Coronavirus outbreak

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SCIAG
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 28 Mar 2020 15:53

Royal Rother Call out a black person as being incompetent and the racist card gets (gently) played. It’s pathetic tbh.

Can’t even single out black people without being criticised, complains elderly Windsor man. :wink:

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Royal Rother
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 28 Mar 2020 15:59

:D

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Ascotexgunner » 28 Mar 2020 16:46

SCIAG
Royal Rother And then you look across the floor and see Diane Abbott.

Surprises me that Abbott is the one picked out as “stupid” given that she’s by far the most intelligent figure on the British left.

Quick comparison:
Jeremy Corbyn was given every advantage in life and dropped out of his degree in Trade Union studies at North London Polytechnic.

Diane Abbott came from a working class immigrant background but got into grammar school, and then into Cambridge University, where she graduated with a 2:2 in History.

Obviously education is not everything, but the evidence of Abbott’s alleged stupidity seems to be that she once said “thousand” when she meant “million”, while the likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, and Long-Bailey can make gaffe after gaffe without getting the same thrown at them.

Do we need to put you in the same box as Kes and Strap?


She also said Mao had some good ideas......honestly a 2:2 in modern history is disgusting. It means she attended classes virtually and that was it.
What a great parent she is as well...looking at what her son had done she should be nowhere near the political arena.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Singing Defective » 28 Mar 2020 16:56

Ascotexgunner
SCIAG
Royal Rother And then you look across the floor and see Diane Abbott.

Surprises me that Abbott is the one picked out as “stupid” given that she’s by far the most intelligent figure on the British left.

Quick comparison:
Jeremy Corbyn was given every advantage in life and dropped out of his degree in Trade Union studies at North London Polytechnic.

Diane Abbott came from a working class immigrant background but got into grammar school, and then into Cambridge University, where she graduated with a 2:2 in History.

Obviously education is not everything, but the evidence of Abbott’s alleged stupidity seems to be that she once said “thousand” when she meant “million”, while the likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, and Long-Bailey can make gaffe after gaffe without getting the same thrown at them.

Do we need to put you in the same box as Kes and Strap?


She also said Mao had some good ideas......honestly a 2:2 in modern history is disgusting. It means she attended classes virtually and that was it.
What a great parent she is as well...looking at what her son had done she should be nowhere near the political arena.


At least DA would be relatively unlikely to declare emergency powers in perpetuity, unlike some of her comrades. Also Cambridge may be only the second oldest university in the UK, but for a 2:2 you still need to be capable of at least writing your name. Most of the real dross have Pass degrees.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 28 Mar 2020 17:55

Ascotexgunner
SCIAG
Royal Rother And then you look across the floor and see Diane Abbott.

Surprises me that Abbott is the one picked out as “stupid” given that she’s by far the most intelligent figure on the British left.

Quick comparison:
Jeremy Corbyn was given every advantage in life and dropped out of his degree in Trade Union studies at North London Polytechnic.

Diane Abbott came from a working class immigrant background but got into grammar school, and then into Cambridge University, where she graduated with a 2:2 in History.

Obviously education is not everything, but the evidence of Abbott’s alleged stupidity seems to be that she once said “thousand” when she meant “million”, while the likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, and Long-Bailey can make gaffe after gaffe without getting the same thrown at them.

Do we need to put you in the same box as Kes and Strap?


She also said Mao had some good ideas......honestly a 2:2 in modern history is disgusting. It means she attended classes virtually and that was it.
What a great parent she is as well...looking at what her son had done she should be nowhere near the political arena.


Tbf her son clearly has mental health issues, which again I'm sure can't be easy for her.

Not that I have any idea about political ability and merits.


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by SCIAG » 28 Mar 2020 17:57

Ascotexgunner
SCIAG
Royal Rother And then you look across the floor and see Diane Abbott.

Surprises me that Abbott is the one picked out as “stupid” given that she’s by far the most intelligent figure on the British left.

Quick comparison:
Jeremy Corbyn was given every advantage in life and dropped out of his degree in Trade Union studies at North London Polytechnic.

Diane Abbott came from a working class immigrant background but got into grammar school, and then into Cambridge University, where she graduated with a 2:2 in History.

Obviously education is not everything, but the evidence of Abbott’s alleged stupidity seems to be that she once said “thousand” when she meant “million”, while the likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, and Long-Bailey can make gaffe after gaffe without getting the same thrown at them.

Do we need to put you in the same box as Kes and Strap?


She also said Mao had some good ideas......honestly a 2:2 in modern history is disgusting. It means she attended classes virtually and that was it.
What a great parent she is as well...looking at what her son had done she should be nowhere near the political arena.

