for
Rovers (A) - a very difficult fixture against a side not going anywhere but they begin with B and it's midweek!
Barnsley (A) - on paper the hardest fixture left but their home form is a bit in the toilet
Burton (A) - hopefully will already be condemned but the club have a record for escapes and it may be a harder game if they were already down
Blackpool (H) - typical end of season nothing to play for fixture - hopefully