Coronavirus outbreak

[The Real Sandhurst Royal]

Country stats

https://www.coronavirus.video/country-stats.php

[Zip]

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

[SCIAG]

SARS, Bats

MERS, Camels

Novel-Coronavirus covid-19 traced to animal market

3 out of 3

Bird Flu

4 out of 4

There are Coronaviruses common in many species including food animals.

Most of them are relative benign most of the time

It’s effortless to confirm this.

Theoretically, at any time, transmission time humans is possible.

Viruses mutate over time

Every year more or less we get new variants of seasonal flu, new mutations and a new annual vaccine.

Where do you suppose those viruses were, on holiday?

First up, clearly working out of my notifications is not suitable as nearly everyone else here is talking more bullshit than you!

Again, I know more about this than you do. You’re not going to catch me out by raising facts I’ve already raised and properly contextualised. You’re just not understanding basic facts.

Yes, there are lots of diseases circulating in the wild. Yes, every year a few of them jump to humanity. What you said is that this one having a wild reserve means that social distancing won’t work! Look at those diseases you mentioned - how many times did they jump to humans? One. Unless something has evolved to readily infect humans (like malaria for example, or rabies) then it’s so unlikely to happen that the chances of the same virus jumping to humans twice in a year are extremely long.

Put it this way - if there are a thousand coronaviruses that circulate in animals where there is some contact with humans, and they each have a 1 in 1000 chance of jumping to humans in any year, then what are the odds of the same virus jumping twice in a year?

We need new flu vaccines because flu keeps circulating and because it mutates very quickly.

We have no idea how quickly this virus mutates, but if we distance properly (all over the world mind, so realistically it won’t happen) then it won’t circulate and the mutation rate stops mattering (unless it’s off-the-scale so that everyone effectively has a different disease! But that isn’t happening).

[andrew1957]

Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.

What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.

If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.

I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.

Good luck.

[Wycombe Royal]

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.

[Jagermesiter1871]

Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.

What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.

If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.

I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.

Good luck.

I understand - so what you're saying is buy like 2000 toilet rolls right?

[Snowball]

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.

One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”

In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.

If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)

If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered

People are looking at

Confirmed Infections
Deaths

Quite understandable!

ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections

To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered

Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.

Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy

Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak

Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say

[Snowball]

My first day of freedom and I delivered supplies to two locked down people in Hammersmith

Got a parking ticket for £130 for a seven minute stop

[Wycombe Royal]

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.

One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”

In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.

If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)

If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered

People are looking at

Confirmed Infections
Deaths

Quite understandable!

ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections

To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered

Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.

Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy

Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak

Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say

But it is also down to how many peiople are being tested. If a country is only testing those seriously ill then they will have a higher death rate, if a country is doing a more thorough testing, i.e those with some milder symptons, then their death rate would be lower.

There are many moving parts and there is no right answer despite your attempts to find one.

I wonder if Shane Long has been tested?

I currently have a temperature of 38.6...should i be concerned......still working though (at home).

[Snowball]

Shane Long infected?

It wouldn’t dare!

[Snowball]

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.

One thing to look at is “Number Recovered”

In China this is quite high because they were peaking Xmas onward. Even so there about 7,000 still NOT recovered.

If all those were to die then the death rate would be 12-13% (one in eight)

If you look at the UK, ATM less than 100 confirmed cases have recovered

People are looking at

Confirmed Infections
Deaths

Quite understandable!

ATM the world death rate is 4% or so for CONFIRMED infections

To make a complete tally we need to add “Still Sick” and Recovered

Many who are still very sick and will die, as I said. Country figures are not comparable if their early cases were at different times and their total infections curve were not the same.

Hence the UK/US is said to be 2-3 weeks “behind” Italy

Simply, there has been more time for Italians to die. We need to look at comparisons 2-3 weeks post-peak

Differences later in the pandemic may be down to Health Care quality but right now it’s hard to say

But it is also down to how many peiople are being tested. If a country is only testing those seriously ill then they will have a higher death rate, if a country is doing a more thorough testing, i.e those with some milder symptons, then their death rate would be lower.

There are many moving parts and there is no right answer despite your attempts to find one.

I wonder if Shane Long has been tested?

I currently have a temperature of 38.6...should i be concerned......still working though (at home).

Agreed. UK death rate should jump substantially now if we only test I’ll people and medics

A better statistic might be “Percentage of Population Dying” that is physical and ignores test regimes etc

[Aeroguide]

I reiterate:
Snowbollocks..overbearing, arrogant pc scumbag that has it’s head so far up it’s own backside, it cannot and will not see the light for the shite.

[RoyalBlue]

So Italy is suffering a death rate double the rest of the world it seems. Is there a specific reason for that? Is it due to more elderly being infected? Is there an age breakdown for those affected?

Could just be due to a different testing regime, as the reported death rate is against the amount of positive cases identified.