On Mao, it was worse than that - she said "on balance he did more good than harm", which is hilariously wrong. But it's also par for the course with socialists - they'll support anyone who has gone against the US or UK in the last 75 years even if they're not remotely left wing (see Corbyn's praise for Hezbollah).

On Cambridge, lol, maybe a 2:2 from the University of Reading in 2020 involves phoning in a bunch of 50% essays but Cambridge in the 70s was a very different place. Even then, phoning in 50% essays is more than Mr Corbyn managed to do.

As for her parenting, just looked it up. I'm not normally a fan of judging people on their family members. Her son went to private school and got into Cambridge, and then from there onto the Diplomatic Fast Stream which is incredibly competitive. Obviously his education benefited from his wealthy parents. It seems like last year he had a genuine mental health crisis for which he was hospitalised, and around that time he committed several serious criminal offences. When a 27-year-old man has a mental health crisis, I'm not inclined to automatically blame the mother's parenting.

I didn't vote Labour in the last election despite living in a marginal seat with a strong Labour candidate, because I didn't want the far lefties to take my vote as a vote for them. But Abbott is by far the least objectionable of Labour's resident Marxists imo.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 28 Mar 2020 23:20

Possible Good News?


The last three days, Worldwide New Cases have flattened

26-March - - - 63,408
27-March - - - 63,489
28-March - - - 68.054


The rise is large at between 60,000 and 70,000 per day, but the exponential growth has not been there for these three days at least.

We may see another surge if India/Africa etc catch fire, but the above looks promising.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 29 Mar 2020 16:09

Snowball Possible Good News?


The last three days, Worldwide New Cases have flattened

26-March - - - 63,408
27-March - - - 63,489
28-March - - - 68.054


The rise is large at between 60,000 and 70,000 per day, but the exponential growth has not been there for these three days at least.

We may see another surge if India/Africa etc catch fire, but the above looks promising.


Countries running out of tests?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by windermereROYAL » 29 Mar 2020 17:36

Fact of the matter is this virus isn`t going anywhere, until a vaccine is developed it`s always going to have a chance of flaring up again. uncertainty will be around for at least another year, can we really see full football stadiums again in that time?


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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Zip » 29 Mar 2020 17:42

windermereROYAL Fact of the matter is this virus isn`t going anywhere, until a vaccine is developed it`s always going to have a chance of flaring up again. uncertainty will be around for at least another year, can we really see full football stadiums again in that time?


I think by about August/September I can see stadia being open to fans. The Govt will want to get back to some kind of normality by then. It will lead to another surge in cases though although hopefully at a lower scale to what we are seeing now as more and more will have immunity having already had the virus.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 29 Mar 2020 18:38

Maybe there will also be some treatment by then which makes it less deadly.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 29 Mar 2020 19:28

Jagermesiter1871 Maybe there will also be some treatment by then which makes it less deadly.


Now the world knows how the gay community felt in the 80s.

Not a great feeling is it?

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 29 Mar 2020 19:30

Zip
windermereROYAL Fact of the matter is this virus isn`t going anywhere, until a vaccine is developed it`s always going to have a chance of flaring up again. uncertainty will be around for at least another year, can we really see full football stadiums again in that time?


I think by about August/September I can see stadia being open to fans. The Govt will want to get back to some kind of normality by then. It will lead to another surge in cases though although hopefully at a lower scale to what we are seeing now as more and more will have immunity having already had the virus.


If they are there will be social distancing and much reduced capacities.

Two seats apart at least, no family groups, no oldies...

Just the sad pcunts


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Royal Rother
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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Royal Rother » 29 Mar 2020 19:37

I’ll be ok watching Windsor.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 29 Mar 2020 20:15

Uke
Jagermesiter1871 Maybe there will also be some treatment by then which makes it less deadly.


Now the world knows how the gay community felt in the 80s.

Not a great feeling is it?


Urm no.. Slightly loaded comment.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 29 Mar 2020 22:24

Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Possible Good News?


The last three days, Worldwide New Cases have flattened

26-March - - - 63,408
27-March - - - 63,489
28-March - - - 68.054


The rise is large at between 60,000 and 70,000 per day, but the exponential growth has not been there for these three days at least.

We may see another surge if India/Africa etc catch fire, but the above looks promising.


Countries running out of tests?


No Idea, but

With 1Hr 40 of today left, looks like it's dropped a little

26-March - - - 63,408
27-March - - - 63,489
28-March - - - 68.054
29-March - - - 57,773 (Edit, Midnight)

At this time the previous three nights it was 61,476, 61,626, c66,000. Starting to look like less Confirmed Cases, for whatever reason. Sorry, hardly "less" but the exponential growth has gone (or appears to have gone...)
Last edited by Snowball on 30 Mar 2020 00:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Jagermesiter1871 » 29 Mar 2020 23:54

Snowball
Jagermesiter1871
Snowball Possible Good News?


