Coronavirus outbreak

[Hendo]

EGR - I am not sure how you are constantly failing to quote Snowball properly

Do you mean what the quote looks like, or the contents that I'm quoting?

Just what it looks like, did it when quoting me just then as well!

[Emmer Green Royal]

[quote="Hendo"][quote="Emmer Green Royal"][quote="Hendo"]EGR - I am not sure how you are constantly failing to quote Snowball properly [/quote]

Do you mean what the quote looks like, or the contents that I'm quoting?[/quote]

Just what it looks like, did it when quoting me just then as well![/quote]

I don't know - I just hit the quote button and type after the end quote. My own quotes have always looks odd to me> I've used different computers, different browsers. Don't know!

[Snowball]

A study conducted by researchers at Oxford University says that, according to its model, more than half of the UK population has already been infected by coronavirus. That is, the ratio could be lower than 2:1. Basing your extrapolations on a figure of 100:1, when no evidence is provided to justify this figure, means that the conclusions are meaningless.

Imperial College's virology department (the main scientific analyses being used by UK Govt) is led by Neil Fergusson

Who published this:

Ferguson believes the number of undocumented infections is not nearly as high as a recent estimate by researchers at Oxford University, who suggested that half of the British population is already infected. If that were true, the CFR for COVID-19 in the U.K. would be something like 0.002 percent, making the disease much less deadly than the seasonal flu, which has an estimated CFR of 0.1 percent.

(Me here: EXACTLY. Their figures suggested that Covid-19 was ONE FIFTIETH as lethal as Seasonal Flu. Yeah, of course it is. That's why we've closed down the country - for a mild cold.


Fergusson again:

"I don't think it's consistent with the observed data," Ferguson said of the Oxford estimate, citing the results from comprehensive testing of Italian villages and the Diamond Princess cruise ship's passengers and crew. Raising the reproduction number from 2.5 to 3 or more nevertheless implies that the number of undocumented infections is higher than Ferguson's group originally thought.

But then what would a professor of virology know, eh?

[Snowball]

Imperial College

Paper

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... ort-13.pdf



Predict that between 5.9% and 15.2% of twelve countries might have been infected (with a mean of 9.8%.

Before you get excited, Italy and Spain are way ahead of the UK and their infection and death rates skew the average. For example, based on Sunday's figures, Spain's infection rate was FOUR TIMES that of the UK

05.9% times 67,793,325 is 03,999,806 UK infections
09.8% times 67,793,325 is 06,643,746 UK infections
15.2% times 67,793,325 is 10,304,585 UK infections

Current UK deaths are 5,903. There is a lag in deaths, but at this point the death rate would be, for the LOWEST estimate, 0.15% just one and a half times the lethality of seasonal flu. At the middle figure this would mean that seasonal flu is eleven times more lethal than coronavirus.
At the top end the numbers would mean that seasonal flu is 16.6 times more deadly than Covid-19



At that 5.9% level (4m having it) the ratio of unseen:confirmed is 4m:47,806 or 84:1 making Corona = Seasonal Flu

The UK "Attack Rate" is given as 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%]

Possible - - - Actual - - - Ratio
0,813,520 - - 47,806 - - 17.02
1,830,420 - - 47,806 - - 38.29
3,864,220 - - 47,806 - - 80.83

[Snowball]

Updated with today's figures

UK Cases now 51,608

The UK "Attack Rate" is given as 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%]

Possible - - - Actual - - - Ratio
0,813,520 - - 51,608 - - 15.76
1,830,420 - - 51,608 - - 35.47
3,864,220 - - 51,608 - - 74.88

Spain's Max has dropped to 343 (it will be much lower eventually)

The UK's can be calculated

We have tested 260,445, 1 in every 268 and 19.82% of those tested positive,608

260,445 100.00% Total Tests
208,837 080.18% Total Negative
051,608 019.82% Total Positive


Apply that 19.82% to the total UK population you get 13,436,637 maximum infected ATM. We have spotted 51,608 of those.