Isn't that the same way most, if not all, countries are reporting it? I know it has led to the UK's rate looking alarmingly high because discontinuing tests other than for hospitalised cases means far lower numbers of positive cases recorded as opposed to the number that likely exist across all groups. Sadly a greater proportion of hospitalised cases are likely to die. The percentage death rate in the UK should therefore drop a bit once there is a wider spread testing regime.

[Sutekh]

All football now postponed until 30th April

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51962751

[Singing Defective]

Wonder if England follows Wuhan in repurposing stadiums as temp hospitals. If so, I hope not to see the Mad Stad until there are some players to watch...

[Snowball]

Today's 1PM Update for UK



Last Four Days

16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%

What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far

Cases.

Lines 1-2-3 latest I could find that day.
Line 4 09:00 Offical Government site. Cases at 09:00

Deaths

Deaths timed at 13:00 19th

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus ... r-of-cases

based on growth each day, I was expecting 3,200 Confirmed Cases and 140 Deaths by midnight.

The exponential growth so far seems to be higher.

[tmesis]

Last Four Days

16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%

What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far

Fewer tests (as a % of people reporting symptoms) possibly account for the higher rate.

Deaths will also lag behind cases by a good while. People getting it today might not die for two weeks.

The actual mortality rate might well be lower than 1%, which is a good thing, but would still be horrific if it spread uncontrolled

[Snowball]

Last Four Days

16th = 1,543 - 055 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.56%
17th = 1,950 - 071 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.64%
18th = 2,626 - 104 Deaths Death-Rate = 3.96%
19th = 3,269 - 144 Deaths Death-Rate = 4.41%

What I note from the above is that the death-rate appears to be climbing steadily each day, so far

Fewer tests (as a % of people reporting symptoms) possibly account for the higher rate.

Deaths will also lag behind cases by a good while. People getting it today might not die for two weeks.

The actual mortality rate might well be lower than 1%, which is a good thing, but would still be horrific if it spread uncontrolled

Understood

My test took 9 days to get a result (longest case I know of is 11) so today's 643 new positives, is from tests around about the 10th March when tests were still ongoing.

Many of the deaths we are starting to see are from people infected 10-20 days ago

Incidentally, I have been trying to find more information on the efficacy of the test as it is currently. One doctor contact and a couple of nurse contacts and one journalist tell me that the test is pretty shitty. When I had my test done I just presumed the result would be 100% accurate.

Reading round (and only solid sites, journals, government reports or major newspapers I discovered that in China they were getting as many as six (SIX) consecutive negatives for patients who were clearly very ill and that they typical patient produced a positive on the third case. Things were so ridiculous that the official cases in China were NOT simple test-positives but were decided on SYMPTOMS.

(Washington Post)

This might go some way to explaining why the Chinese death-rate for official confirmed cases seems half of Italy's rate. Perhaps China was treating Covid-19 Cases and OTHER flu cases?

I don't know if there is more than one test-kit type. Yesterday, after my doctor disagreed with my negative (big surprise for me) I searched and found that UK tests were producing no false-positives but 40% of negative results were false negatives.

I haven't heard that question being asked. "Prime Minister, is the test 100% accurate?"

[Snowball]

My daughter and her BF are in lockdown in Hammersmith.

Went there today to get a shopping list, get stuff and return.

As posted elsewhere got a parking ticket for 7 minutes of £130 (Yes I'll appeal)


Went to Tesco War Zone. Got what I could. In line for the tills was packed like sardines.

When you REACHED the till there was black and yellow DO NOT CROSS tape.

So, after spending 10-20 minutes in a sardine can, THEN, (just while you are putting stuff on the belt)
nobody is supposed to be within six feet of you. Of course, while paying, you are about three feet
from a shop-assistant (manning the till) who is completely unprotected and dealing with hundreds of people
per day. An utter farce. I fear for these decent souls. Their exposure is immense and way beyond the call.
I expect a huge toll of cash-till assistants compared to whatever the final toll is.

======

Saw a shop stocked with sanitisers and sprays etc.

Except that it was ZERO ALCOHOL and marked as anti-bacterial
small-print, doesn't kill virus. Selling like hot-cakes of course

[Westwood52]

Having been in financial services for the last 40 years I have worked through the crashes of 1987, 2001 and 2008 and a number of smaller incidents, but this one truly has the potential to be worse.

What bothers me is that the Governments/Central Banks seem to be acting very reactively and slowly and this is making matters worse. I would say that whether the global economy gets through this without either a collapse or high/hyperinflation (as Governments print unlimited amounts of currency) is 50-50 at best.

If the worst happens then far more people across the world could die from an economic collapse than from COVID-19. I really hope that I am wrong on this but there is a chance life might never go back to the way that it was. Maybe it will be simpler and better than our current mad stressful existence.

I would wish all my fellow nobbers well and would hope that you keep virus free if at all possible. Suggest you all spend as much time as possible with your families, appreciate all that you have and keep short accounts with both God and man.

Good luck.

Apparently 500000 people die during a recession.