Relegation

[NathStPaul]

From a L1 perspective, if we drop we will be a big fish, no doubt about it - 20 years in the top 2 divisions will ensure that - there will be a massive percentage of fans and players involved who won't know as anything but a Champ/PL club.

From an attracting players perspective, our turnover will shrink but will still likely be one of the highest in L1 esp if we sell a few players too and - most importantly - we will have one of, if not, the best training facilities in the division. Yes there will be some other big clubs in there - whoever doesn't go up of Weds, Ipswich, Bolton, Derby for example but certainly from a Free Agent perspective - we should have a decent chance of signing most players who could/should be performing at the top level in L1.

In the Champ, we may find it harder to make headway. There is an argument that could be made that we could build a team better equipped for the Champ in L1 by using our plus points to attract young players who are already capable of playing at the top of L1, who could in a year or two be Champ ready - ideally with us.

Think a lot of it will be down to the type of manager we can attract. Can't imagine we are going to want to pay compensation for anyone highly rated so we are looking at out of work managers with a track record of performing well in League 1 and ideally getting teams promoted.

[Stranded]

From a L1 perspective, if we drop we will be a big fish, no doubt about it - 20 years in the top 2 divisions will ensure that - there will be a massive percentage of fans and players involved who won't know as anything but a Champ/PL club.

From an attracting players perspective, our turnover will shrink but will still likely be one of the highest in L1 esp if we sell a few players too and - most importantly - we will have one of, if not, the best training facilities in the division. Yes there will be some other big clubs in there - whoever doesn't go up of Weds, Ipswich, Bolton, Derby for example but certainly from a Free Agent perspective - we should have a decent chance of signing most players who could/should be performing at the top level in L1.

In the Champ, we may find it harder to make headway. There is an argument that could be made that we could build a team better equipped for the Champ in L1 by using our plus points to attract young players who are already capable of playing at the top of L1, who could in a year or two be Champ ready - ideally with us.

Think a lot of it will be down to the type of manager we can attract. Can't imagine we are going to want to pay compensation for anyone highly rated so we are looking at out of work managers with a track record of performing well in League 1 and ideally getting teams promoted.

Agree that the manager will be key and attracting someone that people want to play for, alongside the training facilities, will be a massive boost but whoever it is, we should be in a position to attract the better players at L1 level for their style - if, as expected, we drop.

Doesn't guarantee success mind.

[Royal_jimmy]

For those who think we'll bounce back quickly if relegated, it's worth remembering that half our squad are on loan or are OOC. We may have a team next year with only Yiadom, Azeez, McIntyre and Holmes in it + a load of newbies. We'll be limited on who we could bring in due to the low wage cap barring average league one players. There's not many academy boys ready either. The chances of us being promoted within 2-3 years are slim.

No fan should ever want their team relegated, just because we might beat Northampton instead of drawing/losing to Stoke

[NathStPaul]

Captain Doom has spoken.

[Hound]

For those who think we'll bounce back quickly if relegated, it's worth remembering that half our squad are on loan or are OOC. We may have a team next year with only Yiadom, Azeez, McIntyre and Holmes in it + a load of newbies. We'll be limited on who we could bring in due to the low wage cap barring average league one players. There's not many academy boys ready either. The chances of us being promoted within 2-3 years are slim.

No fan should ever want their team relegated, just because we might beat Northampton instead of drawing/losing to Stoke

All that’s true if we stay up. Just the guys who are staying around aren’t really champ standard either

[Dirk Gently]

But, we can make more use of Academy kids as it won't be such a great step up for them, hopefully.

[PATRIQT]

But, we can make more use of Academy kids as it won't be such a great step up for them, hopefully.

This is what I'm hoping for. We need a rebuild and we have the likes of Ehib' and Clarke who look handy strikers for that level. Abrefa at right back and some promising lads in midfield. This will get my juices flowing far more than signing random punts from the SPL.

[Dirk Gently]

But, we can make more use of Academy kids as it won't be such a great step up for them, hopefully.

This is what I'm hoping for. We need a rebuild and we have the likes of Ehib' and Clarke who look handy strikers for that level. Abrefa at right back and some promising lads in midfield. This will get my juices flowing far more than signing random punts from the SPL.

Yep, or second-rate overseas journeymen who aren't good enough to play at the top level and who probably didn't even know of Reading's existence until their agent told then that he'd not been able to find anyone bigger or better for them.

[PATRIQT]

And Boyce-Clark looks the bollocks in goal. Huge talent. If we don't give him a go, he'll be off for pennies.

[Stranded]

For those who think we'll bounce back quickly if relegated, it's worth remembering that half our squad are on loan or are OOC. We may have a team next year with only Yiadom, Azeez, McIntyre and Holmes in it + a load of newbies. We'll be limited on who we could bring in due to the low wage cap barring average league one players. There's not many academy boys ready either. The chances of us being promoted within 2-3 years are slim.