13,385,029 :51,608 equals a ratio of 259:1

259:1 Maximum UK
346:1 Maximum Spain

As stated previously, these numbers are dropping every day and they are 95% certain to go under 100:1

All the above is based on the ridiculous idea that the general population, random people, could have an infection rate equal to 19.82%

It will be amazing if ATM it was a third of that

[Emmer Green Royal]

[quote="Snowball"][quote="Snowball"][quote="Emmer Green Royal"]


A study conducted by researchers at Oxford University says that, according to its model, more than half of the UK population has already been infected by coronavirus. That is, the ratio could be lower than 2:1. Basing your extrapolations on a figure of 100:1, when no evidence is provided to justify this figure, means that the conclusions are meaningless.[/quote][/quote]

Imperial College's virology department (the main scientific analyses being used by UK Govt) is led by Neil Fergusson

Who published this:

[b]Ferguson believes the number of undocumented infections is not nearly as high as a recent estimate by researchers at Oxford University, who suggested that half of the British population is already infected. If that were true, the CFR for COVID-19 in the U.K. would be something like [u][b]0.002 percent[/b][/u], making the disease much less deadly than the seasonal flu, which has an estimated CFR of 0.1 percent.[/b]

[i][b](Me here: EXACTLY. Their figures suggested that Covid-19 was ONE FIFTIETH as lethal as Seasonal Flu. Yeah, of course it is. That's why we've closed down the country - for a mild cold.
[/b][/i]

[size=150]Fergusson again:[/size]

[b][u]"I don't think it's consistent with the observed data[/u]," Ferguson said of the Oxford estimate, citing the results from comprehensive testing of Italian villages and the Diamond Princess cruise ship's passengers and crew. Raising the reproduction number from 2.5 to 3 or more nevertheless implies that the number of undocumented infections is higher than Ferguson's group originally thought.[/b]

But then what would a professor of virology know, eh?[/quote]

Until a very large number of people are tested we just won't know. I don't know, and you don't know. Your 100:1 number is a guess. You can't extrapolate any real information from that.

[Snowball]

Clearly, you don't under sampling

[Emmer Green Royal]

[quote="Snowball"]Clearly, you don't under sampling[/quote]

Attack me if you want (with your biased samples), but I politely made the point that you have not provided solid evidence to substantiate your claims about large numbers of people dying.

You trash the work of Oxford University because it doesn't fit your beliefs, but you quote Imperial College to support you. Was that the same Neil Fergusson whose previous work on CJD has been discredited?

[Snowball]

Attack me if you want (with your biased samples), but I politely made the point that you have not provided solid evidence to substantiate your claims about large numbers of people dying.

I have provided categorical logic. For example the limit on Spain.

There is not a doctor on this PLANET who thinks Coronavirus is less lethal than seasonal flu. Not ONE.

But if OVER 50% of the UK population, that's 34 MILLION people (what you are quoting)

That means 34,000,000 have or have had the virus. Actually it's HAD because that claim was made a while ago. This is "proof"

5,373 deaths from 34,000,000 infections means a death-rate of 0.015803% making Coronavirus 7 times WEAKER than seasonal flu. That is absolutely BONKERS!

If you don't think that is proof, you need treatment.

[Snowball]

BTW


According to you, and the Oxford clowns "Over half of the UK have had Coronavirus"

So over half of the population of Reading has had Coronavirus!!

So over half of the population of HobNob has had Coronavirus. Shout out folks!

So over half of the 650 MPs in Westminster have had Coronavirus. (I think about a dozen are self-isolating but just a handful have been diagnosed with actual Covid)... remember "over half" That means, if Oxford are right 326+ MPs have had Coronavirus.


And to go back to logic, we have had over a quarter of a million of Coronavirus tests = 252,958. Half of that is 126,479

OVER half is 126,480 or higher. But we have TESTED and only 51,608 have had it. Less than 20%

[Nameless]

BTW


According to you, and the Oxford clowns "Over half of the UK have had Coronavirus"

So over half of the population of Reading has had Coronavirus!!

So over half of the population of HobNob has had Coronavirus. Shout out folks!

So over half of the 650 MPs in Westminster have had Coronavirus. (I think about a dozen are self-isolating but just a handful have been diagnosed with actual Covid)... remember "over half" That means, if Oxford are right 326+ MPs have had Coronavirus.


And to go back to logic, we have had over a quarter of a million of Coronavirus tests = 252,958. Half of that is 126,479

OVER half is 126,480 or higher. But we have TESTED and only 51,608 have had it. Less than 20%

I reckon when amateurs start calling experts ‘clowns’ because they think being able to put numbers on a spreadsheet means they ‘understand’ it might just be time to take a timeout.

Even I, as a complete ignoramus, can spot the stupid illogicality of the above rant.

Chill out guys, you are turning this into a willy waving competition.