The last three days, Worldwide New Cases have flattened

26-March - - - 63,408
27-March - - - 63,489
28-March - - - 68.054


The rise is large at between 60,000 and 70,000 per day, but the exponential growth has not been there for these three days at least.

We may see another surge if India/Africa etc catch fire, but the above looks promising.


Countries running out of tests?


No Idea, but

With 1Hr 40 of today left, looks like it's dropped a little

26-March - - - 63,408
27-March - - - 63,489
28-March - - - 68.054
29-March - - - 55,473 <<<<

At this time the previous three nights it was 61,476, 61,626, c66,000. Starting to look like less Confirmed Cases, for whatever reason. Sorry, hardly "less" but the exponential growth has gone (or appears to have gone...)


I've stopped even bothering to look at confirmed cases as its such a poor and incomparable stat. Deaths is far more useful and that is still growing massively, although there is of course a lag so hopefully in a few weeks time we might start to see a drop.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 00:23

Jagermesiter1871

I've stopped even bothering to look at confirmed cases as its such a poor and incomparable stat. Deaths is far more useful and that is still growing massively, although there is of course a lag so hopefully in a few weeks time we might start to see a drop.


Although different countries may have different testing regimes, the average is very indicative. So, for example, the percentage relationship of cumulative cases to cumulative deaths is "stable". It's ALMOST fixed but creeping up over time at the rate of about 0.1% a day. It was

4.02% 17-Mar
4.04% 18-Mar*
4.06% 19-Mar
4.15% 20-Mar
4.26% 21-Mar
4.36% 22-Mar
4.36% 23-Mar
4.47% 24-Mar
4.53% 25-Mar
4.53% 26-Mar
4.58% 27-Mar
4.65% 28-Mar
4.71% 29-Mar

13 Days, a growth of 0.69 or 0.053 per day. In other words tomorrow you can look at the cumulative cases, multiply by 5% and you will be quite close. Incidentally the non-China number has a very similar growth, from 4.04% to 4.8% (different because the Chinese numbers have been virtually static for weeks now) 13 days to creep up 0.076% at a rate of just under 0.06 per day.

THE Stat though is, take the number of "Completed Cases". These are Discharged + Died. The ratio of these two (Deaths:Recovered) is again creeping up, but noticeably faster than Cases

13.92%
15.69%
16.32%
17.01%
17.85%
18.35%

This stat means 18% of those going into hospital don't make it out alive. It looks likely top go over 20%. How much beyond 20% is hard to guess.



*Interpolated, messed-up data



EDIT: Incidentally the model I'm using predicted 720,000 Cumulative Cases at midnight tonight. Actual number was 720,416

It had predicted 790,000 for close of play tomorrow but the curve seems to be flattening, so I would say the cumulative will be 775,000-780,000

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Snowball » 30 Mar 2020 00:42

The UK Ratios don't look promising

DAILY: Cumulative Cases, Cumulative Deaths, Percentage

01,543 0,055 3.56%
01,950 0,071 3.64%
02,626 0.104 3.96%
03,269 0,144 4.41%
03,983 0,177 4.44%
05,018 0,233 4.64%
05,683 0,281 4.94%
06,650 0,335 5.04%
08,077 0,422 5.22%
09,529 0,463 4.86%
11,658 0,578 4.96%
14,579 0,759 5.21%
17,089 1,028 6.02%
19,522 1,228 6.29%
22,241 1,408 6.33% 30th (EDIT)

Our third column is climbing much quicker than the world average, even if you exclude China's figures. Tomorrow's( 30th) Cumulative Cases should reach 21,500-22,000. EDIT Actual was 22,241. If it's the lower number (21,500) and TODAY's ratio of 6.3% (EDIT) that predicts 1,401 deaths. If the ratio climbs to 7% it would be 1,557 (EDIT - wrong column copied)

Overall that suggests a jump of 173 Daily Deaths at the low end 322 at the high end. I hope the curve flattens soon. (EDIT)

The change in reporting time, dislocating Cases and Deaths makes things harder to see until things settle. (EDIT > And I note the Govt said they had missed the weekend out-of-hospital deaths)
Last edited by Snowball on 31 Mar 2020 08:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus outbreak

by Uke » 30 Mar 2020 01:07

Jagermesiter1871
Uke
Jagermesiter1871 Maybe there will also be some treatment by then which makes it less deadly.


Now the world knows how the gay community felt in the 80s.

Not a great feeling is it?


Urm no.. Slightly loaded comment.


With hindsight I agree it’s a classic case of White Cis-Male Privilege Straightsplaining at its worst.

We don’t have the vilification, ostracism, homophobia and the rest to cope with.

We have it much, much better than they did.

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