Coronavirus outbreak

[Stranded]

School closures aren't to protect the kids really, more reduce the chance of them spreading it to, say, their grandparents.

[Hound]

School closures aren't to protect the kids really, more reduce the chance of them spreading it to, say, their grandparents.

Yep I know. But by protecting the grandparents (supposedly - not sure how true that would be in reality) it could cause massive knock on effects to the kids

No easy answer. 4 months off school - as Arlene Foster suggested - is a huge call if they make it

[sandman]

Wish some people would understand that this is NOT oxf*rd "scaremongering".

This is real, it is dangerous for us all and it is only going to get worse.

[AthleticoSpizz]

Yep, Henry Westons 8.2% was sold out today

[Snowball]

Wish some people would understand that this is NOT oxf*rd "scaremongering".

This is real, it is dangerous for us all and it is only going to get worse.

THANK-you, Sandman

I am not even SLIGHTLY “scaremongering”

As for stats, the bigger the population, the more real stats become. I post the stats CURRENTLY IN THE PUBLIC DOMAIN

You can see the infections/Deaths in Italy, for example. There is no “interpretation” involved. They only conjecture is the relationship between confirmed cases and those people who are symptomless or have mild symptoms and haven’t “officially” been recorded with CV19

It may be 1:3, 1:5, 1:10 but I don’t think ANY expert has suggest 1 in 10

Nobody (probably under orders) is extrapolating the POSSIBLE total deaths

We had 60-100 Million deaths in 1918-19 when the world population was two billion and other than soldiers, there was very little international travel.

I am not remotely scared OR scare-mongering. If I get it I get it, if I die, I die.

If I die of CV19 I won’t get cancer.

But this, IMO, is the biggest thing we have ever seen. 2008 will be a blip. 9/11 a hiccup in comparison.

One thing though. Has the Chinese infection rate just STOPPED? Why? how?

[Snowball]

Non Scaremongery Stuff Just Facts

Yesterday the world passed 5,000 Deaths

TODAY (Just Today)

Time - - - Cases - - Deaths

10:13 - - 145,377 - 5429
11:53 - - 147,399 - 5534
12:13 - - 147,653 - 5537
15:13 - - 149,292 - 5609
16:33 - - 149,943 - 5610
16:53 - - 150,006 - 5614
17:13 - - 153,503 - 5614
20:33 - - 155,371 - 5802

That is almost exactly 10,000 new confirmed cases in TEN HOURS
and 373 deaths

800 deaths in 24 hours (approx)

It is just THREE WEEKS since Italy reported its first death

[Nomad_Royal]

Wow

Uk deaths jump from 11 to 21 in a single day

90,000 die every year from the Flu, but please do keep buying into the fear-mongering being peddled left and right.

Not according to this

"Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19."

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus ... influenza/

[Millsy]

Anyone going to the cinema anymore?

Yes! With thanks to the meerkats!

Numbers are very much reduced so it's easy to avoid close contact with individuals. Plenty of room in the screens themselves so you can sit where you like away from others and, dare I say it, in the premium seats! My wife and I went earlier this week and have planned to go again next week. My wife is Type 1 diabetic so may not risk it though!

Interesting thanks

[elrey]

Has anyone considered the effect on FFP of the virus and shutdown? Many clubs will post losses which are not the consequence of bad financial management. What if they exceed the £39 million loss threshold?
Will the EFL punish owners for funding these losses?

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51873519

The BBC on Rochdale's chief ex.

[elrey]

Wow

Uk deaths jump from 11 to 21 in a single day

90,000 die every year from the Flu, but please do keep buying into the fear-mongering being peddled left and right.

And 2 million could die of this.
At 6% or 7% as Wuhan and Italy have seen, and 60% get it, like Boris wants, that's 2 million dead.

[Franchise FC]

Wow

Uk deaths jump from 11 to 21 in a single day

90,000 die every year from the Flu, but please do keep buying into the fear-mongering being peddled left and right.

And 2 million could die of this.
At 6% or 7% as Wuhan and Italy have seen, and 60% get it, like Boris wants, that's 2 million dead.

Eases the ultimate pressure on public services

[Snowball]

Wow

Uk deaths jump from 11 to 21 in a single day

90,000 die every year from the Flu, but please do keep buying into the fear-mongering being peddled left and right.

And 2 million could die of this.
At 6% or 7% as Wuhan and Italy have seen, and 60% get it, like Boris wants, that's 2 million dead.

The government say it is their intent to go for herd-immunity. That is 60% or more of the population to get it.

Stick with the lowest-possible number = 60%

The population is 63 Million

60% of that is 37,800,000

The current worldwide rate of deaths per confirmed infections is 3.7%. Italy and China are much higher.