[Franchise FC]

BTW


According to you, and the Oxford clowns "Over half of the UK have had Coronavirus"

So over half of the population of Reading has had Coronavirus!!

So over half of the population of HobNob has had Coronavirus. Shout out folks!

So over half of the 650 MPs in Westminster have had Coronavirus. (I think about a dozen are self-isolating but just a handful have been diagnosed with actual Covid)... remember "over half" That means, if Oxford are right 326+ MPs have had Coronavirus.


And to go back to logic, we have had over a quarter of a million of Coronavirus tests = 252,958. Half of that is 126,479

OVER half is 126,480 or higher. But we have TESTED and only 51,608 have had it. Less than 20%

If ever we needed proof that you don’t understand statistics and sampling it’s this.
Over half the population of the country COULD be true even if there were NO cases in Reading
Is that enough bold and large ?

[Old Man Andrews]

EGR - I am not sure how you are constantly failing to quote Snowball properly

Yeah this is the real issue here. It is making an already massivelty unreadable thread even more unreadable.

[Simmops]

BTW


According to you, and the Oxford clowns "Over half of the UK have had Coronavirus"

So over half of the population of Reading has had Coronavirus!!

So over half of the population of HobNob has had Coronavirus. Shout out folks!

So over half of the 650 MPs in Westminster have had Coronavirus. (I think about a dozen are self-isolating but just a handful have been diagnosed with actual Covid)... remember "over half" That means, if Oxford are right 326+ MPs have had Coronavirus.


And to go back to logic, we have had over a quarter of a million of Coronavirus tests = 252,958. Half of that is 126,479

OVER half is 126,480 or higher. But we have TESTED and only 51,608 have had it. Less than 20%

MY BRAIN!!!!! MY oxf*rd BRAIN!!!!!
IT HURTS JUST READING THIS!!!!

OXFORD CLOWNS?!?!?!?!?!1!?
Half the population DOES NOT mean half of Reading and certainly DOES NOT MEAN HALF OF HOBNOB!!!!

AGHGHGGHGHGHGHGGHGHGASHGHHGHGGHGHGGHGHGHGGHGHGHGHGH

[BR0B0T]

[quote="Snowball"][quote="Snowball"]


The range using the two methods are

[size][quote]



63,950 <<<<<<<Min Deaths Estimate based on Deaths / Completed Cases 21.0%

64,650 <<<<<<< Actual Deaths = Cumulative Cases Day-14 x 21.23%

66,387 <<<<<<< Max Deaths Estimate from Cumulative Cases for Day-14 x 21.8% (extrapolated from last 4 days)

[size][quote]

I agree

[BR0B0T]

Imperial College's virology department (the main scientific analyses being used by UK Govt) is led by Neil Fergusson

Who published this:

Ferguson believes the number of undocumented infections is not nearly as high as a recent estimate by researchers at Oxford University, who suggested that half of the British population is already infected. If that were true, the CFR for COVID-19 in the U.K. would be something like 0.002 percent, making the disease much less deadly than the seasonal flu, which has an estimated CFR of 0.1 percent.

(Me here: EXACTLY. Their figures suggested that Covid-19 was ONE FIFTIETH as lethal as Seasonal Flu. Yeah, of course it is. That's why we've closed down the country - for a mild cold.


Fergusson again:

"I don't think it's consistent with the observed data," Ferguson said of the Oxford estimate, citing the results from comprehensive testing of Italian villages and the Diamond Princess cruise ship's passengers and crew. Raising the reproduction number from 2.5 to 3 or more nevertheless implies that the number of undocumented infections is higher than Ferguson's group originally thought.

But then what would a professor of virology know, eh?

Until a very large number of people are tested we just won't know. I don't know, and you don't know. Your 100:1 number is a guess. You can't extrapolate any real information from that.

see it should work

[BR0B0T]

[quote="Snowball"]Don't know if there has been a computer glitch in the data collection for both the John Hopkins site and WorldoMeter but

The rise in new cases from midnight to 0600/0700 is usually quite low,

4,202
1,688
3,000
1,688
2,969
2,973
3,324
5,031
3,885
4,205
1,259

about 3,100 overnight average

but this morning 22,115
which is stratospherically different.
[size]

EDIT = 22791 at 08:20 What's going on?

It may be that all countries overnight decided to add in Nursing Home and Home deaths, but if not, WTF?




