Coronavirus outbreak

[Snowball]

Cases very bad today, but deaths very fractionally down

102,897 New Cases (Up 23% on yesterday)

5,828 New Deaths (Down 1% on yesterday)

[Snowball]

Cases very bad today, but deaths very fractionally down

102,897 New Cases (Up 23% on yesterday)

5,828 New Deaths (Down 1% on yesterday)

Forgot that France had an “administrative” one-off hike in their numbers (previously mentioned) of about 18,000 which would mean that yesterday’s Cases would have been about 85,000

[tmesis]

Yes. There is still ICU availability within the NHS at the moment which is a big positive. We are in surge and Italy appear to have peaked. Our hospitals don’t appear to be struggling to the same degree as Italy were a couple of weeks ago. A couple of grim weeks coming up but hopefully we will then be over the worst.

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........

It might also be a case of immigrant households having more people in than average.

As for "God will protect", the highest infection rate per capita? The Vatican.

[sandman]

I think one problem in Italy was that cases were very concentrated in relatively small areas, whereas we seem to have a more even spread. Spain also had an incredibly high proportion in the Madrid area.

West Midlands recodrd higher deaths than London in past 24 hours. Some of this may be cultural, i.e. religous. Which does appear to be a reoccuring theme for some of the hotspots. France. Spain, Italy and India for eg. God will protect........

It might also be a case of immigrant households having more people in than average.

As for "God will protect", the highest infection rate per capita? The Vatican.

Clearly the Lord is punishing them for touching all those kids in his name.

[Snowball]

Deaths are down today but I think that's an anomaly or "weekend admin slack"

More importantly is that NEW CASES have jumped by a record 5,903 cases in a day. That is a daily total that exceeds the cumulative total reached on March 22nd. That 5,903 Cases at 20.6% mortality will mean 1,216 deaths in 14 days time (April 19)

Also worrying is that the crude death rate (cumulative deaths over cumulative cases), always a significant under-estimate has reached 10.32%. For whatever reason this is almost TWICE the world-rate (5.4%) and almost exactly double the rate when China is excluded (5.2%)

This 10% might be what Windy was referring to yesterday?

The worldwide hospital death rate (Deaths/Completed Cases) is now 20.6%. There is no reason to suppose that the UK's rate is lower.

It should be noted that not all confirmed cases end up in hospital. Are there stats on Hospital admissions for Covid-19? If, for example, a third of confirmed cases DON'T go into hospital, then that would mean 31% of people being hospitalised are dying. If half manage not to go to hospital then the death rate for those going into hospital is 41%. Fearsome figures.

[Snowball]

The figure, the maximum number now possible for unconfirmed cases/confirmed cases has fallen.

It will fall every day for at least another 2-3 weeks

355 UK
358 Spain
485 Italy

As explained before, that 358 for Spain is ABSOLUTE. If the ration was 358:1 that would be MORE than the total population of Spain

The way the numbers are progressing, it is highly likely the multiplier will be <100

For now I will work on an optimistic multiplier of 99:1 (arguing that testing is only catching 1% of actual infections)

[muirinho]

It should be noted that not all confirmed cases end up in hospital. Are there stats on Hospital admissions for Covid-19? If, for example, a third of confirmed cases DON'T go into hospital, then that would mean 31% of people being hospitalised are dying. If half manage not to go to hospital then the death rate for those going into hospital is 41%. Fearsome figures.

Might be of interest looking at Ireland's figures. Of the 4,014 confirmed cases as of midnight 02/04/20, 1,118 required hospitalisation, i.e., 27.8%

158 of those 1118 required ICU treatment. (14.13% of hospitalised cases, 3.93% of confirmed cases)

Ireland are testing a lot more per head of population than the UK (they ran into a bit of a backlog in the last few days, so sent some 2000 or so tests to Germany to speed things up). So possibly the age profile of those tested is a bit different, and they are catching more confirmed cases with milder symptoms. Whereas in the UK it seems you have to be a royal, or be at deaths door, to get tested.

Data from here.
https://www.gov.ie/en/service/0039bc-vi ... dashboard/

[Snowball]

Thanks for that

27.8% ?

If only a third of UK confirmed cases are getting hospitalised and 20.6 of all CC’s are dying, that would mean 62% of people entering hospital were leaving in a box.

I hope to God it’s not as bad as that!

I really want to see a stat for number of confirmed cases being hospitalised

[muirinho]

Thanks for that

27.8% ?

If only a third of UK confirmed cases are getting hospitalised and 20.6 of all CC’s are dying, that would mean 62% of people entering hospital were leaving in a box.

I hope to God it’s not as bad as that!

I really want to see a stat for number of confirmed cases being hospitalised

It may of course be different medical regimes and decisions on who to hospitalise. If you look at the number of people admitted to ICU in Irish hospitals out of hospitalised cases, or indeed confirmed cases, it's a pretty low percentage. It's worth noting that all the Irish figures include people confirmed positive who are looked after in care homes, without being hospitalised at all. The UK figures currently probably don't include these, they definitely don't include deaths in care homes as yet.

[Snowball]

The WorldoMeter has added some columns


Here are the UK Rankings

49th Tests per Million Population. Switzerland, (11th) pro-rata is doing 6 times as many tests as us 18,256 v 2,880

11th Total Tests. Just over half of Spain's

[Snowball]

These are some of the worst-off countries in terms of Confirmed Cases per Million

To explain. First column is the country's stat.