Weighed against this is a POSSIBLE (no-one actually KNOWS) 9-10 times the official number
with it but not on the books as official cases. So say, for example, the UK's 1100 official cases
"actually means there are 11,000 with the virus, and so far, "only 21 dead"

Basically divide the Wuhan/China rate (average say 7% by 11 = 0.636%

NOTHING, right?

0.636% of 37,800,000 is 240,048

240,048 UK Dead is for just 60% getting it, with an overall death rate of under 0.7% (under 1%)

The Govt were saying 80% might get it (50,400,000) and WHO thinks the overall
death rate may well be 1-2%

1% is over half a million UK dead.

2% is a million UK dead

[Snowball]

If the Govt forces confinement/isolation of all over 60s or 70s
and the herd (under OAP age) get it and get immunity (IF!)

That means that, when the OAPs are allowed out, effectively
"everyone out there" will be carrying the virus (but "immune")

But all those OAPs will NOT have immunity.

Will they try to avoid anyone that was in the herd and exposed?

Will all those OAPs get it? After all they will be totally surrounded.

Or did I miss something?

PS 17% of the population of Reading is over 65

60-64 3.67 Millions
65-69 3.40
70-74 3.25
75-79 2.24
80-84 1.67
85-89 1.02
90-99 0.58


15.83 Million of the UK's 66 Million (not 63) is 60+

About 9 Million are 69+

[Nameless]

Sorry, but this is becoming utterly counter productive and this thread is now officially off limits.
Guessing at numbers and outcomes by those with no actual knowledge doesn’t help.
Extrapolating using an obvious preexisting bias doesn’t help.
I can understand that it could get bad but I reckon some people are talking themselves into a breakdown, which helps no one.
I’m going to do sensible stuff to keep me and my family as safe as possible, with the add on that that will also help the wider community.
But constantly calculating and publishing guesses about death rates to several decimal places is not what I want to read several times a day.
Hopefully we can all get back to talking football on this football forum when the new season starts.
I hope everyone stays healthy and we don’t see the worst outcomes some are suggesting are inevitable.
In the meantime for the sake of my sanity as much as anything I’m going to isolate myself from this thread.

[Hound]

Of course with the herd-immunity the point is that 60% people who are very low risk get it. So it won’t be anything like 1% death rate that it would be for the entire population

Whether it works out like that is a different matter of course

[Royal Rother]

It seems to me that everything being done is about flattening the peak.

Everyone is going to be exposed to it so all measures are designed to ensure that there is no huge spike because that would overwhelm the NHS and result in civil unrest and a total breakdown in the economy which could take decades to recover from.

[Snowball]

Of course with the herd-immunity the point is that 60% people who are very low risk get it. So it won’t be anything like 1% death rate that it would be for the entire population

Whether it works out like that is a different matter of course

Understood, but what happens when the OAPs emerge from their
3-4-5 month isolation? Whichever way they turn "he" (or she) is
probably carrying the virus! Would it be OAP Armageddon with
a sudden upsurge of cases but 99% of them over 70s?

I'm not saying what is or isn't the case, just trying to understand.

[Royal Rother]

I think that is exactly it, yes.

Allow 3-4 months of a flattened peak for the younger elements of the population then release the oldies and have a new peak. If it all comes at once it would be completely unmanageable.

[Snowflake Royal]

Sorry, but this is becoming utterly counter productive and this thread is now officially off limits.
Guessing at numbers and outcomes by those with no actual knowledge doesn’t help.
Extrapolating using an obvious preexisting bias doesn’t help.
I can understand that it could get bad but I reckon some people are talking themselves into a breakdown, which helps no one.
I’m going to do sensible stuff to keep me and my family as safe as possible, with the add on that that will also help the wider community.
But constantly calculating and publishing guesses about death rates to several decimal places is not what I want to read several times a day.
Hopefully we can all get back to talking football on this football forum when the new season starts.
I hope everyone stays healthy and we don’t see the worst outcomes some are suggesting are inevitable.
In the meantime for the sake of my sanity as much as anything I’m going to isolate myself from this thread.

+1, there's a massive thread on AE about it, we don't need another one here.

[PieEater]

Of course with the herd-immunity the point is that 60% people who are very low risk get it. So it won’t be anything like 1% death rate that it would be for the entire population

Whether it works out like that is a different matter of course

Understood, but what happens when the OAPs emerge from their
3-4-5 month isolation? Whichever way they turn "he" (or she) is
probably carrying the virus! Would it be OAP Armageddon with
a sudden upsurge of cases but 99% of them over 70s?

I'm not saying what is or isn't the case, just trying to understand.

Google what herd immunity is, it means the herd protects the vulnerable, not that it kills them.

Herd immunity (also called herd effect, community immunity, population immunity, or social immunity) is a form of indirect protection from infectious disease that occurs when a large percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, thereby providing a measure of protection for individuals who are not immune