EDIT

There IS something weird happening

The WorldoMeter spreadsheet shows 1,661 extra cases since 00:00 GMT 1,118,304 Total Cases = +1,661

but the difference between last night's close (1,096,130) and this morning's total (1,118,202) is that 22,072[quote]

where as this one should break

[BR0B0T]

[quote="Snowball"][quote="Emmer Green Royal"]


A study conducted by researchers at Oxford University says that, according to its model, more than half of the UK population has already been infected by coronavirus. That is, the ratio could be lower than 2:1. Basing your extrapolations on a figure of 100:1, when no evidence is provided to justify this figure, means that the conclusions are meaningless.[quote]

That is some TERRIBLE mathematics!

The UK Population is approximately 68,000,000

Half of that is 34,00,000. That's how many people you are saying has it! For God's sake 60% is considered the herd-immunity level

The officially confirmed cases number is 47,806 Cases

34,000,000:47,806 is a ratio of 711:1[size] (Yesterday's numbers)

Not only is that bonkers but please explain: if half the population has it, when you test people WITH symptoms, in hospital, dead, dying, back from a crisis area, or had a contact with a known sufferer the percentage is (yesterday) 24.45%

If there really were half of the population with it, we'd get 97K cases from 194,000 tests, but if we were testing people who are NOT "randoms" but with serious symptoms, dead etc we would surely get something around 75% not 24%

If the 195,524 test were TOTALLY random they would have found 97,762 cases

================================================================

As for "no evidence" for my numbers. I have posted plenty. Spain, for example has 2,888 Confirmed Cases per million, a total of 135,082 Cases. The population, the TOTAL population of Spain is 46,750,098. The ratio between the TOTAL population and the number of confirmed cases is 46,750,098:135,082 is 346[size]. That means if every single person in the country has it (absolutely ridiculous of course) the number, the maximum POSSIBLE number is 346:1, half of the Oxford 711:1

Or, look at the UK. It would be ludicrous to believe that the Confirmed Cases (tests are aimed at likely cases) would produce a number LESS than a random 195,524 people from the untested population. So, wildly saying the general population rate IS 24.45% (anything higher defies logic) that would give a total of about 17 Million people. (Actually 16,541,571)

The ratio of 16,541,571:47,806 is 1:347[size]

Interesting Spain based on actual cases v population produces 1:346. Doing the UK a different way gives 1:347

346:1
347:1[size]

that is the most extreme possible ratio[quote][quote][quote]

'greed!

[Old Man Andrews]

A study conducted by researchers at Oxford University says that, according to its model, more than half of the UK population has already been infected by coronavirus. That is, the ratio could be lower than 2:1. Basing your extrapolations on a figure of 100:1, when no evidence is provided to justify this figure, means that the conclusions are meaningless.

[BR0B0T]

[quote="Emmer Green Royal"][quote="Snowball"][quote="Snowball"][quote="Emmer Green Royal"]


A study conducted by researchers at Oxford University says that, according to its model, more than half of the UK population has already been infected by coronavirus. That is, the ratio could be lower than 2:1. Basing your extrapolations on a figure of 100:1, when no evidence is provided to justify this figure, means that the conclusions are meaningless.[quote][quote]

Imperial College's virology department (the main scientific analyses being used by UK Govt) is led by Neil Fergusson

Who published this:

Ferguson believes the number of undocumented [color=#B00B5]infections is [color]not nearly as high as a recent estimate by researchers at Oxford University, who suggested that half of the British population is already infected. If that were true, the CFR for COVID-19 in the U.K. would be something like 0.002 percent, making the disease much less deadly than the seasonal flu, which has an estimated CFR of 0.1 percent.

(Me here: EXACTLY. Their figures suggested that Covid-19 was ONE FIFTIETH as lethal as Seasonal Flu. Yeah, of course it is. That's why we've closed down the country - for a mild cold.


[size="BBC"]Fergusson again:[size]

"I don't think it's consistent with the observed data," Ferguson said of the Oxford estimate, citing the results from comprehensive testing of Italian:: villages and the [pc]Diamond[/unt] Princess cruise ship's passengers and crew. Raising the reproduction number from 2.5 to 3 or more nevertheless implies that the number of undocumented[color] infections is higher than Ferguson's group originally thought.

But then what would a professor of virology know, eh?[quote]

Until a very large number of people are tested we just won't know. I don't know, and you don't know. Your 100:1 number is a guess. You can't extrapolate any real information from that.[quote]