No fan should ever want their team relegated, just because we might beat Northampton instead of drawing/losing to Stoke

All that’s true if we stay up. Just the guys who are staying around aren’t really champ standard either

Except it's not wholly true for reasons I have already mentioned re L1.

We will have a budget that will be designed to keep us under FFP rules - the L1 rules will actually help that.

As per every other team in the division, we have to keep our wage budget under 60% of our turnover - with the exception of players who signed a minimum of a 3 year deal prior to September '22.

Looking at a couple of sources, the club with the biggest wage bill is Sheff Wed who pay around 9m per year. If our turnover drops say 20%, then to be in line with the rules we could pay around 7,2m to player who are new or didn't sign a 3 year plus deal. That would make us one of the top payers in the division. Not a guide to success but the top 6 or so clubs in the division this year are the top 6 or so payers.

[Greatwesternline]

For those who think we'll bounce back quickly if relegated, it's worth remembering that half our squad are on loan or are OOC. We may have a team next year with only Yiadom, Azeez, McIntyre and Holmes in it + a load of newbies. We'll be limited on who we could bring in due to the low wage cap barring average league one players. There's not many academy boys ready either. The chances of us being promoted within 2-3 years are slim.

No fan should ever want their team relegated, just because we might beat Northampton instead of drawing/losing to Stoke

All that’s true if we stay up. Just the guys who are staying around aren’t really champ standard either

Except it's not wholly true for reasons I have already mentioned re L1.

We will have a budget that will be designed to keep us under FFP rules - the L1 rules will actually help that.

As per every other team in the division, we have to keep our wage budget under 60% of our turnover - with the exception of players who signed a minimum of a 3 year deal prior to September '22.

Looking at a couple of sources, the club with the biggest wage bill is Sheff Wed who pay around 9m per year. If our turnover drops say 20%, then to be in line with the rules we could pay around 7,2m to player who are new or didn't sign a 3 year plus deal. That would make us one of the top payers in the division. Not a guide to success but the top 6 or so clubs in the division this year are the top 6 or so payers.

I dread to think the amount of surgery we will have to make to the squad to meet L1 FFP.

[tidus_mi2]

All that’s true if we stay up. Just the guys who are staying around aren’t really champ standard either

Except it's not wholly true for reasons I have already mentioned re L1.

We will have a budget that will be designed to keep us under FFP rules - the L1 rules will actually help that.

As per every other team in the division, we have to keep our wage budget under 60% of our turnover - with the exception of players who signed a minimum of a 3 year deal prior to September '22.

Looking at a couple of sources, the club with the biggest wage bill is Sheff Wed who pay around 9m per year. If our turnover drops say 20%, then to be in line with the rules we could pay around 7,2m to player who are new or didn't sign a 3 year plus deal. That would make us one of the top payers in the division. Not a guide to success but the top 6 or so clubs in the division this year are the top 6 or so payers.

I dread to think the amount of surgery we will have to make to the squad to meet L1 FFP.

Considering we must be ~£16m now and losing Moore and potentially Puscas in the Summer and that rule others have already mentioned about players who were already signed on 3 year or longer contracts being exempt from the wage cap, I feel like it's not going to be that big of an issue to stay within FFP.

[Greatwesternline]

Except it's not wholly true for reasons I have already mentioned re L1.

We will have a budget that will be designed to keep us under FFP rules - the L1 rules will actually help that.

As per every other team in the division, we have to keep our wage budget under 60% of our turnover - with the exception of players who signed a minimum of a 3 year deal prior to September '22.

Looking at a couple of sources, the club with the biggest wage bill is Sheff Wed who pay around 9m per year. If our turnover drops say 20%, then to be in line with the rules we could pay around 7,2m to player who are new or didn't sign a 3 year plus deal. That would make us one of the top payers in the division. Not a guide to success but the top 6 or so clubs in the division this year are the top 6 or so payers.

I dread to think the amount of surgery we will have to make to the squad to meet L1 FFP.

Considering we must be ~£16m now and losing Moore and potentially Puscas in the Summer and that rule others have already mentioned about players who were already signed on 3 year or longer contracts being exempt from the wage cap, I feel like it's not going to be that big of an issue to stay within FFP.

I think of most relevant is owners can simply gift revenue to the club to avoid these rules. If the owner seriously wants Reading back up again in a hurry, he can gift £10m and we blow everyone out of the league "turnover" wise.

I dread to think what Reading's turnover would be in League 1. 60% of that will be a low number indeed.

[South Coast Royal]

Wasn't sure which topic to post this under but as this is probably the most depressing one here is a bit more.

Within the top 4 tiers of English football excluding cup games current winless run:

Top Oxford-17
2nd Reading 11

Most league goals conceded in the EFL over the past 5 seasons:-

TopMorecambe-349
4th Reading and QPR-330

Most league games lost within the top 4 tiers over the last 5 seasons:-

Top-Rochdale (now non-league)
3rd Reading and QPR 98

No wonder we are depressed.