Second column is what the UK would be on in terms of that country's percentage cases but based on our population

10,000 677,933 1.00% 1% of POP (for illustration: Vatican approaching 1%)


8,739 per Million - - 592,446 0.87% Vatican
7,839 per Million - - 531,432 0.78% San Marino
6,484 per Million - - 439,572 0.65% Andorra
4,479 per Million - - 303,646 0.45% Luxembourg
4,355 per Million - - 295,240 0.44% Iceland
3,704 per Million - - 251,106 0.37% Faeros
3,057 per Million - - 207,244 0.31% Gibraltar

2,797 per Million - - 189,618 0.28% - - - SPAIN
2,438 per Million - - 165,280 0.24% - - - Switzerland
2,061 per Million - - 139,722 0.21% - - - Italy
1,699 per Million - - 115,181 0.17% - - - Belgium
1,378 per Million - - 093,419 0.14% - - - France
1,338 per Million - - 090,707 0.13% - - - Austria
1,162 per Million - - 078,776 0.12% - - - Germany

Remember all the major countries above will RISE to at least double their current figure

0,704 UK at the moment


1% of Pop = 677,933 Infected x Current Death Rate of 20.6% is 139,564 UK Dead

Phrased another way take Spain. Currently on 2,797 Cases per million. If the UK reaches 2797 Case per Million it will have 189,618 Cases, almost four times what we have currently. Multiply that by the current death rate for Confirmed Cases is 39,061 Dead

[Snowball]

The figure, the maximum number now possible for unconfirmed cases/confirmed cases has fallen.

It will fall every day for at least another 2-3 weeks

UPDATE

355 UK
358 Spain
358 Italy

REMARKABLE the way these numbers have come together. So the Max, "proven" by 3 countries, all in the west, is 358. This will keep falling and will be under 300 withinn a week.

[Snowball]

The algorithm predicts


22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April


On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57


69,281 Predicted
69,273 Actual (Corrected by WorldoMeter 00:10)

[Jagermesiter1871]

Can you IM me when things start to improve please snowball? I can't keep coming into this thread and getting more depressed.

[leon]

The algorithm predicts


22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April


On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57


69,281 Predicted
69,346 Actual

Snowball can you take a fcuking chill pill?

[Snowball]

The algorithm predicts


22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April


On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57


69,281 Predicted
69,346 Actual

Snowball can you take a fcuking chill pill?

I'm quite chilled, thanks.

[leon]

The algorithm predicts


22-Mar - - - Cases = 332,577 - - - 05-Apr - - - 69,281 Deaths @ 23:59 5th April


On 69,346 Deaths at 23:57


69,281 Predicted
69,346 Actual

Snowball can you take a fcuking chill pill?

I'm quite chilled, thanks.

Well you're not making anyone else feel that way.

[Old Man Andrews]

Good god this thread is horrific. Some of the worst content on the internet.

[Dr_Hfuhruhurr]

Might be of interest looking at Ireland's figures. Of the 4,014 confirmed cases as of midnight 02/04/20, 1,118 required hospitalisation, i.e., 27.8%

158 of those 1118 required ICU treatment. (14.13% of hospitalised cases, 3.93% of confirmed cases)

Ireland are testing a lot more per head of population than the UK (they ran into a bit of a backlog in the last few days, so sent some 2000 or so tests to Germany to speed things up). So possibly the age profile of those tested is a bit different, and they are catching more confirmed cases with milder symptoms. Whereas in the UK it seems you have to be a royal, or be at deaths door, to get tested.

Data from here.
https://www.gov.ie/en/service/0039bc-vi ... dashboard/

Excellant webpage - Thanks for the link. Ive been looking for stats like this for a while.

The two problems with extrapolating from the UK data is that it is inherently biased towards severe cases for two reasons
1. The UK is taking the advice that unless you present with severe symptoms, hospitalisation will do nothing for you
2. To get a test, you basically have to go to a hospital.

This means our apparent death rate looks a lot worse than it is. I mean the absolute numbers are currently quite alarming, but the rates themselves are utterly meaningless. They arent even a fair reflection of how good the NHS is at keeping people alive.

[Hound]

Might be of interest looking at Ireland's figures. Of the 4,014 confirmed cases as of midnight 02/04/20, 1,118 required hospitalisation, i.e., 27.8%

158 of those 1118 required ICU treatment. (14.13% of hospitalised cases, 3.93% of confirmed cases)

Ireland are testing a lot more per head of population than the UK (they ran into a bit of a backlog in the last few days, so sent some 2000 or so tests to Germany to speed things up). So possibly the age profile of those tested is a bit different, and they are catching more confirmed cases with milder symptoms. Whereas in the UK it seems you have to be a royal, or be at deaths door, to get tested.

Data from here.
https://www.gov.ie/en/service/0039bc-vi ... dashboard/

Excellant webpage - Thanks for the link. Ive been looking for stats like this for a while.

The two problems with extrapolating from the UK data is that it is inherently biased towards severe cases for two reasons
1. The UK is taking the advice that unless you present with severe symptoms, hospitalisation will do nothing for you
2. To get a test, you basically have to go to a hospital.

This means our apparent death rate looks a lot worse than it is. I mean the absolute numbers are currently quite alarming, but the rates themselves are utterly meaningless. They arent even a fair reflection of how good the NHS is at keeping people alive.

Its good, but unless I am missing a link, there is quite a lot of impt data (imo) missing

Such as age profile of those hospitalised, and died from it.

Its also slightly strange how so few people have been tested positive under 24 comparatively. When does testing take place? Is it on showing some symptoms? If so, reinforces the view that people under that age generally show very few symptoms

One of the thing that interests me the most going forward is whether we continue to treat all people of all ages the same in terms of lockdowns. Esp when I think the death rate of those diagnosed with it and under 50 is around 0.3. Add in those without symptoms and maybe its far less.