[Fezza]

For those who think we'll bounce back quickly if relegated, it's worth remembering that half our squad are on loan or are OOC. We may have a team next year with only Yiadom, Azeez, McIntyre and Holmes in it + a load of newbies. We'll be limited on who we could bring in due to the low wage cap barring average league one players. There's not many academy boys ready either. The chances of us being promoted within 2-3 years are slim.

No fan should ever want their team relegated, just because we might beat Northampton instead of drawing/losing to Stoke

100% this. In addition to this any saleable assets will be lost for less than they’re worth now. (Although we’ve been very poor at selling our players for some time)

[YorkshireRoyal99]

Wasn't sure which topic to post this under but as this is probably the most depressing one here is a bit more.

Within the top 4 tiers of English football excluding cup games current winless run:

Top Oxford-17
2nd Reading 11

Most league goals conceded in the EFL over the past 5 seasons:-

TopMorecambe-349
4th Reading and QPR-330

Most league games lost within the top 4 tiers over the last 5 seasons:-

Top-Rochdale (now non-league)
3rd Reading and QPR 98

No wonder we are depressed.

In regards to the winless run, if we do go down, I think the games that will have cost us are the Birmingham, Hull, Bristol City and Preston games. Ordinarily, we have been strong at home to bottom half sides with a lot of our wins coming against those sides and we have dropped potentially 4 points there. Preston and Bristol City you'd have thought we could have potentially got more from, even if our away record is so meagre.

I do wonder what changed. On the field, we didn't change that much under Ince. May have hindered more than it helped at times, but we were always "doing enough" to stay up either way. Even away from the field, the mentality was always about survival. Again, probably hindered more than it helped but I wonder if the points deduction had a bigger impact on the squad than we maybe realised.

[tmesis]

I do wonder what changed. On the field, we didn't change that much under Ince. May have hindered more than it helped at times, but we were always "doing enough" to stay up either way. Even away from the field, the mentality was always about survival. Again, probably hindered more than it helped but I wonder if the points deduction had a bigger impact on the squad than we maybe realised.

Show me a club with a large number of injuries, and you'll almost always see a team doing much worse than expected.

Without the excessive injury problems, we'd probably have stayed up comfortably.

We had injuries, Ince losing his way, and the points deduction, making a perfect storm at exactly the wrong time.

[Lower West]

I do wonder what changed. On the field, we didn't change that much under Ince. May have hindered more than it helped at times, but we were always "doing enough" to stay up either way. Even away from the field, the mentality was always about survival. Again, probably hindered more than it helped but I wonder if the points deduction had a bigger impact on the squad than we maybe realised.

People are not machines. Over time the mental energy must have slowly been sapped away. Perhaps Ince was sacked as he finally snapped and spoke his mind to the owner. Paid off but signed a NDA. The players likewise will all have their personal views of events and be turning their thoughts towards what's best for them in the future. So few will be left here. Feels like a party where there's nothing left to drink. Many are already drifting.

[Snowflake Royal]

Our side, crap as it has been, has competed just about in the champ. If we hadn’t got the 6 points we’d prob been fine

So why would it double drop? Hardly like the players leaving at the end of the year (guessing Ejaria, Meite, Joao, Moore, Dann, Loum, Hendrick, Fornah, Baba, Casadei, Long, Hoilett) have massively contributed have they?

Keep Sarr, Holmes, Lumley maybe, Yiadom, Carroll, Mbengue, Azeez, Ehib, McIntyre, NGW and Ince (ok that’s unlikely) and we’d be fine in div1. They’ll all be good players at that level

A fellow Reading fan at work suggested to me we're more likely to drop to League Two than get promoted to the Championship, I disagreed, I feel we will always be one of the bigger sides in League One and the bottom of that division is incredibly bad, I feel we'd only drop to League Two if we were placed into administration.

If I was to rougeometer it, I'd say the odds next season for us in L1 would be:

Auto promotion: 5%
Play Offs: 13%
Top Half: 56%
Bottom Half: 25%
Relegation: 1%

[stealthpapes]

In regards to the winless run, if we do go down, I think the games that will have cost us are the Birmingham, Hull, Bristol City and Preston games. Ordinarily, we have been strong at home to bottom half sides with a lot of our wins coming against those sides and we have dropped potentially 4 points there. Preston and Bristol City you'd have thought we could have potentially got more from, even if our away record is so meagre.

I do wonder what changed. On the field, we didn't change that much under Ince. May have hindered more than it helped at times, but we were always "doing enough" to stay up either way. Even away from the field, the mentality was always about survival. Again, probably hindered more than it helped but I wonder if the points deduction had a bigger impact on the squad than we maybe realised.

The winless run starts immediately after it gets leaked we're due another points deduction.
That must have destroyed morale. "What's the point, if we're just going to get relegated by fiat".